Hacia una estanflación moderada

Prensa Económica 7 años ago 1196

La estanflación seguiría en 2015, según el análisis de la Consultora Economía y Regiones. Una estanflación muy fuerte sería peligrosa, porque podría derivar en crisis, pero una estanflación moderada le serviría al gobierno, al requerir menos dólares la economía y poder financiarse con inflación. La probabilidad de atemperar la estanflación […]

La estanflación seguiría en 2015, según el análisis de la Consultora Economía y Regiones. Una estanflación muy fuerte sería peligrosa, porque podría derivar en crisis, pero una estanflación moderada le serviría al gobierno, al requerir menos dólares la economía y poder financiarse con inflación.
La probabilidad de atemperar la estanflación aumenta en la medida que la actual paz
financiera se mantenga en el tiempo. ¿Son sustentables en el tiempo los 4 pilares sobre los
que se cimienta la actual paz financiera que logró la dupla Kicillof / Vanoli?
Primero y principal, se aplica nuevamente una política de tipo de cambio nominal cuasi fijo
(0,8% de devaluación mensual) que actúa como ancla (imperfecta) anti inflacionaria, bajando
la inflación a niveles anualizados del 30%/33%. El gobierno intentará seguir usando el atraso
del tipo de cambio oficial y de las tarifas como anclas macro y de sostenimiento del poder de
compra, resistiendo otra devaluación; aunque implique perder reservas y ahogar al sector
exportador.
Segundo, el gobierno sabe que la política de dólar cuasi fijo tiene que ser acompañada sí o sí
por una política de “rascar la olla” de divisas (cepo, swaps, adelanto exportadores, telefonía
celular, etc) para que las reservas no caigan y por una férrea política de contención del dólar
paralelo (con ventas de dólares oficiales al público, más controles y bonos dólar‐linked).
Tercero, el gobierno está interesado en que siempre haya expectativas de acuerdo con los hold
outs en el primer trimestre de 2015 y un potencial posterior ingreso de dólares frescos a
nuestra economía. Dicho ingreso de dólares le permitiría apuntalar las reservas, reducir las
expectativas de devaluación, de inflación y la brecha cambiaria. Paralelamente, también le
permitiría ser más agresivo con las políticas expansivas de incentivación de la demanda
agregada incurriendo en una menor probabilidad de crisis.
Finalmente en cuarto lugar, el gobierno procurará adelantar la negociación de paritarias para
evitar un agresivo aumento de salarios que termine alimentando la estanflación y los riesgos de devaluación, inflación y crisis macro.
En definitiva, lo más probable es que el escenario 2015 no sea muy diferente al escenario 2014 y también haya una marcada estanflación.

Prensa Económica

https://www.prensaeconomica.com.ar

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