¿Será la inflación un problema mundial?

Por su recurrencia la hemos adoptado como propia y es tan argentina como el mate o el colectivo. Pero las políticas de ayuda pública a las empresas castigadas por el Covid han hecho volver algo que el mundo había olvidado: la inflación. Y ya es un problema.

Entre los economistas el debate más caliente del momento es si se deben mantener políticas públicas de ayuda para que logren salir las malheridas empresas privadas, aún a costa de disparar un proceso inflacionario que tampoco facilitaría mucho la salida de los países.

Es que la gente en el mundo no está acostumbrada a la inflación. Era una enfermedad que se creía erradicada, aún subsistiendo en países tan exóticos como Argentina o Venezuela.

Pero la pandemia ha puesto todo “patas para arriba” y las políticas keynesianas que se creían relegadas a los libros de historia económica, son hoy de estricta actualidad y utilizadas para salvar al sector privado y sus empleos.

El debate se recalentó cuando salieron a la luz los precios subyacentes en la zona euro en Enero. Los datos arrojaron que habían subido a su ritmo más rápido en cinco años.

Pero no sólo en Europa existen debates entre los “pro ayuda al mercado” y los “ultra liberales”. En Estados Unidos, algunos economistas temen que el estímulo de u$s 1.900 millones planeado por el presidente Joe Biden -que incluye ayuda asistencial de u$s 1.400 para la mayoría de los estadounidenses- pueda sobrecalentar la economía cuando las industrias de servicios reabran completamente.

Los cuellos de botella emergentes amenazan con elevar el precio de los bienes.

El espacio en los buques portacontenedores cuesta un 180% más que hace un año y la escasez de semiconductores causada por el auge de la demanda de equipos tecnológicos de este año está interrumpiendo la producción de automóviles, computadoras y teléfonos inteligentes.

Las estadísticas de titulares sobre subidas de precios contribuirán pronto a dar la sensación de que se está a las puertas de un brote inflacionario. Además, es de suponer que –estadísticamente- los precios subirán automáticamente, a medida que el colapso de los precios de las materias primas a principio de la pandemia (Ene 2010) salga de las tablas de comparaciones con el año anterior.

Lo que entrará en los análisis será el reciente aumento del precio del petróleo: ​​el 8 de febrero, el crudo Brent subió por encima de los 60 dólares el barril por primera vez en más de un año.

Hasta en el país “ejemplo” mundial, Alemania, la reversión de un recorte temporal del iva ya ha ayudado a que la inflación interanual aumente del -0,7% al 1,6% en un mes. Algo que no movería un pelo a un porteño en la city, pero que representa una catástrofe para los teutones.

Joe Biden y Janet Yellen

Una mayor inflación también puede provocar vaivenes en la política monetaria en Estados Unidos, donde las expectativas de un auge inflacionario y una recuperación más rápida aumentarán la probabilidad de que las subidas de precios sean persistentes. Los mercados financieros prevén una posibilidad entre cinco de que los precios al consumidor crezcan al menos un 3% anual de media en los próximos cinco años. La Reserva Federal ha prometido mantener los tipos de interés bajos y seguir comprando bonos porque quiere que la inflación rebase su objetivo del 2%, para compensar los déficit actuales. Sin embargo, su nuevo régimen de “metas de inflación promedio” no permite un rebasamiento duradero ni amplio. Al final, el banco central querrá subir los tipos de interés para reducir la inflación.

Cuanto más rápido suban los precios este año, antes podría llegar ese ajuste. Según dichos recientes de Richard Clarida, vicepresidente de la Reserva Federal, el banco central sólo compensará los déficit de inflación que se hayan producido durante el año anterior, lo que significa que la puesta al día podría completarse de una forma sorprendentemente rápida. El 7 de febrero, Janet Yellen, la secretaria del Tesoro, trató de tranquilizar a los críticos con el estímulo de Biden diciendo que Estados Unidos tiene las herramientas para hacer frente a la inflación. Sin embargo, la subida de tipos no está exenta de consecuencias; y, si la Reserva Federal se encuentra teniendo de pronto que enfriar una economía sobrecalentada, aumentarán los riesgos de una nueva recesión.

Estado presente, guía, o ausente. El debate recién comienza en el mundo, pero promete ser uno de los más fuertes de los últimos años. Mientras quizás veamos algunos viajes furtivos de economistas a Argentina para recordar cómo era ese fenómeno de la inflación.

Prensa Económica

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¿Será la inflación un problema mundial?

tiempo de lectura: 3 min