Políticos y Economía: Los argentinos están de mal humor

Datos correspondientes a la medición realizada en forma online durante junio de 2018 por las encuestadoras D´Alessio Irol y Berenztein sobre el Humor Social y Político. * Se incluyeron las respuestas de 1.477 encuestados, mayores de 18 años, de todo el país. ⇒ Los sucesos económicos recientes acentuaron la crítica […]

Datos correspondientes a la medición realizada en forma online durante junio de 2018 por las encuestadoras D´Alessio Irol y Berenztein sobre el Humor Social y Político.

* Se incluyeron las respuestas de 1.477 encuestados, mayores de 18 años, de todo el país.

Los sucesos económicos recientes acentuaron la crítica del presente y el pesimismo hacia el futuro.

Los votantes del actual Gobierno sienten que aún no recibieron lo que esperaban, pero mantienen su confianza en la gestión.

  Pese a la leve caída en junio, siguen vigentes los proyectos personales que implican dinero y la intención de afrontarlos con ingresos propios y el apoyo de las tarjetas.

 Inflación e inseguridad continúan siendo los temas preocupantes más recurrentes. Muestran interés por la corrupción, con foco en el pasado o el presente según posicionamiento político. Electores de Cambiemos: sostienen reclamos por movilizaciones/piquetes y subsidios indiscriminados; Votantes del FPV hacen mayor hincapié en la economía cotidiana: tarifas, desempleo y deudas.

El acuerdo con el FMI no sería un motivo de celebración. Se trataría de una mala decisión a rechazar (según opositores) o de un mal necesario para evitar una crisis, por lo cual todo el arco político debería acompañar (según oficialistas).

 ⇒ Cae la imagen de las principales figuras políticas en el último mes. De todas maneras, los dirigentes de Cambiemos (encabezados por Vidal, Carrió y Macri) conservan una distancia significativa sobre los opositores.

SITUACIÓN ECONÓMICA

Se registra un balance negativo respecto del presente y una visión mayoritariamente pesimista sobre el futuro. De todas maneras, el análisis de la actualidad aún no se traslada por completo hacia adelante.

Quienes no votaron a Macri sostienen una postura de desaprobación sobre el presente y el futuro.

Los electores oficialistas registran críticas más mesuradas sobre la actualidad, combinadas con esperanzas.

La economía hoy: votantes oficialistas dieron un salto negativo en mayo y su crítica crece levemente en junio.

Los opositores incrementan la intensidad de su reclamo (suba del “mucho peor”).

PROYECTOS

Pese a la leve caída en junio, siguen vigentes los proyectos personales que implican algún gasto/inversión de dinero.

Planean costear sus proyectos con ingresos propios más el apoyo de las tarjetas de crédito.

TEMAS QUE MÁS PREOCUPAN

El foco de las preocupaciones sigue estando en la economía cotidiana

2- inflación en general

3- aumentos específicos

4- presión impositiva

5- inseguridad.

Le siguen temas políticos como  la corrupción, presente y pasada, y los subsidios indiscriminados.

Un tercio de la población manifestó intranquilidad por las fuentes laborales.

GESTIÓN DE GOBIERNO

Se afianza la evaluación negativa de la gestión del Gobierno nacional (61%), frente a la positiva (36%)

El gobierno logra detener la caída de la evaluación de su gestión entre electores propios (65% favorables).

El recrudecimiento de la postura de los opositores –indecisos que migran a la desaprobación- explica el crecimiento de los valores críticos en junio. (91% desfavorables entre votantes del FPV).

Un tercio de los habitantes del país  cree que el gradualismo fue una política acertada, aunque en su mayoría señalan puntos débiles (hipótesis principal entre votantes de Cambiemos).

La opinión preponderante entre electores opositores es que la gestión económica del Gobierno de Macri no fue gradualista.

ACUERDO CON EL FMI: ASPECTOS ECONÓMICOS

El regreso del FMI genera alerta en los ciudadanos.

Los electores de Macri en 2015 se muestran confiados, aunque podría ser un acuerdo “necesario antes que deseado” (29% “La MEJOR opción”; 37%La ÚNICA opción) . Quienes no eligieron al actual Gobierno registran un alto nivel de crítica (83% “La PEOR  opción”).

Los encuestados no se muestran seguros de que el acuerdo con el Fondo sirva para evitar una crisis. Entre oficialistas, se observa una confianza con reservas. Los opositores reafirman que la llegada del FMI no tendrá efectos favorables para el país.

Los ciudadanos no tienen argumentos sólidos para considerar que el arreglo con el FMI traerá beneficios en variables claves de la economía como el crecimiento y -menos aún- la inflación. (¿Qué cree que pasará con la economía a partir de este acuerdo? -> Crecerá menos: 55%) (¿Y con respecto a la Inflación? -> Será mayor a la esperada: 77%)

IMAGEN Y POSICIONAMIENTO DE DIRIGENTES

La idea de crisis podría afectar negativamente a la imagen de los principales políticos en actividad (casi TODOS bajaron).

Lavagna consigue su mejor evaluación desde su ingreso al tracking (+55%).

Entre las figuras que no forman parte de la política, el neurólogo Facundo Manes logra un peso relevante de aprobación, a diferencia de Tinelli.

Mauricio Macri (54% Negativa / 41% Positiva) 

María Eugenia Vidal (+53% / -42%)  

 Elisa Carrió (+44% / -51%)   

 Cristina Fernández (+30% / -64%)   

Por D´Alessio Irol y Berenztein

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Políticos y Economía: Los argentinos están de mal humor

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