Dólar: “El momento de comprar es ahora”

    Para Miguel Ángel Boggiano, a principios de 2015, cuando esté claro que los mercados internacionales no tienen incentivos para prestarle a un gobierno en retirara, el dólar se disparará. Así lo analiza el CEO de Carta Financiera: Desde la implementación del cepo cambiario el 31 de octubre de […]

    Para Miguel Ángel Boggiano, a principios de 2015, cuando esté claro que los mercados internacionales no tienen incentivos para prestarle a un gobierno en retirara, el dólar se disparará. Así lo analiza el CEO de Carta Financiera:

Desde la implementación del cepo cambiario el 31 de octubre de 2011, la tendencia de l dólar blue en la Argentina ha ido siempre en una dirección: hacia arriba. En aquel entonces valía $4,49 y hoy está en $13,50. Está claro que esta crecida no ha sido necesariamente en línea recta. Pero también tenemos que entender que el precio de ningún activo se mueve de manera lineal.

El 17 de enero de 2013 escribí “Dólar Blue va camino a los $10”. Ese día, el blue valía $7,50 y yo estimaba que el pronóstico de los $10 debía llegar hacia mediados de año (se terminó dando a comienzos de mayo de 2013). El 20 de octubre de 2013, escribí “Dólar blue camino a $12” y para fines de enero de 2014 ya había vuelto a tener razón. “Argentina en default: a comprar dólar blue” fue escrita el 2 de agosto con el blue en $12,80 y dos meses después, ya se encontraba en $16.

Por último “Dólar a 20” fue escrita el 21 de septiembre de este año; allí indicaba que “como tarde, esto debería darse en marzo de 2015”. Este escenario sigue vigente. Sigan leyendo y entenderán por qué.

Desde la asunción de Vanoli como Presidente del Banco Central, el dólar blue tuvo una caída desde la zona de los 16 pesos a los 12,50, lo que representa una caída de aproximadamente el 22%. ¿Alcanza esto para d ecir que la tendencia alcista en el dólar ha finalizado? No: es absolutamente prematuro afirmar esto. ¿El motivo? El dólar tuvo caídas de magnitud similar en el pasado, luego de lo cual siguió subiendo. Tal fue el caso cuando alcanzó los 10,80 hacia junio de 2013 y después cayó a la zona de 8, y cuando alcanzó los 13 pesos en febrero de este año para retroceder hasta 10,50.

¿Por qué cayó el dólar blue? Porque se impidió la operatoria del Contado con Liquidación (el volumen transado cayó en un 90%). El Contado con Liquidación es el mercado blanco libre del dólar. ¿Cómo se impidió la operatoria? A través de todo tipo de presiones (investigaciones de la AFIP y acechos legales) a los participantes de ese mercado. Pero lo más importante: el dólar no cayó por cambio de expectativas. Si así hubiera sido, el Boden15 no seguiría teniendo un rendimiento absurdamente alto como lo tiene.

Sin embargo, además de hacer este análisis descriptivo del pasado, no debemos perder de vista lo esencial. El problema que genera la caída del valor del peso continúa sin solución. Cae porque el estado gasta más de lo que recauda y esa diferencia la cubre imprimiendo pesos. Es así de simple. Y con un año electoral en puerta, no hay nada que indique que el estado vaya a actuar con siquiera un poco de la disciplina fiscal que debería tener. Veamos cómo está intentando financiar este gran gasto minimizando la necesidad de imprimir pesos:

Dos grandes caminos: endeudamiento interno y esterilización. ¿Qué quieren decir?

El endeudamiento interno ha sido una novedad que exploró el gobierno recientemente a través de la emisión de bonos “dollar linked” (atados al precio del dólar oficial). Sin embargo esta es una vía muy limitada y sólo se han conseguido colocar el equivalente a unos $14,000 millones de pesos, muy poco comparado con los $200,000 millones de pesos de ampliación de gasto anunciados en agosto de este año y los $57,000 millones extra anunciados hace dos semanas.

El resto se ha estado financiando imprimiendo pesos, pero con una particularidad: al tiempo que el gobierno distribuía esos pesos para pagar sus gastos, instruía al Banco Central para que se endeude por montos similares con deuda de corto plazo (las ll amadas LEBACS o Letras del Banco Central). Esta operación conjunta se conoce como la esterilización del gasto. Pero cualquier persona con un mínimo de sentido común entenderá que esta es sólo una solución de corto plazo y no es más que esconder la basura debajo de la alfombra: no se puede jugar este juego de manera indefinida. El gobierno cree que puede llegar hasta.

Acá empieza la parte más interesante.

La gran apuesta del gobierno es resolver el problema con los holdouts apenas iniciado 2015 para luego tener vía libre para endeudarse en el exterior y llegar con aire al final del próximo año. El problema, considero, es que están subestimando los tiempos. Han dado sobradas pru ebas de impericia para resolver problemas y no conocen los tiempos de los mercados de capitales.

Cuando comience 2015 y estén a la vista las dificultades para lograr un acuerdo y los pocos incentivos de los prestamistas internacionales de prestarle dinero a un gobierno en retirada, el dólar se disparará. Para eso, hay que adelantarse a la jugada: el momento de compra es hoy.

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Dólar: “El momento de comprar es ahora”

tiempo de lectura: 3 min