747 empresas realizan el 73 por ciento de las importaciones y de las exportaciones.
Los sectores responsables de la mayor parte de las ventas externas son también los que registran los mayores niveles de importaciones como los cereales, oleaginosas y sus subproductos, terminales automotrices, minería, petróleo y gas.
De acuerdo a un informe de abeceb.com, estos sectores son los más afectados por las restricciones a las importaciones que define el gobierno.
El monitoreo de las compras externas dispuesto por el Gobierno tiene como finalidad la limitación de la salida de divisas para mantener cierto nivel objetivo de superávit comercial.
Pero si esa medida daña la competitividad debido a la estructura productiva de la Argentina, estos instrumentos pueden contribuir -en forma indirecta- a disminuir el saldo de comercio exterior en vez de aumentarlo.
Así un 20% de las exportaciones del país se verán afectadas por las restricciones a las importaciones que dispone el gobierno para retener divisas en el país, en un escenario de intercambio comercial protagonizado por 747 firmas que son las que concentran el mayor volumen de ventas y compras externas, según el informe.
Los principales importadores/ exportadores que se ven afectados por las restricciones sobre las compras externas son los que operan en los sectores industriales tradicionales, como por ejemplo las compañías de la cadena automotriz, metalmecánica y del papel. Estas actividades son las que amplían la canasta de bienes exportables y son las más expuestas a las limitaciones que define el Ejecutivo.
Ante la escasez de dólares, el gobierno restringe las importaciones con medios administrativos que por la estructura productiva de la Argentina puede tener consecuencias a largo plazo: la falta de importaciones daña la competitividad porque las firmas utilizan los insumos importados para producir los bienes y servicios que se exportan. Si las importaciones no están disponibles en cantidad suficiente, los costos de los exportadores aumentan o se deja de producir.
“El mayor daño potencial se relaciona con la dependencia que el entramado productivo del país tiene respecto de insumos y piezas importadas. Cuando las limitaciones para importar causan faltantes, los productores (exportadores) locales se ven imposibilitados de producir y como es lógico reducen sus saldos exportables” analizó Mauricio Claverí, coordinador de Comercio y Negocios Internacionales y subrayó: “el impacto sobre el superávit agregado estará condicionado por el grado de dependencia de los exportadores y por el peso que sus colocaciones tengan sobre las ventas externas totales”.
Si se estudia el universo de empresas que importan y exportan simultáneamente por montos relevantes, se llega a un conjunto formado por 747 empresas, que explican un 73% de las importaciones y a su vez, un 73% de las exportaciones.
Los sectores responsables de la mayor parte de las ventas externas también registran importaciones relevantes: cereales, oleaginosas y sus subproductos, terminales automotrices, minería, petróleo y gas, son algunos de ellos.
No obstante, “no todos se encuentran en la misma situación frente a las restricciones impuestas por la política comercial. La posibilidad de negociar con las autoridades locales una mayor flexibilidad en la liberación de permisos de importación dependerá del flujo de ingreso de divisas vía exportaciones que el segmento genere”, indicó Claverí.
“Desde esta perspectiva, aquellas ramas que registren un ratio importaciones/exportaciones mayor encontrarán más riesgo de cara a las restricciones sobre las importaciones”, precisó.
La última categoría se identifica como aquella que se encuentra en la situación de mayor riesgo dada la actual coyuntura. Dos cuestiones deben contemplarse dentro de los segmentos y compañías ubicados en este nivel:
El mayor ratio de importaciones/exportaciones pertenece a Petróleo y Gas. A pesar de ser empresas que generan un gran déficit de divisas no se espera que estas vean limitadas sus compras externas dada la imposibilidad local de autoabastecimiento energético, las compras de las compañías que extraen y refinan petróleo cuentan con carácter prioritario en la liberación de dólares para la importación.
Por su parte, bajo la categoría de Productos Químicos se agrupa un conjunto heterogéneo de subgrupos de firmas, cada uno en diferente situación. Existen categorías como Producción de Resinas y Caucho Sintético o Fabricación de Productos Veterinarios cuyos coeficientes importación/exportación se encuentran por debajo de 0,7. En oposición, las empresas dedicadas a la Fabricación de Medicamentos registran un coeficiente superior de 3,1.
Para el especialista, “la importancia de una pauta exportadora diversificada es fácil de comprender cuando uno observa la preocupación que genera la reciente caída de los precios internacionales de los commodities”.
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