Vaca Muerta: Mitos y verdades

Como todas las cosas en Argentina, un yacimiento de crudo encontrado es materia de opinión, exageración, mitificación y relato. Por eso Daniel Montamat, ex ministro de Energía y una de las personas que más sabe del tema en el país, nos ayuda a dimensionar la realidad. 

“Las reservas probadas y posibles que tenemos de petróleo y gas -en yacimientos convencionales- es de unos 10.000 millones de barriles equivalentes de petróleo. Sólo Vaca Muerta y los no convencionales relevados en la Argentina implican 170.000 millones de barriles equivalentes de petróleo (27.000 millones de shale oil y 143.000 millones de shale gas).  Los no convencionales relevados darían 17 veces más los recursos convencionales que son conocidos en la actualidad. Esos 170.000 millones de no convencionales incluyen a Vaca Muerta que representa 70.000 millones de barriles. De eso más del 70% es shale gas y el resto shale oil.

Prensa E: El calculo que el valor de Vaca Muerta puede ser igual a 10 veces el PBI, ¿es razonable?

D Montamat: Es un cálculo que se puede hacer, pero obviando que son recursos que deben desarrollarse y transformarlos en reservas. Para eso hay costos.  Lo relevante desde el punto de vista económico es ver, en la potencialidad de esos recursos, cuál es la renta apropiable por el gobierno y por las empresas. Eso implica hacer valores, descontados los costos de largo plazo.  Hay ingentes inversiones que hay que comprometer en ese desarrollo, y para que sea factible, hay que incurrir en costos. Lo relevante es ver cuánto significa la renta descontada a valor actual, tomando distintos ejercicios.

De esa forma, hablamos de un 20 a 30% del PBI. Esa es la aproximación que ha hecho Ariel Coremblit, por ejemplo.  Que toma la renta del producto, descontado y traído a precios actuales.

Mejor ir a hechos concretos. El hecho de que Fortín de Piedra, de un año a otro, haya producido de cero gas a 17 o 18 millones de metros cúbicos por día, indica que Vaca Muerta está probada para desarrollos incentivos.  Algunos dicen, con Vaca Muerta nos sacamos la lotería.  Y por lo tanto, empecemos el reparto: vamos a bajar impuestos, vamos a financiar distintas cosas con los recursos que obtengamos  de Vaca Muerta.  El estado provincial se lleva una parte de la renta mediante ingresos brutos, el estado nacional coparticipa el resto de la renta a través de lo que saca con el impuesto a las ganancias. Pero ahí se acabó y no hay demasiado para repartir.  Hay que desechar entonces la idea de Vaca Muerta como lotería. Lo que si tenemos que instalar es que Vaca Muerta, si se hacen estas inversiones, si se recorre la curva de aprendizaje, si bajan los costos, si hay petróleo y después se desarrolla la ventana de gas seco, ya pensando en el mercado internacional, hacia fines de la próxima década competir en el mercado de GNL,  podemos decir que Vaca Muerta va a significar energía abundante a precios competitivos para desarrollar un modelo productivo de valor agregado importante.  Ese es el sentido estratégico de Vaca Muerta.

Actualidad

La producción de petróleo y gas viene creciendo dando vuelta una curva de declinación histórica, que venía de 1998. El año pasado creció un 2% y este año puede crecer alrededor de un 3 a 4%, con lo cual empieza a sentar tendencia.

Los convencionales, que son todavía los que más aportan, siguen declinando. El aporte que ha permitido revertir la tendencia lo da el no convencional. En gas pasa algo parecido, la producción había empezado a crecer en 2014, se estancó en 2017, pero en 2018 creció de modo fuerte y esto está basado también en el aporte del gas no convencional.

El tema es mantener este crecimiento en los no convencionales y tratar de atenuar la curva de declinación de los yacimientos maduros, convencionales. Eso se hace mediante inversión, pasando a recuperación terciaria, o asistida. La secundaria es con agua, la terciara es polímeros.

El año pasado fue de 4.200 millones de dólares, este año puede estar en 4.500 millones de dólares. Esto también hay que medirlo en términos relativos porque van a ir bajando los costos en la medida en que se avance en la curva de aprendizaje. De lo que se trata es no solo de medir la inversión en dólares, sino también la inversión física, cuántas perforaciones de cuántas fracturas se está haciendo. Primero hay que pensar en el shale oil, porque no hay restricciones logísticas para el desarrollo. El país está produciendo unos 500.000 barriles día y puede ir a 800.000 barriles día rápidamente, en tres o cuatro años.  Y todo eso es para el mercado exportable.  Después, la segunda ventana de Vaca Muerta es la del gas húmedo, gas líquido.  Entonces está el negocio del gas y el del líquido. Y la más difícil de desarrollar se necesita infraestructura e interactuar en el mercado mundial del gas, es la del gas seco.  Para pensar en esos desarrollos incentivos, hay que pensar en una inversión promedio año hasta 2030 de unos 10.000 millones de dólares por año.

