Encuestas que confunden

En las últimas semanas, la aparición de contradictorias encuestas, han logrado confundir al sector de la opinión pública que habitualmente sigue con atención los avatares políticos. Por Jorge Giacobbe ¿Puede haber tanta diferencia entre encuestas respecto de la intención de voto a presidente 2015? ¿Hay razones objetivas, por ejemplo metodologías […]

En las últimas semanas, la aparición de contradictorias encuestas, han logrado confundir al sector de la opinión pública que habitualmente sigue con atención los avatares políticos.

Por Jorge Giacobbe

¿Puede haber tanta diferencia entre encuestas respecto de la intención de voto a presidente 2015? ¿Hay razones objetivas, por ejemplo metodologías de investigación, que puedan generar enormes disparidades? Nosotros tendemos a pensar que no.

En esa dirección, la de poner sobre la mesa datos indiscutibles que sirvan para aclarar la situación, presentamos ante ustedes el resultado de las cinco elecciones ya realizadas hacia la presidencia 2015. Hablamos de Salta, Neuquén, Mendoza, Santa Fe y Ciudad de Buenos Aires.

Cuatro de ellas corresponden a PASO y la restante (Neuquén) a la elección definitiva del gobernador provincial.

En las cinco elecciones señaladas votaron afirmativamente 5.170.189 personas. El PRO se presentó (solo o en alianza) en cuatro distritos. El FPV en los cinco distritos. El FR solo en cuatro.

De tal modo si dividimos la cantidad de votos obtenidos por cada fuerza por la cantidad de votos totales válidos, tendremos que el PRO obtuvo el 35,79% de los votos totales (1.850.730), que el FPV obtuvo el 28,12% de los votos totales (1.454.332) y que el FR obtuvo el 15,01% de los votos totales (776.467).

Las porcentualidades consignadas en el párrafo anterior adquieren esas cuantías considerando que el FR tuvo 0 votos en Neuquén (no tuvo candidatos) y que el PRO tuvo 0 votos en Salta (por no contar con candidato propio).

Si lo analizáramos de otra manera, procediendo a obtener los porcentajes de cada fuerza solo en base a los distritos en que ha participado. El PRO habría obtenido hasta ahora el 40,66% de los votos, el FPV el 28,12% y FR el 16,06% de los votos.

Todos tendremos que coincidir en que en estos números (votos ciertos), que pertenecen a poco más del 25% del total del padrón de electores argentinos, no hay verso posible.

Insistimos entonces en recordar que nuestra consultora pronosticó a principios de marzo último 31,2% para Macri, 19% para Scioli y 15% para Massa

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Encuestas que confunden

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