El `mejor alumno´ en serios problemas

Por Eduardo L. Fracchia * 

Chile desde 1983 es un país que, basado en sólidas instituciones económicas, ha desplegado una economía consistente. Es una economía abierta basada fuertemente en cobre con precio no muy alentador y con disminución de la productividad de las minas de este recurso en relación a los yacimientos peruanos.
El desempleo es relativamente bajo y la pobreza se ha reducido en forma sustantiva. Claramente emerge una fuerte clase media que es un fenómeno reciente en Chile habituado a dos espacios sociales preponderantes en el marco de una cultura de fuerte tenor clasista. La alfabetización aumentó de modo sensible durante los últimos 50 años y descendió la mortalidad infantil.

El crecimiento en Chile se viene amesetando, pero sigue siendo importante. América Latina creció al 2.5% desde 1980 y Chile, en cambio, lo hizo a un ritmo de 4.3 %, aunque como ocurrió en la región, en esta década Chile bajó la tasa de crecimiento. Hay equilibrio fiscal, incluso dispone de un fondo de estabilización para usar en períodos recesivos.

Se hicieron 20 reformas a la Constitución, durante los 5 gobiernos de centro izquierda y dos de centro
derecha. Sin problemas graves y con una sociedad que eligió en la última elección la centroderecha y sin
crisis económicas, se presentaron estos acontecimientos que han sorprendido con la analogía de un
verdadero “mayo francés” como señala Juan Llach. Así al principio se pensó en una “guerra” en palabras
del propio Presidente e incluso en el armado bolivariano de esta revuelta social tan intensa. Luego se hizo un diagnóstico más abarcador y autocrítico. En su momento Chile aspiró a un fuerte cambio social que le permitió ganar la elección de 1970 a un frente de izquierda que fue expulsado del gobierno por un golpe de Estado.

El sospechoso de esta rebelión popular, en una primera visión, fue el conflicto distributivo. Tenemos un coeficiente de Gini que no ha cambiado sustantivamente en 40 años. Es un clásico reclamo a pesar de
que hay mayor movilidad social. Por citar un ejemplo de movilidad, el 80 % de los que están en la
Universidad sus padres no son universitarios.

Chile, en sus desafíos estructurales, debe reinventar su matriz productiva demasiado centrada en
recursos naturales en un contexto donde el 1% de la población tiene el 26% del PIB y
existe además una fuerte concentración empresarial. Tocqueville siempre planteó que la desigualdad es
fuente de tensiones sociales. No alcanza con bajar la pobreza.

Como antecedente, pero de una demanda puntual, recordamos las manifestaciones por la gratuidad de la enseñanza universitaria que condujo, entre otros, Camila Vallejo. Hubo también manifestaciones en
contra de los administradores de fondos de pensión en 2016. En relación al sector sanitario Isapres, que
representa al sector salud, sigue con el mismo esquema. Se está exigiendo una reducción de la jornada
laboral de 45 a 40 horas semanales

Pareciera que el reclamo fue muy juvenil, en una juventud que no concurre en forma masiva a las urnas. Es un reclamo aspiracional para tener acceso a más derechos. Se trata de una clase media que sufre bajos salarios, jubilaciones reducidas, Universidad y salud caras y están muy endeudados los chilenos.
En Brasil se dio una situación análoga cuando gobernaba el PT aunque de menor intensidad ante una suba de servicios públicos análogo al fatídico incremento del subterráneo que actuó como disparador.
La reacción masiva hace del tema una cuestión de fondo, una verdadera cuestión de Estado, que ya se
cobró varios ministros, entre ellos a Felipe Larraín de Hacienda, varios muertos, heridos graves y
detenidos.

El hecho es una advertencia para la región, la más desigual del mundo. Hay que seguir investigando este
proceso de violencia a un sistema que parecía estable y ejemplar. Por ahora para el gobierno chileno solo
queda plantear políticas públicas que fortalezcan el estado bienestar.

* Director del Área Académica Economía y de Estudios del EMBA Regional en el IAE Bussines School 

Prensa Económica

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El `mejor alumno´ en serios problemas

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