Por el Coronavirus, la exportación de carnes sufrirá el mayor impacto de la economía argentina. Pero no será éste el único sector afectado.
Según un reciente informe de la consultora económica ABECEB, en Argentina el principal efecto directo del Coronavirus se manifestará sobre la cotización y exportación de materias primas agropecuarias, como la soja y sobre todo, las carnes. China representaba el 3,78% de todo el intercambio comercial argentino del 2000 y esa proporción ascendió al 14,29% en 2019, transformándose en el segundo mercado para el país después de Brasil y desplazando a Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea.
El sector de carnes es uno de los más impactados en la economía argentina, especialmente teniendo en cuenta el fuerte aumento de la demanda china observado en 2019 que generó un gran estímulo en la producción de los frigoríficos locales. Aunque sigue mostrando variaciones positivas en términos interanuales debido al gran crecimiento acumulado en 2019, las exportaciones de “carne y sus preparados” cayeron en enero un 33,4% en dólares respecto a su valor de diciembre. Esto se explica por las menores ventas a China, que representan el 75% de las exportaciones.
Con los puertos cerrados por el efecto del Coronavirus, los envíos a China terminaron por paralizarse a nivel mundial. Este escenario ha dejado a los frigoríficos con un elevado stock de mercadería y se analiza la posibilidad de que deban realizar suspensiones en el corto plazo o eliminar las horas extra que venían realizado. Este contexto terminaría por tener un impacto significativo en la producción del sector en 2020, y sobre todo en los márgenes de los exportadores
“Lo importante es el plazo que dure la enfermedad. El efecto del Coronavirus llevará a una desaceleración del crecimiento a nivel mundial, aunque todavía es muy prematuro para evaluar un impacto. Si el problema encuentra una rápida solución y el virus es contenido, es posible que gran parte de la caída del PIB chino del primer trimestre podrís ser compensada con una recuperación rápida. Pero si la epidemia espiraliza y afecta en gran medida a otros países, el efecto será mucho mayor”, afirmó Javier Cao, responsable de inteligencia sectorial de ABECEB.
El impacto del coronavirus se da principalmente en dos vías. Por un lado, en los sectores en los que China es uno de los principales demandantes, el efecto se observa a través de una reducción en los precios de las commodities debido a una menor demanda y a las dificultades para exportar. Por otro, en los que China resulta un importante proveedor mundial, la menor operación de los puertos chinos está llevando a retrasos en la provisión de insumos que obligan a algunos fabricantes a buscar nuevos proveedores.
Entre el primer grupo de productos se destacan los siguientes sectores (además del de carnes mencionado anteriormente):
. Granos: Impacto bastante diverso: entre los valores de cierre de 2019 y los actuales se observa una merma considerable en la cotización de la soja, que se redujo un 5,1%. Los precios del maíz y el trigo, por su parte, perdieron un 3,6%, principalmente por la caída de los últimos días. En todos los casos el impacto es difícil de aislar dado que el mismo es compensado por la tendencia alcista que mostraban muchos de estos commodities previo al impacto del virus. En líneas generales, se observa que esa tendencia positiva se ha frenado y que los precios podrían retroceder en las próximas semanas, lo que terminaría derivando en menores precios para la cosecha 2019/20.
. Petróleo y minería: El impacto se ha observado a través de una baja significativa en el precio de los commodities energéticos y los minerales industriales. La cotización del barril de Brent se desplomó un 23% desde el valor observado el 31 de diciembre, en tanto el precio del mineral de cobre se contrajo un 9% en el mismo período. Los metales preciosos, en cambio, incrementaron su precio por su utilidad como refugio de valor (el precio del oro creció un 8%). En este caso, el impacto de corto plazo sobre Argentina es más limitado debido a que ambos sectores están pendientes mayormente de regulaciones internas, por lo que la actividad ya se encuentra mayormente frenada.
En cuanto a los productos en los que China es un proveedor, el impacto se observa a través de un retraso en los envíos que comienza a complicar la cadena de abastecimiento global. El efecto es especialmente fuerte en segmentos como el textil y en electrodomésticos, algunos segmentos de la metalmecánica, y en menor medida en el rubro químico.
. Siderurgia: Es un caso particular, ya que China es tanto el principal demandante como oferente. En este caso las perspectivas para el sector han empeorado dado que la oferta del país asiático no se ha frenado al ritmo que los sectores demandantes de acero, lo que ha llevado a un aumento de más de 30% en los stocks de acero chino. Esto implicará una presión bajista sobre el precio mientras dure el brote de Coronavirus, con un potencial efecto de mediano plazo si comienzan a liquidarse los stocks. El impacto dependerá de la duración de la epidemia y de la reacción de los fabricantes chinos, que ya comienzan a evaluar mayores recortes de producción. A nivel local, el impacto se dará fundamentalmente vía precios y a través de la menor demanda de exportaciones (aunque la demanda es fundamentalmente interna).
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