Más lejos del acuerdo con los “buitres”

Para Daniel Artana, economista jefe de FIEL, la calma financiera de las últimas semanas parece alejar la posibilidad de que se concrete un acuerdo con los fondos buitres a comienzos del año 2015. Con una mezcla de financiamiento externo de cortísimo plazo y un reemplazo parcial en el financiamiento inflacionario […]

Para Daniel Artana, economista jefe de FIEL, la calma financiera de las últimas semanas parece alejar la posibilidad de que se concrete un acuerdo con los fondos buitres a comienzos del año 2015.
Con una mezcla de financiamiento externo de cortísimo plazo y un reemplazo parcial en el financiamiento inflacionario del déficit fiscal por endeudamiento público (emisión de bonos dollar-linked) se calmó la presión sobre el dólar marginal y aumentaron algo las reservas del Banco Central. Si la calma se prolonga ¿para qué pagar el costo político de llegar a un acuerdo que sólo es posible si la Argentina mejora sustancialmente la oferta
respecto del valor del canje de 2010?
Hoy se vive una situación especial. Los fondos y particulares
que tienen sentencia firme en Nueva York no tienen muchos incentivos a ceder en su reclamo porque podrían negociar con el futuro gobierno que,posiblemente,tendrá mayor urgencia en resolver el problema para acceder a financiamiento externo; y la espera está bien remunerada a la tasa de interés que reconoce el juzgado.
El gobierno tendría un incentivo a arreglar sólo si ello le permitiese acceder a divisas para lograr que la economía crezca en 2015. Pero para evitar el receso, además del arreglo que destrabaría el acceso a fondos para el Estado, se necesita el aporte de fondos al sector privado,que lucen distantes si no se corrige el atraso cambiario.
A medida que pase el tiempo sin arreglar,aumentan las chances de una aceleración de quienes no pueden cobrar sus intereses por el bloqueo de fondos, lo cual complicaría seriamente el panorama. Pero al menos,por ahora,ello no parece preocupar demasiado al gobierno.
Sin embargo, la evolución reciente de las variables económicas
externas relevantes no permite ser optimista para el año próximo. La desaceleración de la economía china y la ausencia de recuperación en Europa y Japón impactan negativamente en el precio de las commodities. Si bien la reducción en el precio del petróleo es un alivio para las importaciones de Argentina,su efecto es muy inferior al que generan el menor precio de la soja y un año de transición con ajuste fiscal y externo en Brasil.
Las exportaciones e importaciones están cayendo a un ritmo anual del orden de 10% en dólares corrientes. Las proyecciones de FIEL contemplan que esa tendencia continuará el año próximo, con ventas al exterior que caerían 10.000 millones de dólares e
importaciones que se reducirían en 7.000 millones. Una reducción de esa magnitud sólo es posible con un mayor receso.
El gobierno no puede utilizar ahora las reservas del Banco Central para intentar cambiar el panorama recesivo porque corre el riesgo de acelerar la caída de depósitos, medida a precios constantes, que se viene dando desde hace varios meses. Pero sí
puede intentar un uso de reservas algo más agresivo en el último semestre de su mandato porque las expectativas de un mejor manejo en la política económica de la próxima administración
reducirían el riesgo de una corrida.
En cualquier caso,no habría divisas netas suficientes para poder evitar el receso el año próximo, pero si los tiempos se manejan con cuidado,se podría aliviar un poco la restricción de divisas para las importaciones a medida que se acerque la fecha de las
Elec ciones presidenciales y, al mismo tiempo, evitar una crisis cambiaria y cumplir con los compromisos de deuda pública del año próximo.

Keynes en economía abierta

Aún a pesar del ajuste real de salarios y jubilaciones que apaña la política oficial, el
déficit fiscal sigue en aumento y una parte importante se financia con emisión. Sin
embargo, ello no ha permitido evitar una recesión con un impacto visible en los niveles
de empleo (y ocultado en la tasa de desempleo por una poca creíble reducción de
la cantidad de personas que busca trabajar).
La economía no tiene hoy los dólares para poder evitar el receso y mucho menos crecer. Además, políticas fiscal y monetaria más expansivas chocan contra una oferta de bienes y servicios cada vez más restringida por los problemas de abastecimiento de insumos. Y finalmente, el atraso cambiario se potencia cuanto mayor es el ritmo de aumento en el gasto en no transables, que es el grueso de las erogaciones estatales.
En el pasado, la suba en el precio de la soja o la apreciación del Real brasileño
permitían “cuadrar el círculo” a pesar de las inconsistencias en la política económica. Y
ese aumento de la torta, junto una moneda débil y una situación fiscal mucho mejor que la actual, escondían bajo la alfombra los problemas de la ineficiencia en el gasto público financiado con impuestos crecientes y distorsivos, de los serios desequilibrios
de precios relativos y de una protección desmedida que protege a sectores ineficientes que sólo pueden sobrevivir si abusan de los consumidores. Un ejemplo más de populismo apañado por una parte del sector privado que sólo sabe vivir de los favores del Estado.
*Economista de FIEL

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Más lejos del acuerdo con los “buitres”

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