Año de elecciones: Entre la apatía y el desencanto

Comienza 2019 y las encuestas comienzar a tomar el pulso minuto a minuto del ánimo de la ciudadanía. Según el MONITOR DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA (MOP) de la encuestadora internacional Oh Panel! realizado en toda la República Argentina, estos son los datos de Enero. RADIOGRAFÍA DE LA OPINIÓN PÚBLICA EN 10 INDICADORES […]


Comienza 2019 y las encuestas comienzar a tomar el pulso minuto a minuto del ánimo de la ciudadanía. Según el MONITOR DE OPINIÓN PÚBLICA (MOP) de la encuestadora internacional Oh Panel! realizado en toda la República Argentina, estos son los datos de Enero.
RADIOGRAFÍA DE LA OPINIÓN PÚBLICA EN 10 INDICADORES (Ene 2019)

1- Cambiemos lidera en enero la intención de voto a Presidente (30%), seguido por Unidad Ciudadana (22%) y un elevado nivel de indecisos (33%).

2.- Entre los indecisos, se destacan mujeres y jóvenes de hasta 34 años, los de menor NSE y los residentes en AMBA y Patagonia.

3.- Los 5 dirigentes con mayor imagen positiva del país son María Eugenia Vidal (56%), Roberto Lavagna (49%), Ricardo Alfonsín (41%), Alfredo Cornejo (41%) y Elisa Carrió (40%).

4.- Más allá de la polarización Mauricio-Cristina:

  • En el “espacio peronista”, Roberto Lavagna es el dirigente mejor posicionado y
  • En el “espacio oficialista”, María Eugenia Vidal es la única dirigente capaz de romper la polarización.

5.La posibilidad del default segmenta la población en 3 grupos de similar peso: optimistas (no se producirá un default), pesimistas y desconocedores.

6.- 61% sostiene que “este año será, en lo económico, tan duro como el 2018”.

7.- 57% rechaza el adelantamiento de las elecciones en algunas provincias.

8.- Se prevé que a fines de 2019 el valor del dólar será de $53,11; en tanto la inflación de este año alcanzará el 43,49%.

9.La inflación (78%), inseguridad (65%) y la desocupación (61%) conforman el podio de preocupaciones.

10.- 51% opina que en 2020 la situación general será “peor” que en 2019.


KEY DRIVERS DEL VOTO (¿Porqué votarán a ese espacio?)

Votantes de CAMBIEMOS: Un voto anti CFK y ético, que persigue una transformación en la política.

Votantes de UNIDAD CIUDADANA: Recuperación de la Economía y reducción de la pobreza.


¿QUIÉN CREES QUE GANARÁ? (Más allá de a quién votes)

  • 1 de cada 3 afirman que el oficialismo logrará la re elección
  • El “Espacio Peronista (PJ + Unidad Ciudadana) suma hoy el 28%
  • GAP: 6 puntos

EL DATO: 63% afirma que habrá Ballotage. En Diciembre era del 59%


EL OFICIALISMO TIENE A 3 DE LOS 5 CANDIDATOS “MÁS POTABLES”:

» podría votarlo » no sé si lo votaría   » NO lo votaría

  1. MARÍA EUGENIA VIDAL  44%   13% 42%
  2. MAURICIO MACRI          35%  13%   52%
  3. ROBERTO LAVAGNA       31%  23%  40% 

HORACIO RODRIGUEZ LARRETA

22% Podría votarlo

18% No sé si lo votaría o no

 

 

8% No sé si lo votaría o no

52% No lo votaría
AGUSTÍN ROSSI

17% Podría votarlo

60% No lo votaría
SERGIO MASSA

14% Podría votarlo

16% No sé si lo votaría o no 68% No lo votaría
J.M. URTUBEY

12% Podría votarlo

23% No sé si lo votaría o no

 

16% No sé si lo votaría o no

 

 17% No sé si lo votaría o no

59% No lo votaría
JOSÉ LUIS ESPERT

12% Podría votarlo

47% No lo votaría
ALFREDO OLMEDO

8% Podría votarlo

60% No lo votaría
MARCELO TINELLI

7% Podría votarlo

12% No sé si lo votaría o no 76% No lo votaría

 

BALLOTAGE:
EN 5 DE 6 ESCENARIOS POTENCIALES TRIUNFA EL OFICIALISMO

 

 

 

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Año de elecciones: Entre la apatía y el desencanto

tiempo de lectura: 2 min