La cotización del dólar registró un aumento del 0,68% en relación al mes anterior, de esta manera, se acumulan 59 meses de aumentos consecutivos. La cotización del Euro registró un descenso de 0,23% en relación al mes anterior. El Real, por su parte, un aumento de 0,18% conformando un ciclo de 6 meses consecutivos de aumentos.
Estos datos surgen del Monitor de Inversiones Minoristas (M.I.M), elaborado por el Center for Business Research and Studies de la Graduate School of Business de la Universidad de Palermo, es un informe que abarca la evolución reciente de las tasas bancarias de plazo fijo en pesos y la cotización de las principales monedas en un conjunto de establecimientos bancarios de la región metropolitana y del Gran Buenos Aires. El objetivo de este trabajo es difundir mensualmente un índice de tasas de plazo fijo, elaborado con datos propios, para observar cómo se comportan éstas, mientras se valorizan en un recorte temporal determinado.
Resultados
Desde 2011, el Center for Business Research and Studies Graduate School of Business de la Universidad de Palermo difunde mensualmente un índice de tasas de plazo fijo elaborado con datos propios. Los datos difundidos semanalmente tienen un carácter preliminar mientras que los consolidados mensuales un carácter definitivo.
La cotización del billete estadounidense DÓLAR registró un aumento del 0,68% en relación al mes anterior. De esta manera, se acumulan 59 meses de aumentos consecutivos. La moneda acumuló un aumento del 44,8% en los últimos doce meses.
La cotización del EURO registró un descenso de 0,23% en relación al mes anterior conformando un ciclo de 3 meses consecutivos de caídas. Por lo tanto, la moneda acumuló una suba de 37,6% en los últimos doce meses.
El REAL, por su parte, registró un aumento de 0,18% conformando un ciclo de 6 meses consecutivos de aumentos. La moneda acumuló una suba del 36,2% en los últimos doce meses.
Las tasas de interés de plazo fijo registraron variaciones que oscilan entre un -3,4% y -0,7% (largo plazo temporal). En promedio, los diferentes plazos temporales han evolucionado un -1,9% en el último mes. Este retroceso conforma un ciclo de 5 meses consecutivos de caídas en las tasas.
En retrospectiva y considerando que un plazo fijo realizado en octubre de 2013 pagaba un 18,7%, el ranking de la inversión ideal de los últimos doce meses fue: 1) Dólar (44,8%);2) Euro (37,6%); 3) Real(36,2%); 4)Plazo fijo (18,7%).
El cuadro Nº1 muestra la evolución de las tasas de plazo fijo en pesos durante el último mes.
CUADRO Nº1: PLAZOS FIJOS EN PESOS
EVOLUCIÓN SEGÚN TIPO PROMEDIO Sept. 2014 PROMEDIO Octubre 2014 EVOL (%) mensual
30 DÍAS TRADICIONAL 19.4 22.3 15.0
60 DÍAS TRADICIONAL 19.9 22.8 14.5
90 DÍAS TRADICIONAL 20.9 23.9 14.4
120 DIÁS TRADICIONAL 21.4 24.0 12.0
150 DÍAS TRADICIONAL 21.3 24.0 12.7
180 DÍAS TRADICIONAL 22.2 24.1 8.5
365 DÍAS TRADICIONAL 23.2 24.3 4.4
180 DÍAS PREMIUM 23.1 24.2 4.9
365 DÍAS PREMIUM 22.7 24.2 6.7
180 DÍAS PRECANCELABLE 20.4 23.9 17.4
365 DÍAS PRECANCELABLE 20.9 24.0 14.9
Elaboración propia Center for Business Research and Studies Graduate School of Business de la Universidad de Palermo.
A manera de ilustrar lo expuesto en este informe, considérese las posibles situaciones que enfrenta un inversor medio para invertir un dinero a partir de los siguientes supuestos:
• Expectativa de precios: 34,0%
• Expectativa tasa de devaluación dólar: 25%
• Expectativa tasa de devaluación euro: 27%
• Expectativa tasa de plazo fijo 365 días TRADICIONAL: 24.2%
Acción que se realiza hoy Resultado en 1 año (* en términos reales $)
Se tienen $100 y se guardan en el colchón. Se tienen $74.62
Se tienen $100 y se hace un plazo fijo anual (365 tradicional) Se tienen $92.76
Se tienen $100 y se compran dólares para su guarda Se tienen $93.28
Se tienen $100 y se compran euros para su guarda Se tienen $94.77
Elaboración Universidad de Palermo.
La referencia términos reales refiere al efecto combinado de los supuestos listados en relación con el poder adquisitivo del dinero invertido.
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