Carlos Boggiano anticipa que este año puede haber una gran devaluación del peso:
Hace exactamente un año, el peso argentino sufrió una fuerte devaluación que lo llevó a 8,14 pesos por dólar. Un año más tarde el tipo de cambio está en 8,66, lo que significa apenas una suba del 6,4%.
Si tenemos en cuenta que la inflación verdadera estuvo en torno al 40%, tenemos que Argentina está, en promedio, un 34% más cara en dólares. Pero hay más: en el último año el dólar (medido por el Dollar Index) se fortaleció un 15% en el mundo. Con lo cual, el efecto total nos ubica aproximadamente un 50% más caros que el año pasado. Si somos tan dramáticamente más caros que antes, van a entrar muchos menos dólares por la balanza comercial.
¿Qué quiere decir una balanza comercial “más débil”? La balanza comercial cayó en 2014 al nivel más bajo de los últimos 13 años. (La Nación). El superavit fue de 6686 millones de dólares, un 17% menos que en 2013. Si ahora somos un 50% más caros que el año pasado. imaginemos que ese saldo puede caer un 50%. o incluso volverse negativo. Porque además la tendencia de un dólar fuerte en el mundo y eso nos hace cada día más caros. Si sumamos la inflación, podríamos terminar el 2014 cómodamente un 75% más caros que en el 2014. Y eso no es sostenible.
Hacia una gran devaluación
Para rematar la situación, nuestro principal aliado económico, Brasil, está en problemas. La balanza comercial brasileña cerró 2014 con déficit tras 14 años consecutivos de superávits. Con lo cual, van a hacer lo imposible por comprarnos cada vez menos (el saldo negativo fue de 3930 millones de dólares).
La consecuencia es conocida por todos: una creciente presión sobre el tipo de cambio que termina en gran devaluación. La única duda es cuánto esté dispuesto el gobierno a atrasar el tipo de cambio. Nuestra lectura es que el desfasaje actual es tan grande que afectará muy negativamente a la actividad y el empleo y que en consecuencia “algo harán”. Ese “algo”, sin dudas, será una nueva devaluación.
Queda una vez más a la vista la célebre frase de Friedrich Hegel: Si algo nos enseña la historia es que no aprendemos de la historia.
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