¿Se viene un “veranito” cambiario y de consumo?

En medio de una acuciante escasez de divisas y persistente deterioro de las finanzas públicas, las colocaciones de deuda en dólares tanto del gobierno nacional como de YPF, trajeron algo de aire fresco en los frentes externo y fiscal, según un informe del Banco Ciudad. Aprovechando un contexto externo favorable […]

En medio de una acuciante escasez de divisas y persistente deterioro de las finanzas públicas, las colocaciones de deuda en dólares tanto del gobierno nacional como de YPF, trajeron algo de aire fresco en los frentes externo y fiscal, según un informe del Banco Ciudad.

Aprovechando un contexto externo favorable para las inversiones de riesgo, en una semana en la que el dólar detuvo su tendencia a la apreciación a nivel global y reimpulsó los flujos de capitales hacia los mercados emergentes, revalorizando sus monedas y sosteniendo los precios de las materias primas, el gobierno logró colocar deuda al igual que YPF.

Si bien las tasas pagadas resultan mucho más altas que las conseguidas por otros países de la región, tanto la colocación de Bonar 2024 como la de YPF, contribuyeron a reforzar las menguadas reservas internacionales del Banco Central, las cuales treparon a USD 32.675 millones, su mayor nivel en 17 meses, sólo por la emisión del gobierno nacional, previéndose que se vean incrementadas en USD 1.500 millones adicionales, cuando se integren localmente los fondos conseguidos por YPF en el exterior.

Este refuerzo de casi USD 3.000 millones de las reservas internacionales resulta crucial para poder sostener la actual estrategia de retraso cambiario, que apunta a moderar la inflación y atenuar el proceso recesivo, a través de una recomposición de los salarios reales y en dólares. Asimismo, las mayores reservas internacionales ayudarían a consolidar la idea de que no sólo se podría llegar a las elecciones con la economía gozando de un “veranito” de consumo, sino también con cierta tranquilidad cambiaria, contando con mayores recursos para hacer frente al pago del Boden 2015, con vencimiento en octubre por USD 5.900 millones, junto con USD 1.050 millones de la Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Si bien los problemas de fondo siguen siendo los mismos y los desequilibrios crecientes, el oficialismo es consciente que en un año electoral la coyuntura manda, más allá que los problemas estructurales conlleven, seguramente después de diciembre, a encarar correcciones, ya sea de manera ordenada o desordenada.

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¿Se viene un “veranito” cambiario y de consumo?

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