En abril las expectativas económicas se recuperan levemente quebrando la tendencia negativa de los últimos meses según el Índice General de Expectativas Económicas (IGEE) elaborado por Kantar.
El IGEE mide la percepción de la gente acerca de la situación económica y laboral en el país. En su edición de Abril, se nota una leve recuperación respecto de la medición de marzo. Si bien, se mantiene en niveles muy bajos (cerca del piso de la serie histórica) rompe con la tendencia negativa que había experimentado desde enero de este año.
En parte, esta variación se debe a que se recuperan algunos indicadores, destacándose la percepción de la situación de empleo (el que más se deterioró en la medición pasada) y las expectativas de ingresos a futuro.
“Luego de 3 caídas consecutivas, en abril el IGEE se recupera un punto pasando de 65 a 66. Es apresurado saber si esta recuperación logrará consolidarse en una nueva tendencia positiva, sin embargo, rompe con una racha de 3 meses seguidos con números en rojo. Hay que tener en cuenta que el IGEE se mantiene en niveles muy bajos, incluso menores que los de diciembre de 2018, mes en el que se registró la última variación positiva” –comentó Julieta Dejean, Head of Client Management de la División Insights de Kantar.
El IGEE de abril no evoluciona de manera uniforme en todos los segmentos. Es impulsado principalmente por el interior del país, los mayores de 30 años y los de nivel socioeconómico alto. “Si bien en todos los segmentos aún se registran índices muy bajos, es interesante observar algunas diferencias. Por ejemplo, en los grupos etarios: mientras que los jóvenes tienen una visión más crítica, los mayores de 30 y 40 años son los que presentan una evolución positiva y tienen una mejor percepción. Esto indica claramente que la situación actual no afecta a todos los grupos por igual y que las expectativas respecto del futuro van a ser diferentes en cada segmento” -analizó Dejean.
En esta medición se retrae muy levemente la disposición a la compra de bienes durables. Éste es el único indicador que cae, impidiendo una recuperación más significativa del índice general. “La disposición a la compra de bienes durables se mantiene estancada en el piso de la serie, cayendo un punto en abril. Va a ser interesante ver su evolución. Una recuperación mayor de los demás indicadores es poco probable si no va de la mano con la recuperación de la compra” -agregó Dejean.
“La leve mejoría del IGEE puede estar relacionada con algunos anuncios realizados como, por ejemplo, el programa precios esenciales, los cambios en la política cambiaria y los nuevos programas de créditos. Además, los precios dieron un relativo respiro en abril, que registró una tasa de inflación por debajo de la de marzo” –comentó Dejean.
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