Por Miguel Ángel Boggiano, CEO de Carta Financiera LLC.
El mundo eligió al dólar como la principal moneda de resguardo durante 2014. Uno de los motivos que alentó esta decisión fue el hecho de que la Reserva Federal terminó su programa de “Quantitative Easing”. ¿Qué quiere decir esto? Que decidió dar por finalizada la impresión masiva de dólares. Y la consecuencia inmediata ha sido su fortalecimiento.
Si miramos el Dollar Index, encontramos que subió prácticamente sin
interrupciones desde mediados de año.
El dólar se apreció un promedio de 12,5% con respecto a las monedas más fuertes del mundo en los últimos cinco meses del año. Pero hay más: si miramos la tendencia a más largo plazo, veremos que el dólar tiene aún mucho espacio para seguir revalorizándose.
Por último, no olvidemos que el dólar se apreció fuertemente frente
al real brasileño.
CONCLUSIÓN: el dólar se hace más fuerte en el mundo. Argentina busca
aferrarse a un tipo de cambio fijo y artificialmente fuerte. Con que la
inercia de la tendencia continúe, la presión que sentirá el peso
argentino forzará una nueva devaluación.
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