El Agro argentino en medio de la guerra proteccionista

Prensa Económica 1 año ago 497

¿Cuáles son las perspectivas para el sector agroalimentario argentino en una economía mundial marcada por tensiones proteccionistas?

En el centro de las actuales tensiones comerciales, sobre todo entre Estados Unidos y China, el sector agroalimentario se ve afectado por el efecto contagio, especialmente a través de la caída de los precios de los commodities clave del sector, como es el caso de la soja. Coface ha conducido un análisis profundo de las futuras tendencias en este mercado.

La industria agroalimentaria (junto con la tecnológica) es clave en la actual guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China. Recientemente, las autoridades chinas han tomado medidas para prohibir las importaciones agroalimentarias procedentes de Estados Unidos, como respuesta a los aumentos arancelarios anunciados por la administración Trump.

Tensiones comerciales y caída del precio de la soja

Los movimientos en torno a la soja son el ejemplo perfecto de la situación puesto que el precio de este commodity ha experimentado una elevada volatilidad y una tendencia a la baja. La soja es muy utilizada, tanto para consumo humano como para alimentar al ganado (igual que el maíz o el trigo).

Gracias a su modelo estadístico que pronostica los precios de determinados commodities, Coface estima que, en 2019, el precio de la soja caerá un 9% respecto a 2018, debido tanto a las tensiones comerciales entre China y Estados Unidos, como al brote de peste porcina africana. Esto último ha obligado a los productores chinos a sacrificar gran parte de sus animales para limitar el contagio, y por tanto, a comprar menos soja para alimentarlos. Al mismo tiempo, la situación ha impactado directamente sobre la producción mundial de carne de cerdo, la mitad de la cual se produce en China.

Consecuentemente, los consumidores chinos tendrán que optar por otras proteínas animales, como  carne de vaca o ave, lo que implicará un crecimiento de la demanda de los principales exportadores globales, como Argentina y Brasil.

Otra consecuencia de las tensiones comerciales entre Estados Unidos y China para la industria agroalimentaria es la transformación de las “rutas de exportación” para ciertas materias primas, incluidas la soja y el cerdo. A pesar de que los principales productores mundiales de soja, como Argentina y Brasil, podrían sacar algún beneficio de la situación a mediano plazo, los riesgos para el sector agroalimentario permanecen elevados.

Otros riesgos para el futuro del sector agroalimentario global

Al proteccionismo global, se le suman otros riesgos potenciales para las empresas agroalimentarias, como la peste porcina africana o la oruga militar de otoño, que amenaza al mercado global del maíz. En términos de riesgo estructural, el sector es vulnerable a las condiciones climáticas que pueden afectar a los cultivos, tales como las fuertes sequías o el fenómeno del Niño.

Por último, aunque la industria agroalimentaria se ve fuertemente afectada por el contexto económico global, marcado por las tensiones proteccionistas, también es un sector clave en los acuerdos de libre comercio, tal y como lo demuestra el reciente acuerdo entre la Unión Europea y el Mercosur.

Los gobiernos negocian acuerdos para facilitar el comercio de productos que podrían beneficiar al sector agroalimentario. No obstante, estos no siempre cuentan con el apoyo de los agricultores locales y son recibidos con un creciente escepticismo por parte de la opinión pública, lo que a veces implica retrasos en la ratificación de estos acuerdos de libre comercio por parte de las autoridades.

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