Luego de un año de tropiezos y otro de franca mejoría, ingresamos en el tercer año de la administración Macri con turbulencias. Pero los economistas (jóvenes) nos clarifican mejor el panorama: en general, se espera una continuidad leve pero sostenida en el crecimiento económico. Y nos dan las cifras de 2018.
LOS NÚMEROS DEL 2018
[table id=5 /]
Aquí una breve reseña de los conceptos de algunos economistas. El Informe completo con todos los cuadros y números, en la revista de Enero 2018.
Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina (Economista jefe de Ecolatina):
“Se romperá la maldición de los años pares”
“Habrá crecimiento de la economía, si bien acotado por la necesidad del Gobierno de reducir en un punto porcentual del PBI el déficit fiscal. Seguirá la política monetaria contractiva y una moderadamente alta tasa de interés. La tendencia será contractiva al gasto durante todo 2018, sobre todo en base a un menor impulso de la obra pública, a recortes de subsidios y a un achicamiento del Estado. Sobre la inflación, Argentina seguirá el camino de otros países de la región, que tardaron varios años en poder bajar del 30% a un dígito la inflación”.
Ramiro Castiñeira (Economista jefe de Econométrica):
“El mundo se va a sumar a Argentina, cuando Argentina se sume al mundo” (con hechos)
“Este gobierno está bien intencionado, perro tiene que estar negociando permanentemente negociando al proponer reformas que tiene que pelear -aún siendo graduales. Eso demuestra que el problema está más en la sociedad argentina. El gobierno tiene un desafío doble: bajar la presión impositiva para hacer más competitiva la economía y el gasto público y de la política para no generar más déficit. El desafío es doble”
Romina Moroni (Economista jefe de Fundación Capital):
“La inversión público-privada puede ser la clave del año“
“El gobierno ha definido a la inversión como el motor de la economía, pero su evolución en 2018 dependerá en buena medida, del éxito que puedan tener los proyectos de asociación público-privados para obras de infraestructura. La inversión alcanzaría el 21,5% del producto, si bien por encima del promedio de los últimos años, estaría por debajo de lo recomendado para crecer en forma sostenida. El 7,9% de los proyectos se harán por el régimen de asociación público-privada, que comprenderán inversiones por $ 30.000 millones e inversión en infraestructura por 3,5% del PBI”
Federico Furiase (Director de Eco Go y profesor de Master de Finanzas en la UTDT):
Cuidado con el “talón de Aquiles” del gradualismo fiscal
En la restricción externa se encuentra el talón de Aquiles del gradualismo financiado con deuda y de la estrategia de desinflación del BCRA a través de metas de inflación con tasas de interés. Los bancos salen a buscar deuda y apalancamiento en el mercado de capitales para aumentar la liquidez disponible y financiar el tirón de la demanda de crédito al sector privado. El crecimiento será más moderado que el de 2017; para superarlo será necesario afinar la coordinación para que el impulso al crédito sea mayor”.
Gabriel Caamaño Gómez (Socio gerente en Consultora Ledesma)
“Con logros modestos se hace muchísimo“
El camino elegido del gradualismo requiere mayor disciplina y coordinación. De todos modos la economía volverá a crecer y la inflación estará por debajo del 20%. Este año será ademáss el primer período no recesivo desde 2007 y el primer bienio de expansión sostenida del PIB desde 2010-2011. Es decir, con relativamente poco, podemos hacer muchísimo”
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