Se recupera la tasa de interés real

Uno de los interrogantes mundiales que dispara la caída del precio del petróleo es si esa reducción se trasladará al resto de los precios, generando presiones deflacionarias. Dependiendo de los niveles de endeudamiento, la etapa del ciclo económico y los motores de crecimiento, efectos de esa naturaleza pueden agregar dificultades […]

Uno de los interrogantes mundiales que dispara la caída del precio del petróleo es si esa reducción se trasladará al resto de los precios, generando presiones deflacionarias. Dependiendo de los niveles de endeudamiento, la etapa del ciclo económico y los motores de crecimiento, efectos de esa naturaleza pueden agregar dificultades a aquellas economías que siguen luchando por mantener a flote los niveles de actividad y reducir la tasa de desempleo. Particularmente en la Zona Euro, donde la inflación anual es 0,4%, el PBI crece 0,8% y la tasa de desempleo se mantiene en el entorno del 12-11,5% desde comienzos de 2013.

En el caso de Estados Unidos la situación es distinta, y aunque los riesgos son similares, los márgenes para la política económica son mayores. La recuperación se mantiene a buen ritmo, con el PBI creciendo al 3,9% anual, el desempleo en caída (en el 5,5%, cercano al pleno empleo) y la inflación estabilizada en 1,6% anual, por debajo de la meta del 2%. La combinación del inicio del período de suba de tasas previsto para la segunda mitad de 2015, en un contexto de presiones deflacionarias, podría reforzar el  aumento en la tasa de interés real.

Lo concreto es que la discusión global podría comenzar a enfocarse sobre esta cuestión, y dependiendo de las políticas implementadas en cada caso, tendrá mayor o menor impacto sobre los tipos de cambio y el precio de los activos, algo que ya se estamos viendo en la actualidad.

Salvando las distancias y bajo un contexto económico y de necesidades diferentes, en Argentina está pasando algo parecido. La política de tipo de cambio fijo, en combinación con la política de expansión neta de base (crece al 20% anual) y el efecto contractivo de la restricción externa sobre el nivel de actividad redujeron la tasa de inflación. En la actualidad por debajo del 2% mensual, contra niveles promedio superiores al 2,6% en el período marzo-septiembre. Por otro lado, la tasa de interés nominal BADLAR se mantiene en el entorno del 20% anual desde hace un año (y la de plazo fijo minorista a 30 días en 23% anual). Es decir, la tasa de interés real está aumentando lentamente, aunque aún es negativa.

Previo a la devaluación de enero de este año llegó a ser de -24% anual, y tras volver a niveles de -10% anual, se recuperó en los últimos dos meses hasta alcanzar -4% en la actualidad. La misma dinámica muestra el diferencial entre la BADLAR y la tasa de devaluación esperada, que se redujo a -13% anual hasta alcanzar un mínimo de -24% hace dos meses. En este caso, dados los niveles de tasa de interés real, su recuperación representa una buena señal en un contexto de oferta de dinero excedente, faltante de dólares y tensión sobre la demanda de pesos.

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Se recupera la tasa de interés real

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