Palma Cané: “La FED subirá las tasas recién a fin de año”

Para Luis Palma Cané el crecimiento del PBI de Estados Unidos va a mejorar sustancialmente en el segundo trimestre, con lo cual sería altamente probable que el inicio de la suba de tasas recién empiece a lo largo del tercero o cuarto. No obstante, para el economista, conociendo la posición […]

Para Luis Palma Cané el crecimiento del PBI de Estados Unidos va a mejorar sustancialmente en el segundo trimestre, con lo cual sería altamente probable que el inicio de la suba de tasas recién empiece a lo largo del tercero o cuarto. No obstante, para el economista, conociendo la posición de “paloma” de la titular del organismo, dicha suba será lenta, gradual y conforme a la evolución de los niveles de empleo y de la tasa de inflación.

El crecimiento del PBI en el primer trimestre sólo fue del 0,2% contra un estimado del orden del 1%. En el período anterior la expansión fue muy superior (2,2%).

La FED, por su parte, afirmó que dicho escenario de bajo crecimiento ha sido coyuntural como consecuencia de factores transitorios; en especial: pésimas condiciones climáticas (las peores de los últimos 20 años), fuerte caída del petróleo y revaluación del dólar. Estos factores provocaron una desaceleración en el consumo privado, caídas en la inversión de las empresas energéticas y baja del nivel de exportaciones.

Este escenario es meramente coyuntural, ya que no responde a los “fundamentals” estructurales de la economía americana, los cuales permanecen sólidos.
Consecuentemente, mantenemos nuestro pronóstico de un crecimiento interanual del orden del 2,5%.

En síntesis, la FED admite que la economía norteamericana se ha desacelerado en el primer trimestre aunque sólo en forma “transitoria” y que , en consecuencia, es altamente probable que la recuperación se vaya dando a lo largo de los dos próximos trimestres. Por lo por tanto, es dable de esperar que la suba de la tasa de interés recién comience en los últimos meses del año. Asimismo, de acuerdo a la tradicional posición “dovisch” de Janet Yellen , la misma se haría en forma lenta , gradual y conforme a la evolución de los dos objetivos de la FED, esto es: empleo y precios.

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Palma Cané: “La FED subirá las tasas recién a fin de año”

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