Nos enteramos de que el Estado Argentino (o sea nosotros) hemos sido demandados antes los tribunales de los Estados Unidos de Norteamérica como consecuencia de la expropiación de las acciones de YPF en manos de Repsol y la familia Eskenazi, otrora socia de la familia Kirchner en el negocio de la petrolera privada.
La demanda por daños ascendería a unos 2 mil millones de dólares y la parte demandante es un fondo especializado en comprar “a tasas de descuento” demandas judiciales o reclamos varias veces millonarios. Estos fondos especializados son conocidos en la jerga financiera y legal como “Litigation Finance Funds”, muy populares en los EEUU y con bastante desarrollo en Europa y Australia. Una suerte de fondo buitre alimentado por la propia gestión Kirchner. O sea, nuevamente el relato se hace trizas contra la realidad.
Lo cierto es que el fondo que nos demanda le compró el juicio al grupo Petersen comprando un activo contingente como es, en este caso, una demanda de daños. Sin embargo, estos fondos profesionales hacen un estudio de probabilidad sobre el éxito del caso antes de poner un dólar. La compra de este pleito por parte del fondo es un claro mensaje de que se descuenta el éxito del caso o, cuanto menos, las probabilidades de éxito son elevadas. Por lo tanto, más temprano que tarde la Argentina tendrá que pagar la indemnización.
Es muy fácil descontar el éxito de este reclamo y la condena para nuestro país. Sólo bastan dos argumentos de peso para anticipar este resultado. El primero, y el más importante, es que de acuerdo con el derecho norteamericano si un tercero (en nuestro caso el Estado Argentino) quiere hacerse del control de un sociedad que cotiza sus acciones en New York, el tercero está obligado a lanzar una oferta de compra a todo el mercado proponiendo pagar por las acciones un precio justo. Esto se llama Oferta Pública de Adquisición (OPA).
O sea, fiel a las leyes de mercado, los norteamericanos confían que el tercero sólo podrá hacerse del control si ofrece un precio lo suficientemente atractivo como para que el mercado lo acepte (Fair Market Value). Con esta lógica ha funcionado el mercado por más de 100 años. Mal que le pese a los Peronistas y Kirchneristas el mercado funciona con estas reglas. Pero lo más llamativo es que el sometimiento a esas reglas de mercado se hizo durante la gestión Estenssoro (Menem); o sea un claro ejemplo del gatopardismo peronista que un día privatiza y al día siguiente te expropia.
Para las reglas de mercado, si quiero comprar el control de una empresa debo ofrecer comprarle a todos los inversores distribuyendo así la prima de control. Esta regla también la tenemos nosotros para nuestro mercado y los peronistas la incluyeron en la ley de oferta pública.
El otro argumento de peso, y no menor, es que el “caso YPF” se presenta como la “mancha negra” para el mercado de valores estadounidense donde un gobierno expropia acciones de una empresa pública como si se tratara de quitarle el juguete a mi hermano menor. La verdad es que el mercado de valores de los EEUU y los tribunales de apelaciones del Estado de New York jamás avalarían semejante conducta, aun cuando el Estado Argentino pretenda defenderse bajo el argumento de la “soberanía” nacional y popular.
YPF es una empresa privada cuyas acciones cotizan en los mercados internacionales y a esas normas debe someterse la empresa, sus accionistas y el mercado; más allá de que el Parlamento Argentino haya votado una ley trasnochada mediante la cual se expropió una empresa pública cuyas acciones cotizan en la bolsa de New York.
No estoy en condiciones de anticipar el resultado, pero es altamente probable que el fallo salga favorable al fondo buitre condenando a la Argentina pagar los costos de una política errática promovida desde un Estado donde no se ejerció patria sino “patrioterismo”. Ésta es una conducta peligrosa que mezcla la noción de patria con el patoterismo político simbolizado en una expropiación llena de folklore y populismo.
Nuevamente los argentinos tendremos que soportar los costos de políticas erráticas promovidas desde un Estado ignorante y poco apegado a las leyes y donde lo emocional se impuso sobre lo racional. Pero lo más importante es que una condena de 2 mil millones de dólares equivale a destinar recursos que servirían para la solución definitiva de urgentes problemas sociales, o el equivalente al 50% del déficit energético que atraviesa hoy la Argentina.
¡Los Kirchner alimentando al propio fondo buitre!
Prof. P. Augusto Van Thienen. Director académico del Instituto CEDEFlaw. Profesor de derecho corporativo, finanzas de empresas, impuestos y contabilidad. Autor de más de 300 artículos científicos sobre sociedades, contratos e instrumentos financieros. Autor de varios artículos sobre gobierno corporativo, mercado de capitales y régimen de oferta pública. Foreign Scholar at College of Law. Florida International University. EEUU.
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