Los efectos del superdólar ya son visibles

Un informe de la consultora Quantum, destaca que  la etapa de apreciación del dólar en el mundo que se inició a mediados del año pasado, y que se aceleró en los últimos meses, comenzó a mostrar sus primeros efectos. No solamente reflejado en las depreciaciones de distintas monedas (Euro y […]

Un informe de la consultora Quantum, destaca que  la etapa de apreciación del dólar en el mundo que se inició a mediados del año pasado, y que se aceleró en los últimos meses, comenzó a mostrar sus primeros efectos. No solamente reflejado en las depreciaciones de distintas monedas (Euro y Real en Brasil con variaciones significativas, del orden del 17%), sino por sus consecuencias sobre la evolución de los precios de distintos commoditties (petróleo -60%, soja, maíz y petróleo -30% en promedio).

La revalorización del dólar se asocia esencialmente al mejor desempeño relativo de la economía de Estados Unidos, habiendo alcanzado niveles de actividad, gasto y desempleo compatibles con valores de largo plazo, en un contexto de estabilidad de precios.

Con ello comenzó a debatirse la velocidad de convergencia de la política monetaria. La aceleración del crecimiento y mejoras en el empleo llevaron a retirar el estímulo monetario. Sin embargo, la fuerte caída de la inflación está llevando a tasas de interés nominales reducidas mientras dure ese fenómeno.

Respecto del máximo de fines de abril del año pasado, la tasa de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años se redujo 80 puntos básicos (en la actualidad en 1,80 nominal anual). Esa caída en el costo de financiamiento se refleja en un reacomodamiento de igual magnitud en los spreads de la deuda corporativa.
Por otra parte, los créditos soberanos emergentes se deterioraron en función de su exposición a factores y posiciones externos. También hay impactos diferenciales en América Latina. Aquí el promedio se refleja en el aumento de la percepción del riesgo y costo de financiamiento, de 100 puntos básicos entre fines de abril año pasado y la actualidad.

En el caso de Argentina, las deudas soberana y provincial (sin regalías) mantuvieron sus rendimientos, es decir, subieron los spreads en el mismo período, aún con la perspectiva cada vez más clara de falta de acuerdo con los holdouts en 2015 y con vulnerabilidades en el sector externo.

Dependiendo del perfil de riesgo, Argentina aún se presenta como una alternativa de inversión emergente a considerar, aprovechando los altos rendimientos actuales a la espera de una política económica más amistosa con los mercados por parte del nuevo gobierno. Deuda high yield como Galicia 2019 o soberana de mediano plazo se presentan como opciones atractivas.

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Los efectos del superdólar ya son visibles

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