La deuda argentina: un negocio interesante

Según la consultora Quantum, la probabilidad de acuerdo con los holdouts se desvaneció, con lo cual la restricción externa seguirá siendo en 2015 la variable que definirá el ritmo de la actividad económica, sobre todo teniendo en cuenta el objetivo oficial de minimización de pérdida de reservas. Con todo ello, […]

Según la consultora Quantum, la probabilidad de acuerdo con los holdouts se desvaneció, con lo cual la restricción externa seguirá siendo en 2015 la variable que definirá el ritmo de la actividad económica, sobre todo teniendo en cuenta el objetivo oficial de minimización de pérdida de reservas.

Con todo ello, el mercado no está poniendo en duda la capacidad de pago de la deuda argentina. En términos de riesgo-retorno, la deuda cotiza a valores muy cercanos a la paridad para el tramo corto y medio de la curva (BODEN 15 sobre la par) en los casos en que los cupones son elevados (8,28-8,75% anual para deuda en USD y legislación extranjera). El conflicto holdouts y su resolución parecen haberse transformado en una mera cuestión formal, de muy bajo riesgo (ya nadie habla de aceleraciones) y a ser encarada indiscutidamente por la nueva Administración post-10 de diciembre 2015.

Aun así, el rendimiento a lo largo de toda la curva sigue siendo elevado al compararlo con el de otros países de la región, ya sea con mayor riesgo (ej, Brasil) o menor riesgo (ej, Perú, Colombia), que en promedio es superior en 400-450 puntos básicos. Más allá de que, tal vez por primera vez en la historia económica argentina, la corrección de desequilibrios macro y microeconómicos no pone en duda la capacidad de pago de los servicios de la deuda, Argentina tiene por delante un período complejo de desactivación de los mismos. Esa incertidumbre es la que estaría manteniendo los rendimientos elevados, y no tanto el riesgo por un eventual no pago de la deuda soberana. Además, el mercado seguirá reduciendo el riesgo argentino en la medida en que se espera una política económica más amistosa con el mercado por parte del nuevo Gobierno que surja de las elecciones de octubre/noviembre próximo.

Con esa lectura, es evidente que en el marco de la Argentina que viene, la ganancia de capital por posibilidades de arbitraje precio-retorno en el mediano plazo es significativa, teniendo las series de PAR el mayor potencial (con la mayor relación duration-exit yield). Si Argentina redujese la brecha de rendimiento con sus pares latinoamericanos, por ejemplo, según la curva soberana de Brasil, el upside de los bonos PAR superaría el 50%, mientras que para la deuda del tramo medio la ganancia de capital sería de entre el 25-30%, respectivamente. Además, debería considerarse un flujo de intereses elevado por un período de tiempo considerable (ej, Discount en USD).

Con otro riesgo, lo mismo podría esperarse de cierta deuda corporativa comparable, como el caso de YPF y Petrobrás Brasil, por ejemplo. Teniendo en cuenta perspectivas, cupones y relación riesgo-retorno la ganancia de capital sobre deuda YPF superaría el 15%.

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La deuda argentina: un negocio interesante

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