Por Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, economista de Ecolatina
Si se consigue financiamiento externo hay chances de que la economía salga de la recesión. En caso contrario, la escasez de divisas hará restringir más las importaciones, ahogando al aparato productivo.
Una vez más en 2015 la economía va a girar en torno a la restricción externa, es decir la cantidad de dólares con los que cuenta el país. Este año la falta de dólares impidió que la actividad económica crezca, ya que no había las divisas suficientes como para garantizar el pago de los insumos importados. El año próximo esta dependencia de los dólares será igual o más aguda.
A principios de 2015 el gobierno intentó abrir el financiamiento externo, un proceso que quedó trunco cuando la Corte Suprema de Estados Unidos no tomó el caso argentino y quedó firme el fallo de Griesa. Finalmente el 1º de agosto entramos en default. Esta dinámica se va a reeditar el año que viene. El gobierno tiene un discurso muy agresivo contra los fondos buitre, pero ello no implica que no pueda llegar a un acuerdo, después del 31 de diciembre cuando venza la cláusula RUFO. En ese caso se abriría el crédito para Argentina, algo que sería muy importante el año que viene, cuando habrá vencimientos de la deuda externa más importantes que en 2014. Además las perspectivas de las exportaciones son bastante negativas, en especial por la caída de los precios internacionales de la soja, el maíz y el trigo. Este hecho es muy negativo porque la soja representa casi un tercio de las exportaciones argentinas.
Si se consigue financiamiento externo hay una chance de que la economía salga del escenario recesivo actual. Pero si no se consigue, con vencimientos de la deuda más elevados, la escasez de divisas va a hacer que la restricción de las importaciones sea más fuerte, llegando a ahogar al aparato productivo. De este modo se reeditaría en 2015 el escenario pesimista que enfrentamos este año, con más recesión, más inflación y más escasez de dólares.
Si el gobierno no quisiera avanzar en el arreglo con los holdouts, la otra vía sería conseguir algún financiamiento alternativo, como sería vía China o Rusia. Pero la verdad es que se ha hablado mucho de esa posibilidad, pero no está claro cuántos dólares podrían entrar por ese canal.
RESERVAS Y HOLDOUTS
En el escenario positivo, en el que más allá del discurso, el gobierno llega a un acuerdo con los holdouts y se reabre el financiamiento externo, las reservas no deberían caer en forma significativa e incluso en la última parte del año podría haber un nuevo influjo, con inversores que quieran adelantarse a un cambio positivo a futuro. Esto permitiría inclusive algún tipo de expansión de la actividad. Claro que si no se consigue este financiamiento, estaríamos en un escenario parecido e inclusive más profundo de lo que pasó a principios de este año, con caída de reservas, devaluación y mayor inflación. Con el agravante de que las variables nominales ya han subido escalones, o sea en 2013 estaban en torno al 25 a 30%, hoy están cerrando más cerca del 40% y el año que viene subiría un escalón adicional. Y con un stress cambiario muy siginficativo.
Creemos que los costos económicos de no arreglar con los holdouts son mayores que los costos políticos de tener que cambiar el discurso. Con lo cual vemos la probabilidad de algún tipo de entendimiento. De todos modos la reapertura del financiamiento en 2015 no va a ser tan sencilla, no va a venir una avalancha de dólares, pero alcanzaría como para que el nivel de actividad se mantenga, a su vez la inflación continuaría en niveles similares a este año y con una variación del tipo de cambio parecida a la que va a cerrar este año que estimamos va a estar en torno al 45%. Este es el escenario más probable.
En el escenario negativo se reedita todo lo que pasó en 2014, agravado. No es lo mismo tener dos años seguidos de recesión, alta inflación, devaluación, aumento del desempleo. Sería una evolución más crítica, con consecuencias sociales más importantes que este año.
En este escenario pesimista habría consecuencias cambiarias: el dólar oficial tendría que dar un salto importante, incluso superior al de enero de este año. O cerrar las importaciones al máximo y generar una fortísima recesión, o combinar un poco de restricción de importaciones y una fuerte devaluación.
VOLVER A CRECER
Hoy parecería que el discurso muy agresivo cierra todas las posibilidades de arreglo con los holdouts, pero el pragmatismo del gobierno es suficiente como para darse cuenta que el año que viene sin dólares no tendrá margen de maniobra y entonces ir a una negociación con los acreedores para evitar una situación muchísimo más complicada, con stress cambiario incluido.
Por otro lado, si se llega a un escenario de dos años seguidos de recesión, también los indicadores sociales van a estar bastante golpeados. En caso contrario, si se arregla con los holdouts, el camino va a estar un poquito más allanado como para volver a atraer inversiones en 2016.
Si de da el escenario pesimista durante el año próximo, el 2016 será un año para reordenar todos los frentes para en 2017 volver a crecer. En cambio, si se concreta en 2015 la apertura del financiamiento externo y un leve repunte de la actividad en el segundo semestre, hay chances de que 2016 sea más un año de crecimiento que de reordenar todo.
Si hay una reapertura del crédito externo y Argentina no está en default, teniendo en cuenta que los tres candidatos hoy con más chances de asumir el gobierno, irían hacia una política más promercados, es muy factible que empiecen a entrar inversiones, incluso en el segundo semestre de 2015.
La solución va a requerir mucho gradualismo, porque tenemos atraso cambiario y tarifario. Habrá que recuperar eso lentamente, reduciendo la emisión para financiar el déficit y de a poco induciendo a la baja a las variables nominales.
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