80% de las empresas no piensa contratar personal

“Los planes de contratación para el primer trimestre de 2015 no muestran signos de recuperación y bajan tanto trimestral como interanualmente. Cabe mencionar que, tal como sucedió en el trimestre anterior, más del 80% de los empleadores no planean hacer cambios en sus nóminas, lo que demuestra cierta cautela de […]

“Los planes de contratación para el primer trimestre de 2015 no muestran signos de recuperación y bajan tanto trimestral como interanualmente. Cabe mencionar que, tal como sucedió en el trimestre anterior, más del 80% de los empleadores no planean hacer cambios en sus nóminas, lo que demuestra cierta cautela de su parte”, sostuvo Alfredo Fagalde, Director General de ManpowerGroup Argentina.

Comparaciones por sector

Los empleadores de siete de los nueve sectores económicos esperan incrementar sus niveles de dotación en el próximo trimestre. La perspectiva más positiva corresponde a Administración Pública y Educación con una ENE de +13%. Los niveles de contratación para los sectores de Finanzas, Seguros y Bienes Raíces y Servicios son moderadamente optimistas con una ENE de +8% y +7% respectivamente. Por su parte, los empleadores de Agricultura y Pesca y Construcción reportan una ENE de +5%. En tanto, los sectores Comercio Mayorista y Minorista y Transportes y Servicios Públicos prevén una baja en sus nóminas de dos y un punto porcentual, respectivamente.

En la comparación trimestral, las intenciones de contratación se debilitan en cinco de los nueve sectores de la economía. La caída más notoria -de dieciséis puntos porcentuales- se reporta en el sector de Transportes y Servicios Públicos que, luego de un último trimestre de gran performance, manifiesta el nivel más débil y el primero negativo desde el comienzo de la Encuesta. El sector de Minería* presenta una baja de ocho puntos porcentuales y llega a su punto más bajo desde el segundo trimestre de 2013. Por otra parte, los empleadores de cuatro sectores reportan planes de contratación más fuertes, siendo los más significativos los de Administración Pública y Educación (+7%) y Finanzas, Seguros y Bienes Raíces (+6%).

Comparado con el mismo período de 2014, los empleadores de seis de los nueve sectores reportan una baja en sus Expectativas de contratación. Las perspectivas para Minería* bajan considerablemente en once puntos porcentuales. Por su parte, las Expectativas se debilitan en 9% y 7% en Comercio Mayorista y Minorista y Construcción, respectivamente. Sin embargo, los planes de contratación mejoran en dos sectores, aumentando doce puntos porcentuales en Administración Pública y tres puntos porcentuales en Agricultura y Pesca.

Comparaciones regionales

Los empleadores anticipan una suba de las contrataciones en cuatro de las seis regiones durante el período Enero – Marzo 2015. Los empleadores de NOA y Patagonia reportan las ENE más fuertes de +9%. Se esperan algunos aumentos de las nóminas en las regiones Pampeana y AMBA (Ámbito Metropolitano de Buenos Aires) con ENE de +5% y+4% respectivamente.

En comparación con el trimestre anterior, los empleadores reportan intenciones de contratación más fuertes en tres de las seis regiones. Los planes de contratación de la región NOA mejoran en siete puntos porcentuales, seguido por la región Pampeana (+2%) y Patagonia (+1%). Por su parte, los empleadores de NEA y AMBA reportan expectativas decrecientes de nueve y cuatro puntos porcentuales respectivamente, siendo éstos sus niveles más bajos desde 2009.

En la comparación interanual, las expectativas también mejoran en tres de las seis regiones. Los empleadores de Patagonia reportan un incremento de siete puntos porcentuales en sus expectativas, mientras que en las regiones Pampeana y NOA aumentan en tres y dos puntos porcentuales respectivamente. Sin embargo, los planes de contratación se debilitan en las otras tres regiones, incluyendo una baja de doce y siete puntos porcentuales para NEA y AMBA respectivamente.

En cuanto a los diez países encuestados en las Américas, los empleadores pronostican un aumento de las nóminas de personal entre Enero y Marzo. Los planes de contratación se fortalecen en cinco países, se debilitan en tres y se mantienen estables en dos comparados trimestralmente. Sin embargo, se espera un menor ritmo de contratación en relación al mismo período de 2014 en seis países, con mejoras en otros tres y sin cambios en uno. Panamá es el país que mejores perspectivas presenta para este período mientras que Argentina se reporta las más débiles.

A nivel mundial, los planes de contratación son positivos en su mayoría, siendo 38 de los 42 países encuestados los que esperan un mayor ritmo de contratación para el primer trimestre 2015. Los pronósticos son más fuertes cuando se los compara tanto trimestral como interanualmente: para el primer caso, se presentan mejoras en veintidós países y bajas en doce, mientras que, para el segundo, se prevén aumentos en 24 países y descensos en trece.

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80% de las empresas no piensa contratar personal

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