Precios de soja y maíz: no hay rebote a la vista

No hay posibilidades de que en los próximos meses se produzca un rebote de los alicaídos precios internacionales del agro, según el análisis del especialista agroopecuario Alejandro Ramírez.  A la super cosecha americana, se suman la producción guardada en silos de Argentina y las perspectivas de excelentes cosechas para 2015 […]

No hay posibilidades de que en los próximos meses se produzca un rebote de los alicaídos precios internacionales del agro, según el análisis del especialista agroopecuario Alejandro Ramírez.  A la super cosecha americana, se suman la producción guardada en silos de Argentina y las perspectivas de excelentes cosechas para 2015 en la región.   Todo esto conspira para quienes alientan esperanzas en la Argentina que dichos precios hayan tocado fondo y en el corto plazo vuelvan a apuntar hacia arriba.  Así lo analiza Alejandro Ramírez:

 

Cada vez falta menos para que el gigante del norte de América termine con los últimos lotes de sus cosechas y todos seamos testigos de lo obtenido: súper mega cosecha de maíz e importantísima cosecha de soja. En el caso del cereal, se continúan barajando cifras por arriba de las 366 millones de toneladas. De concretarse estos guarismos, la oferta mundial se recompondría de tal manera que no importaría el mayor uso para producción de etanol o que en el sudeste asiático utilicen más maíz para la alimentación de los ganados. Estas importantísimas cifras de producción, además de recomponer la oferta, recomponen en forma interesante los stocks, dando tranquilidad a los países importadores. También genera sosiego a los propios estadounidenses que consumen cada vez más etanol, buscando “despegar” de los combustibles fósiles. Lógicamente aquí se abre la discusión sobre los precios del petróleo –terriblemente bajos- contra el valor posible del maíz. De continuar con está tendencia de chatura en los precios del petróleo, las posibilidades de que el maíz tenga un cambio de tendencia hacia arriba se encontraría lejana. Pero ese es otro tema. La cosecha está en vísperas de terminar, y recién ahí tendremos las cifras finales que suministrará el Departamento de Agricultura norteamericano (USDA).
La soja también dará alivio a las fábricas y exportadores, porque según los últimos informes, los farmers podrían llegar a redondear una cosecha de 107 millones de toneladas. También se produciría recomposición de oferta y stocks. A pesar de que se encuentran en aumento las importaciones de China, India, Egipto y demás países habituales compradores, las cifras de producción mundial de la oleaginosa complacerían cómodamente las necesidades de la demanda. Y aquí es donde el mundo nos mira de reojo. En principio para ver como vienen los trabajos de preparación de los terrenos y siembra en Brasil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia y lógicamente Argentina.

Pero entre estos países hermanos y vecinos, debemos marcar diferencias importantísimas. De todos los países nombrados, las posibilidades de aumento de la producción son precisas en todos salvo el nuestro, porque los productores sudamericanos reciben los valores que corresponden de acuerdo a las cotizaciones internacionales, teniendo libertad de mercados. Nosotros no. De esta forma, se genera incertidumbre e intranquilidad en nuestros chacareros que ven como no se autorizan los permisos de exportación, cuando ya se están sembrando las semillas. Es más, en el caso del trigo ya se está cosechando, y las exportaciones continúan cerradas. Además, la incógnita que surge en los escritorios de los brokers internacionales es cuando y a que precio venderán los productores argentinos las 16 millones de toneladas de soja que se encuentran “bien guardadas”. A pesar de que algún pícaro rompa algún silo bolsa, la decisión de comercialización pasa por el hombre de campo argentino. Y ese tonelaje de oferta se encuentra “contabilizado” a nivel mundial. Cuando entrará en el circuito, no se tiene certeza, pero que ingresará en algún momento, de eso hay plena seguridad.
Atención, que si el clima acompaña, vamos camino a que Sudamérica obtenga unas excelentes cosechas 2015. Más producción, más oferta, más stocks, una demanda sostenida pero calma.
Y entendemos que todos sabemos que podría pasar con los valores.
Hay que esperar.

Alejandro Ramírez
Analista Agropecuario.

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Precios de soja y maíz: no hay rebote a la vista

tiempo de lectura: 3 min