Inflación 2014: La mayor en los últimos doce años

Inflación 2014: La mayor en los últimos doce años De acuerdo al IPC elaborado por la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, los precios minoristas subieron un 38% en 2014, finalizando el año dos puntos porcentuales por debajo del pico de 40% alcanzado en septiembre. Según el informe económico del Banco Ciudad, […]

Inflación 2014: La mayor en los últimos doce años

De acuerdo al IPC elaborado por la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, los precios minoristas subieron un 38% en 2014, finalizando el año dos puntos porcentuales por debajo del pico de 40% alcanzado en septiembre.

Según el informe económico del Banco Ciudad, esta desaceleración de la inflación acompañó el virtual congelamiento del tipo de cambio oficial, con un impacto directo en los precios de los bienes transables. En los últimos tres meses del año pasado, el tipo de cambio oficial contra el dólar se incrementó sólo un 1%, lo que equivale a una devaluación del peso de apenas 4,1% en términos anualizados, mientras que contra la canasta de monedas de los principales socios comerciales el peso de hecho se apreció un 2,6%.

Ahora bien, a pesar de la moderación registrada en el último trimestre, 2014 culminó con la mayor inflación local desde el traumático abandono del régimen de Convertibilidad, en el año 2002 (41%). Asimismo, se cumplió una década con una inflación de dos dígitos y casi 8 años consecutivos con alzas superiores al 20%, interrumpidas sólo transitoriamente en 2009, en el marco de la última gran crisis global.

Esta persistente y acelerada suba de los precios internos ubicó a la Argentina como la segunda economía con la mayor inflación del mundo de 2014, sólo superada por Venezuela (64%).

En materia de perspectivas, se espera un mayor impulso de los precios en enero por motivos estacionales, pero la variación anual del IPC seguiría corrigiéndose a la baja. La inflación podría volver superar el 2% mensual, aunque en su comparación interanual experimentaría una nueva desaceleración, principalmente, por la elevada base de comparación de enero 2014 (cuando la inflación trepó al 4,8% mensual, impactada por devaluación del peso de inicios del año pasado).

Ahora, con la vista puesta en el mediano plazo, las perspectivas no son tan alentadoras. La desaceleración en la suba de los precios internos de los últimos meses ha estado vinculada, de manera casi exclusiva, a una estabilidad cambiaria a todas luces insostenible. Adicionalmente, el Banco Central ha vuelto a incurrir en una fuerte emisión para asistir financieramente al Tesoro, provocando una inyección monetaria de más de $50.000 millones en diciembre, que de no ser retirados al menos parcialmente en enero y febrero, volverían al actual equilibrio en uno sumamente inestable, siendo lo anterior sólo una muestra de lo que se espera en un año electoral.

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Inflación 2014: La mayor en los últimos doce años

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