El nuevo gobierno argentino se inicia sin `viento de cola´ y con densa agenda

Por Juan J. Llach *

En un contexto global cada vez más agitado hubo dos noticias intranquilizadoras en el último mes.

Una la dio, el pasado viernes el presidente Trump, al licuar los contenidos del posible acuerdo comercial China-EEUU, especialmente en la magnitud de eventuales rebajas de los altos aranceles establecidos en los últimos dos años. Son decisiones más parecidas a una puja de poder que a herramientas de política económica racional.

No sabemos qué habría pasado sin esos aranceles, pero el hecho es que, con  ellos,
las exportaciones de los EEUU en el último bienio crecieron 7,3%, siendo superadas por las importaciones (+9,4%) y, sobre todo, por el déficit comercial, que saltó 18,8%.

Por otro lado, en el último año, las exportaciones de China cayeron 3,2% pero las importaciones se desplomaron 5,7%.

En otro orden, el pasado jueves 7 la nueva directora gerente del FMI, Kristalina Georgieva, informó que la deuda global total, pública y privada, llegó a un récord histórico del 230% del PIB mundial, 40 puntos porcentuales por encima de la existente en 2007, justo antes del estallido de la Gran Recesión. Se trata de una bomba de tiempo, la amenaza de cuyo estallido nos acompañará bastante tiempo.

Las proyecciones de crecimiento del PIB mundial, por países y regiones, muestran que el FMI sigue recortando sus pronósticos de crecimiento y, para peor, con mayor énfasis los de América Latina.          En ese marco, y tal como se esperaba, la Reserva Federal de los EEUU bajó en octubre un cuarto de
punto sus tasas de política monetaria, por tercera vez en el año, estableciéndolas entre 1,5% y 1,75%.
Esta decisión habría sido impensable con una tasa de desempleo tan baja (3,6%), pero ocurre que la
inflación de septiembre mirada por la Reserva Federal fue de sólo 1,3% anual, también la menor en
muchos años.
Desde la asunción de Trump, hace tres años, dijimos que su política económica no necesariamente iba a acarrear una masiva mudanza de capitales desde los países emergentes hacia los grandes centros, conllevando una valorización del dólar y una caída de las commodities. Hoy, el dólar está en el mismo valor de hace tres años y las commodities se han fortalecido. Además, el riesgo de los países emergentes (EMBI) ha disminuido y las bolsas han subido en casi todo el mundo, con la principal excepción de China, por el conflicto comercial con los EEUU.

Por primera vez en sesenta y ocho años, un presidente peronista, Alberto Fernández, asumirá
su cargo en un contexto global desfavorable y teniendo que lidiar con males crónicos de la
Argentina: la decadencia respecto de otros países, la alta inflación, el bimonetarismo más
intenso del mundo y los problemas de endeudamiento y de una ajustada situación fiscal.

En 1952, con fuerte giro respecto de sus políticas anteriores, Perón lanzó un programa de shock
que incluyó acuerdos (forzosos) de precios y salarios por dos años, apertura a las inversiones
extranjeras, aun en petróleo, y un congreso de productividad. Las circunstancias actuales son
distintas, pero tienen la crucial similitud de requerir un cambio profundo respecto de las
políticas populistas tradicionales optando, en cambio, por un camino de desarrollo económico
inclusivo y sostenible. Más allá de las ideologías, tal es la tarea. No se trata de copiar a un
“país modelo” inexistente, sino de inspirarse en las mejores prácticas de los muchos países
que lo han logrado.

* Economista, sociólogo y rector del IAE-Universidad Austral en Ciencias Económicas

 

Prensa Económica

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El nuevo gobierno argentino se inicia sin `viento de cola´ y con densa agenda

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