Además, las oportunidades para la venta de Soja, presentan un panorama bien distinto.
Por Dante Romano *
Independientemente de las razones, la Soja en Chicago subió en 9 de las últimas 10 ruedas, y localmente se marcaron nuevos máximos (superiores a 270 u$d/tt), los cuales están muy por encima de los valores más altos que se fijaron como objetivo a la hora de tomar la decisión de siembra (260 u$d).
La última vez que vimos un movimiento semejante, los precios no lograron sostenerse y luego se precipitó la baja. Solo por esto resultaría prudente para los productores avanzar en ventas.
Maíz: Desensillar hasta que aclare
Algo similar ocurre con el Maíz tardío, que con entrega julio llegó a los 150 U$S/tt. En cuanto al maíz temprano, si bien estuvo en valores que antes resultaban muy buscados, los 155 U$S/tt, la situación de los cultivos es muy compleja y vale la pena esperar.
En este reporte desarrollaremos los siguientes temas:
- El contexto internacional es favorable para los commodities, pero podría cambiar.
- El clima en Argentina hasta aquí permitió un desarrollo normal de cultivos, pero ahora se necesitan lluvias y en el pronóstico no se ven.
- Brasil viene muy bien y podría compensar las pérdidas en Argentina.
- En tanto EEUU tiene mucho stock del ciclo pasado y los precios para el próximo ciclo sugieren que nuevamente podría pasar área de maíz a soja.
- Los fondos especulativos, que estaban vendidos, tienen mucho que ver con este comportamiento.
Maíz:
Por el lado del maíz, la mayor competitividad de EEUU ayudó a que su precio fuera al máximo del rango por donde venía operando. La recomendación es vender o poner piso y techo de precios. Veamos porqué: – Hay mucho maíz en el mundo, por lo que las alzas podrían no sostenerse. Localmente hay problemas serios para el maíz temprano, que podrían llevar a subas mayores en la primer parte de la campaña. – Pero el tardío viene razonablemente bien, y se juntaría con la cosecha de segunda de Brasil.
La recomendación para el maíz tardío es vender y comprar spread de CALL en Chicago, pero no comporometer maíz temprano.
* Para Austral Agropespectivas, de la Universidad Austral.
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