Aumento significativo en tasas de interés de plazo fijo

La cotización del dólar registró un aumento del 0,68% en relación al mes anterior, de esta manera, se acumulan 59 meses de aumentos consecutivos. La cotización del Euro registró un descenso de 0,23% en relación al mes anterior. El Real, por su parte, un aumento de 0,18% conformando un ciclo […]

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La cotización del dólar registró un aumento del 0,68% en relación al mes anterior, de esta manera, se acumulan 59 meses de aumentos consecutivos. La cotización del Euro registró un descenso de 0,23% en relación al mes anterior. El Real, por su parte, un aumento de 0,18% conformando un ciclo de 6 meses consecutivos de aumentos.

Estos datos surgen del Monitor de Inversiones Minoristas (M.I.M), elaborado por el Center for Business Research and Studies de la Graduate School of Business de la Universidad de Palermo, es un informe que abarca la evolución reciente de las tasas bancarias de plazo fijo en pesos y la cotización de las principales monedas en un conjunto de establecimientos bancarios de la región metropolitana y del Gran Buenos Aires. El objetivo de este trabajo es difundir mensualmente un índice de tasas de plazo fijo, elaborado con datos propios, para observar cómo se comportan éstas, mientras se valorizan en un recorte temporal determinado.

Resultados

Desde 2011, el Center for Business Research and Studies Graduate School of Business de la Universidad de Palermo difunde mensualmente un índice de tasas de plazo fijo elaborado con datos propios. Los datos difundidos semanalmente tienen un carácter preliminar mientras que los consolidados mensuales un carácter definitivo.

La cotización del billete estadounidense DÓLAR registró un aumento del 0,68% en relación al mes anterior. De esta manera, se acumulan 59 meses de aumentos consecutivos. La moneda acumuló un aumento del 44,8% en los últimos doce meses.

La cotización del EURO registró un descenso de 0,23% en relación al mes anterior conformando un ciclo de 3 meses consecutivos de caídas. Por lo tanto, la moneda acumuló una suba de 37,6% en los últimos doce meses.

El REAL, por su parte, registró un aumento de 0,18% conformando un ciclo de 6 meses consecutivos de aumentos. La moneda acumuló una suba del 36,2% en los últimos doce meses.

Las tasas de interés de plazo fijo registraron variaciones que oscilan entre un -3,4% y -0,7% (largo plazo temporal). En promedio, los diferentes plazos temporales han evolucionado un -1,9% en el último mes. Este retroceso conforma un ciclo de 5 meses consecutivos de caídas en las tasas.

En retrospectiva y considerando que un plazo fijo realizado en octubre de 2013 pagaba un 18,7%, el ranking de la inversión ideal de los últimos doce meses fue: 1) Dólar (44,8%);2) Euro (37,6%); 3) Real(36,2%); 4)Plazo fijo (18,7%).

El cuadro Nº1 muestra la evolución de las tasas de plazo fijo en pesos durante el último mes.

CUADRO Nº1: PLAZOS FIJOS EN PESOS

EVOLUCIÓN SEGÚN TIPO      PROMEDIO Sept. 2014      PROMEDIO Octubre 2014       EVOL (%) mensual

30 DÍAS TRADICIONAL            19.4                                                22.3                                                     15.0
60 DÍAS TRADICIONAL             19.9                                                22.8                                                     14.5
90 DÍAS TRADICIONAL             20.9                                                23.9                                                    14.4
120 DIÁS TRADICIONAL           21.4                                                 24.0                                                   12.0
150 DÍAS TRADICIONAL           21.3                                                 24.0                                                   12.7
180 DÍAS TRADICIONAL           22.2                                                 24.1                                                     8.5
365 DÍAS TRADICIONAL           23.2                                                 24.3                                                     4.4
180 DÍAS PREMIUM                    23.1                                                 24.2                                                      4.9
365 DÍAS PREMIUM                    22.7                                                24.2                                                      6.7
180 DÍAS PRECANCELABLE     20.4                                                 23.9                                                    17.4
365 DÍAS PRECANCELABLE     20.9                                                 24.0                                                    14.9

Elaboración propia Center for Business Research and Studies Graduate School of Business de la Universidad de Palermo.

A manera de ilustrar lo expuesto en este informe, considérese las posibles situaciones que enfrenta un inversor medio para invertir un dinero a partir de los siguientes supuestos:

Expectativa de precios: 34,0%

Expectativa tasa de devaluación dólar: 25%

Expectativa tasa de devaluación euro: 27%

Expectativa tasa de plazo fijo 365 días TRADICIONAL: 24.2%

Acción que se realiza hoy                                                  Resultado en 1 año (* en términos reales $)
Se tienen $100 y se guardan en el colchón.                                                 Se tienen $74.62
Se tienen $100 y se hace un plazo fijo anual (365 tradicional)            Se tienen $92.76
Se tienen $100 y se compran dólares para su guarda                              Se tienen $93.28
Se tienen $100 y se compran euros para su guarda                                 Se tienen $94.77

Elaboración Universidad de Palermo.

La referencia términos reales refiere al efecto combinado de los supuestos listados en relación con el poder adquisitivo del dinero invertido.

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Aumento significativo en tasas de interés de plazo fijo

tiempo de lectura: 3 min