Argentina: una extraña tendencia cambiaria

El dólar se fortalece en el mundo ante la perspectiva de aumentos en la tasa de interés. Sin embargo la política cambiaria argentina no parece ir en consonancia con la tendencia internacional, analiza la consultora Quantum, que dirige Daniel Marx. El reordenamiento monetario en Estados Unidos está generando ajustes en […]

El dólar se fortalece en el mundo ante la perspectiva de aumentos en la tasa de interés. Sin embargo la política cambiaria argentina no parece ir en consonancia con la tendencia internacional, analiza la consultora Quantum, que dirige Daniel Marx.

El reordenamiento monetario en Estados Unidos está generando ajustes en los tipos de cambio. Con un ciclo caracterizado por una tasa de crecimiento moderada, reducciones en la tasa de desempleo y una tasa de inflación alineada con los objetivos de política, la Reserva Federal acaba de anunciar el cese de compras mensuales de bonos. De esta manera se cierra el período de estímulos cuantitativos, lo cual abre el interrogante sobre los próximos pasos en materia de política monetaria. Ya no se debate si se subirá la tasa o no, sino cuando. Ello tendrá consecuencias sobre el crecimiento global, en un contexto donde particularmente Europa enfrenta nuevos desafíos (esta vez con foco en Alemania).

Este nuevo orden viene descontándose desde hace algunos meses, particularmente desde fines de junio, reflejado en caídas en los precios internacionales de productos primarios (soja 25-30%) y petróleo (20%), suba de los rendimientos de los US Treasury con empinamiento de la curva (tasa a 10 años en 2,30%) y un menor flujo de capitales a emergentes
Evolución tipos de cambio Argentina: tipo de cambio e inflación
Junio-Octubre. En % En % y en número índice
Es así como los principales países de la región, otros emergentes y Europa tuvieron que ir convalidando tipos de cambio contra el USD más depreciados. Desde los máximos de fines de junio, América Latina, depreció sus monedas entre 8-11% promedio, con la excepción de Argentina que lo hizo un 3,6% (tipo de cambio oficial), similar a lo ocurrido en Asia (aunque con niveles de productividad, inflación y contextos macroeconómicos distintos). En el mismo período el EUR también se depreció respecto al USD, un 8%.

Particularmente en Argentina, la situación es más compleja cuando se evalúa el comportamiento del tipo de cambio y la inflación. Para el mismo período, la depreciación de 3,6% (nominal) se transforma en una apreciación de 10,5% (real). Más aún, desde la devaluación de enero, el tipo de cambio oficial se depreció 5%, y la inflación acumulada fue 25%. Con esto, la apreciación real supera el 15%. Llamativamente, en el último mes el BCRA depreció el tipo de cambio un 0,6%, muy por debajo de la inflación promedio mensual de 2%-2,4%. En estos términos, la elección del tipo de cambio como ancla nominal no parece ser la estrategia más adecuada, mucho más si se consideran las perspectivas globales, el escenario económico en Brasil y la inercia inflacionaria en Argentina (del orden del 30-33% anual).

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