Esta semana inició con una sorpresa significativa. La administración Trump estaría considerando cambios a las leyes de biocombustibles que incluirían un mayor corte de etanol en las naftas (15% contra 10% actual) y que los subsidios que se pagan al biodiesel sólo se apliquen al producido en EEUU.
Por Dante Romano
En ambos casos estas noticias suponen mayor demanda interna para EEUU, y por ello generaron alzas en Chicago. Pero la traslación a Argentina, especialmente en soja, fue muy baja. Esto se debe a que en el caso del biodiesel la lectura es ambigua para nuestro país: si bien un mayor consumo de aceite en EEUU debería debilitar sus exportaciones de aceite o poroto de soja y esto en definitiva es positivo, hoy EEUU es el destino de 90% de las exportaciones de biodiesel de Argentina.
Por ello la fuerte suba del aceite de soja en Chicago se contrarrestó con una merma en la prima FOB del aceite (pasó de -22 a -37 U$S/tt) y finalmente la paridad de pago de la industria apenas se movió.
La otra implicancia fuerte que tendría un cambio como este, es que las bonificaciones por soja EPA podrían desaparecer. Para que el subsidio prosperara había que demostrar que el BIODIESEL había sido producido en campos que hasta el 2008 eran agrícolas. Los lotes provenientes de campos que demostraran esto de acuerdo a los protocolos establecidos, permitieron sumar el año pasado de 3 a 8 U$S/tt de premio.
De todas formas, más avanzada la semana las subas menguaron, primero porque los rumores de que el decreto estaba a la firma fueron negados por la Casa Blanca, y luego porque en el caso del maíz, un cambio de E10 a E15 requeriría una serie de pasos protocolares en la EPA que recién los haría operativos a fines de este año.
Dejando de lado este movimiento causado por los biocombustibles, tenemos que pensar que la cosecha Sudamericana está entrando al mercado, aunque la pregunta es el ritmo que tendrá la misma.
En lo que respecta a cosecha, Mato Grosso ya supera el 70% trillado, y la recolección gana ritmo en el centro y sur. En tanto con una devaluación del real, se reactivaron las ventas del productor. El problema pasa porque para trasladar la soja desde Mato Grosso a los puertos del norte, hay 130 Km de ruta de tierra que con las lluvias se volvieron intransitables. Hacia el sur el tramo de tierra es menor, pero de todas formas son 30 Km. Esto ya está generando colas de buques. No obstante la soja del centro y sur empieza a ganar ritmo, y desde allí no hay dificultades serias para mover el grano, por lo que este efecto es menor.
Pero además los analistas siguen incrementando la producción de soja de este país. Informa la llevó a 108 mill.tt. contra las 104 mill.tt. que proyectó el USDA. En Argentina los comentarios que circulan apuntan a una muy buena campaña, aunque los analistas sostienen una producción de 54,5 a 54,8 mill.tt. cuando el USDA está en 55,5 mill.tt. Como vemos la merma Argentina se superaría con creces con la de Brasil, y además Uruguay está muy bien.
En el mercado local los precios más bajos ponen paños fríos a las ventas, pero recordemos que hacer esto es riesgoso ya que en el corto plazo podríamos tener mermas adicionales por el desarme de posiciones compradas de fondos.
En cuanto a maíz, el tema biocombustibles comentados generó un impulso externo, que se trasladó vagamente al mercado local. La oferta que se viene tanto en Brasil como en Argentina sería muy grande. Y además EEUU cuenta hoy con stocks abultados, y si bien perdería área en el ciclo 17/18 según lo que predijeron en el OUTLOOK la semana pasada, también bajarían las exportaciones y esto dejaría una merma de stocks menor. Seguiríamos en un mercado muy ofrecido.
En el mercado local ya están llegando los barcos de maíz para llevarse los embarques marzo, pero la trilla viene lenta, y lo que se levanta temprano sale con humedad. De todas formas con un valor de 160 U$S/tt frente a niveles de 150 para el mes siguiente esto es alcista.
Finalmente pasando al trigo internacional, el mismo no contó con el apoyo de los biocombustibles, pero su ligazón con el maíz lo ayudó. Una parte del trigo se dedica a forrajes y si el valor del maíz sube, pero el trigo se queda, el mismo aumenta. Por otro lado los fondos estaban muy vendidos, pero empezaron a aparecer noticias que no son tan bajistas: la menor siembra de trigo de invierno, la caída de stocks pronosticada por el OUTLOOK, y la demanda más activa esta semana con precios de EEUU que ya se ponen competitivos.
Las subas de trigo se trasladaron al mercado local, pero lo más jugoso podría estar por llegar. Brasil sigue siendo un destino minoritario de los embarques, y los mismos van muy rápido. Si el país vecino no levanta el precio FOB, el trigo Argentino seguirá siendo demandado en el mercado internacional por otros países que lo encuentran barato. Pero el trigo Argentino llega a Brasil aún en esto valores 70 U$S/tt más barato que el norteamericano. Con una diferencia de 20/30 U$S/tt todavía deberían comprar local.
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