La caída del precio internacional del petróleo puede hacer que los valores de los combustibles en el país no acompañen la inflación, constituyendo una buena noticia para los sectores logístico, agropecuario, de consumo y las economías regionales, según el análisis de la consultora abeceb.com. Otro dato positivo es que traerá alivio ayudando a reducir el déficit energético. Pero por otro lado, impactará en los planes de los proveedores de la industria petrolera y sus sustitutos, debido a la ralentización de la inversión en el sector.
Este escenario plantea un nuevo desafío: si bien en el corto plazo, la baja del precio del petróleo crudo puede traer un beneficio reduciendo el déficit energético previsto para 2015, la ralentización de las inversiones en nuevos pozos que provoca esta coyuntura, aleja aún más el horizonte de recuperación de la seguridad energética, de acuerdo al informe de abeceb.com distribuido hoy.
Si el crudo a nivel internacional se estabiliza en torno a los 70 USD por barril en 2015, implica una caída cercana al 25% en comparación con el promedio anual de 2014. Si bien todavía hay mucha volatilidad y la cotización ha perforado los 60 USD, las primeras proyecciones para 2015 prevén un cierto repunte de los pisos observados en los últimos días.
En los últimos años, a nivel local el precio del crudo que se utiliza mayormente en la etapa de refinación (Medanito) estuvo desacoplado de los valores internacionales, pero si la tendencia se prolonga o profundiza en el mediano plazo, probablemente se registre una baja. Ahora bien, aún si el crudo local replicase en cierta medida la merma de las proyecciones internacionales para 2015, la inercia inflacionaria del resto de las variables que determinan el precio de los combustibles, permiten prever que no habrá una reducción en el valor de las naftas o del gasoil en surtidor.
Si bien se espera que el tipo de cambio oficial siga actuando en cierta medida como ancla nominal, la devaluación promedio esperada para 2015 en nuestro escenario base ronda el 17% interanual y dado que el crudo es un insumo dolarizado, la eventual caída en el precio del petróleo será compensado por un aumento en el tipo de cambio.
En segundo lugar, si bien el petróleo es el principal insumo de la etapa de refinación, los precios también se estiman en base a la evolución de los costos de comercialización, logística y salarios, que seguramente muestren una dinámica correlacionada con una inflación superior al 30% interanual en 2015..
En este escenario, lo más factible es que el precio de los combustibles en el surtidor se mantenga en los niveles actuales o aumente en menor medida que el nivel general . Esto ya constituye una buena noticia para aquellos sectores que tienen un importante peso del transporte en su estructura de costos. En este sentido, se destacan el sector logístico pero también el agropecuario, las economías regionales y los productos de consumo masivo (alimentos, bebidas, productos de cuidado personal, etc) que se distribuyen por todo el país.
En cambio, la baja del crudo en dólares, generará una desaceleración de los sectores proveedores de la industria petrolera. Aquellos que tienen inserción internacional, como el caso de los tubos sin costura, es probable que reduzcan los envíos externos en el corto plazo ante una revisión de la capitalización petrolera a nivel mundial. A nivel local, puede implicar también una ralentización de la inversión esperada, sobre todo en las áreas de petróleo no convencional que cuentan con un costo de producción más elevado.
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