Mercados Internacionales

Todavía estamos por encima de Estados Unidos.  El break even de petróleo ha ido bajando. Hoy estamos por debajo de los 40 dólares. Con precios internacionales que están por los 60 dólares, tenemos desarrollos comercialmente explotables.  En Estados Unidos , que se rige por el Henry Hub, está en los tres dólares, nosotros el break even está por encima de eso.  Por eso habrá que seguir bajando los costos, porque los precios no los vamos a manejar nosotros.  Vamos a tener que competir con EStaods Unidos, entoncese el precio de referencia va a ser el Henry Hub de los americanos.

En los mercados asiáticos es donde mayores oportunidades de venta va a haber: Corea, Japón, India eventualamente. Deducir los costos de regasificación, transporte, la planta de licuefacción y llegar a un valor boca de pozo que permita el desarrollo.  Para eso hace falta mucho esfuerzo y  políticas de largo plazo. Pero ya tenemos que tomar medidas si queremos jugar en ese mundial de gas.

Energía

Este año vamos a tener una balanza comercial energética todavía levemente deficitaria.  El año pasado fue de 2.300 millones de dólares, este año podemos estar en los 300 a 500 milones de dólares.  El año que viene si estaremos recuperando el equilibrio de la balanza comercial energética.  O sea recuperamos el autoabastecimiento. Lo que aprendimos es que el sector energético puede demandar muchísimas divisas.  Pasamos de una balanza superavitaria en el 2005, 2006, de mas de 6.000 millones a una deficitaria de 7.000 millones en el 2013.  O sea que dimos vuelta 13.000 millones de dólares. La energía pasó a demandar divisas a las cuentas externas y a convertirse en un problema macro. Si seguimos con los actuales desarrollos en cuatro o cinco años podemos tener una balanza superavitaria –sobre todo por petróleo- de unos 6.000 a 7.000 millones de dólares, dependiendo obviamente de los precios. Seguiremos importando GNL en invierno pero tendremos exportaciones de gas natural a la región. Hay que darles continuidad y firmeza a las exportaciones, sobre todo a Chile, para que sean generadoras de divisas también.

Subsidios y política caótica 

Los subsidios fueron necesarios porque nos metimos con los precios. En la crisis de 2001 el precio del gas se pesificó: pasó de más de un dólar a 30 centavos de peso, y después para recuperar pasó toda una década. Al final empezaron los planes Gas Plus, porque se dieron cuenta de que estaban importando cada vez más gas a precios de GNL por qué le íbamos a pagar 10 o 15 dólares el millón de BTU al gas importado cuando remuneramos a nuestras cuencas por debajo de dos dólares. Ahí empezó el tema de que con la producción incremental se pagaría otro precio .

Si no se hubieran intervenido los precios del gas, se hubieran hecho las inversiones en shale gas cuando los precios estuvieron altos. Después de la crisis de 2007 y 2008 el precio del petróleo llegó a 147 dólares el barril y el gas un precio de Henry Hub que llegaron a los 12 dólares. Desacoplar precios internos de los precios internacionales, en un país con las características de la Argentina, que tiene petróleo y gas, pero no es petrolero ni gasífero, es una miopía, es pan para hoy  y hambre para mañana.

El mensaje hacia adelante es: requerimos subsidios por las travesuras que habíamos hecho con los precios antes. Lo ideal, es no intervenir en el sistema de precios y entender que en países como los nuestros, los precios vienen del mercado internacional, somos tomadores de precios, tenemos que trabajar sobre los costos para que haya renta. Si no hay renta o si el gobierno  quiere apropiarse del cien por ciento de la renta del recurso natural, el resultado es cero: el recurso queda durmiendo el sueño de los tiempos.

Igual los precios internacionales se nos meten por la ventana con la importación. Hay que terminar con el régimen de subsidios a la producción cuando venzan los plazos y trabajar sobre los costos para desarrollar nuestro potencial.  Ese sería el consejo que yo le daría a cualquier político argentino, en función de la experiencia inmediata.

Desdolarizar los precios de la energía también es miopía. Primero, esa discusión se da en países que no tienen moneda, como el nuestro. El tema es recuperar la moneda. Cuando lo hagamos vamos a dejar de discutir si el precio de la nafta o del gasoil es peso o dólar. Si no queremos tener en cuenta los precios internacionales, hagamos otro sistema de precios de referencia y volvamos a importar. El tema real es volver a tener moneda estable y para eso terminar con la inflación crónica.

La “Era de los Fernández”

Espero que el resultado de las elecciones no afecte las inversiones en el sector, como se preveía. Espero que Alberto Fernández no vaya a cometer el mismo error que Cristina: un modelo de sustitución de importaciones, cerrado, autárquico  y exportar saldos, que genere restricción externa y haga explotar las cuentas públicas. Eso no va mas y espero que lo vean claro si esperan alguna inversión extranjera.

Primero habrá que saber quién es el vocero económico. Ese es el problema que yo advierto, un sesgo a seguir tratando de vivir con lo nuestro, con el modelo de sustitución de importaciones.

Ojalá me equivoque y Vaca Muerta no sea la oportunidad para generar `algunos dólares más´ a fin de prolongar la agonía de un modelo que, tarde o temprano, vuelve a explotar.

 

Prensa Económica

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