Por Enrique Déntice (USAM).
La crisis con los holdouts, generó durante 2014 una disminución del
nivel de actividad, que cerró la agenda de salida al crédito externo
que se venía operando – Club de París, YPF, Repsol – y profundizó la
restricción externa obligando a la autoridad económica a guardar
reservas, ajustando a la baja al nivel de actividad.
La situación que atraviesa la economía es de un pesimismo en el corto
plazo y una expectación para el largo, donde se observan situaciones
pendulares entre: la restricción de dólares y el exceso de pesos, o,
de recesión con inflación, sin embargo no es una economía que se
encamine a una explosión, no es la economía de 2001.
2014 cierra con una caída interanual del PIB. El consumo se muestra a
la baja producto de la caída de actividad, expectativa de ingresos y
empleo y paradójicamente no impacta para bajar la inflación. El menor
consumo interno, afectará a los sectores ligados a alimentos y bebidas
más fuertemente.
Se estima que la cosecha de soja será buena, al igual que la de trigo,
cayendo la de maíz. La tendencia de precios de estos commodities sería
continuar a niveles de los actuales, pareciendo que la meseta en los
mismos ya aventura tendencia.
Los mayores costos y la brecha cambiaria, afectan la rentabilidad del
sector agropecuario. La caída del precio de la soja fue 23% (USD330),
petróleo cayó 35% (USD70), precio del maíz 11% (USD190).
La caída de los valores y de la soja particularmente recortaría
ingresos por USD 5.500 millones, compensados por la caída del precio de
petróleo y de ello el valor de las importaciones de energía en USD
1.300 millones.
Si bien todos los sectores manufactureros se perfilan afectados por el
bajo nivel de actividad esperado los que se hallan ligados a las
importaciones y que en un 50% requieren insumos importados, serán: 1)
Automotor, 2) Electrodomésticos y 3) Electrónicos
El desempeño de la economía brasileña será una variable para
monitorear y particularmente para la industria automotriz, ya que la
prioridad del Brasil es moderar la inflación frente al sostenimiento
del nivel de actividad.
Se espera que Brasil, modifique el Real y ello haría aun más difícil
la relación con el peso. Sin embargo, se espera un leve rebote en el
sector automotriz local con una expectativa de producción del orden
907.000 unidades.
Si bien la obra pública en un año electoral es importante, no se
estima que la misma vaya a ser decisiva. Elevada brecha cambiaria,
incertidumbre y restricción al atesoramiento de divisas, constituyen un
escenario poco amigable.
Se prevé un estancamiento en la creación de empleo y cautela con la
cantidad de personal ocupado, tanto en tomado como en despidos.
La caída del precio del petróleo que aun no define si es piso o no,
además de reducir el valor de las importaciones, fiscalmente generara
una disminución en subsidios por transferencias al sector privado,
pero, no se sabe su impacto cierto en el bolsillo de la gente
El nivel de reservas se sitúa en USD 30.000 millones y la generación
de divisas genuinas (balanza comercial) se ubicará en USD9.000
millones.
Los vencimientos de deuda en 2015, son mayores, pero las expectativas
de las exportaciones resultan menores y esto es un problema.
No se prevé que el 2015 sea un año donde se lleven adelante
correcciones macroeconómicas en temas como: inflación, atraso
cambiario, desequilibrio fiscal, y esto, con o sin acuerdo con los
holdouts.
Tales desequilibrios tendrían como efecto un ajuste en cantidades
(menos nivel de actividad) que en precios. El proceso recesivo de 2015
solo puede revertirse, pero no en gran medida, con la apertura de la
cuenta financiera.
La clave en 2015 será monitorear no solo la restricción externa, sino
también el exceso de pesos. Los escenarios que se toman como base
indican: 1) Arreglo con los holdouts = año Ordenado o, 2) no arreglo
con los holdouts = año Caótico, y con un escenario intermedio, un
arreglo a mitad de año.
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