El déficit comercial de Argentina con China alcanzó en 2014 los 6.300 millones de dólares, un 8 por
ciento más que en 2013. La cuenta comercial con el gigante asiático ha mostrado un saldo negativo creciente a partir de 2008 (en 2007 se registró el último superávit, de 77 millones de dólares). Según las estimaciones de abeceb.com, el comercio total con China se redujo un 8 por ciento durante 2014 como resultado de una caída de del 17 por
ciento de las exportaciones y una baja del 4 en las importaciones.
“El intercambio con China muestra una clara asimetría en términos
de composición. Las ventas argentinas se explican por los envíos del
complejo soja y, en menor medida, petróleo mientras que las
importaciones se conforman por un conjunto diversificado de productos
industriales”, explicó Mauricio Claverí, coordinador de Comercio y
Negociaciones Internacionales de abeceb.com.
Si se analiza por rubros, en 2014 la soja concentró el 71 por ciento
de las ventas al país asiático y el aceite de soja otro 7%. El segundo
rubro fue el petróleo crudo con una participación del 3%. De China se
importaron fundamentalmente máquinas y aparatos eléctricos, en un 32%.
El informe de abeceb.com se dio a conocer tras la media sanción
del acuerdo que el Senado le dio al convenio de cooperación
económica firmado durante la visita de presidente Xi Jinping a la
Argentina. El convenio deberá ser refrendado por la
Cámara de Diputados.
El acuerdo es uno de los 19 convenios firmados por ambas naciones el 18
de julio y se compone de dos acuerdos complementarios (el de
cooperación en el ámbito de Infraestructura y en Inversiones
industriales). Este instrumento tiene como finalidad promover y
facilitar el fortalecimiento de los vínculos comerciales y de
inversiones de las empresas públicas y privadas de ambos países.
Para Claverí, “si bien en los considerandos del Convenio se reconoce
la necesidad de revertir el desequilibrio comercial entre ambos países,
no es claro cómo se va a lograr. Una mayor apertura con China en
términos de inversión industrial e infraestructura en ‘sectores
prioritarios’ estará acompañada por facilidades para importar bienes
manufacturados de ese país. Esto no sólo podría implicar desplazar
producción local sino que también podría limitar la posibilidad de
desarrollar las capacidades locales necesarias para salir a exportar
bienes de mayor valor agregado”.
Asimismo el analista considera que, “el acercamiento con China
podría profundizar el proceso de sustitución de Brasil como proveedor
de productos industriales en un escenario de debilidad del intercambio
con el principal socio del MERCOSUR. En lo que va del año, las compras
al país vecino se han reducido en un 25% mientras que las importaciones
desde China sólo lo hicieron en un 4%”.
La firma de estos acuerdos forma parte de la estrategia de acercamiento
llevada adelante por ambos países desde mediados de año en el marco de
la cumbre del grupo BRICS. La iniciativa argentina apunta a consolidar
una alianza fuerte en la búsqueda de apoyo internacional político y
financiero. Al respecto debe recordarse que fue en ese encuentro que se
acordó también el Swap financiero de monedas utilizado como parte de
la estrategia para recomponer las reservas internacionales en los
últimos meses de 2014.
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