Vaca Muerta: Que el “boom” de 2018 se sostenga

Según las conclusiones del reciente informe del Área de Energía y Oil&Gas de la Facultad de Ingeniería de la Universidad Austral, 2018 fue el año de la subida exponencial de gas en Vaca Muerta. En diciembre de 2018, el gas no convencional alcanzó una producción de 50,68 millones de m3 por día, […]

Según las conclusiones del reciente informe del Área de Energía y Oil&Gas de la Facultad de Ingeniería de la Universidad Austral, 2018 fue el año de la subida exponencial de gas en Vaca MuertaEn diciembre de 2018, el gas no convencional alcanzó una producción de 50,68 millones de m3 por día, una mejora del 48% con respecto al año anterior.

La actividad en los horizontes no convencionales continúa mostrando signos de crecimiento en el período de un año -de diciembre de 2017 a 2018-. El impulso se debe, especialmente, al incremento del 242% en el gas natural por el shale.
Así, la producción de gas no convencional alcanzó los 50,68 MMm3/d en diciembre de 2018, lo que representa un 35% del total producido en el país y un incremento de su participación en un 48% con respecto al 2017.
La producción de petróleo no convencional, por otro lado, creció un 66% con respecto al mismo mes de 2017.
Los números están reflejados en el reporte de diciembre de 2018 “Hidrocarburos No Convencionales en Argentina”, dado a conocer hoy por la Universidad Austral. El análisis es elaborado desde la empresa de servicios de consultoría para la industria energética HUB Energía por el director de la Especialización en Gerenciamiento de Gas y Petróleo y Director del Área de Energía y Oil&Gas de la Facultad de Ingeniería, Ing. Roberto Carnicer.

El rector asegura: “hay que diferenciar el déficit público producto de la ineficiencia, de aquellos que significarán el crecimiento de la Argentina. Necesitamos con urgencia enfocarnos en la planificación de nuestro país en el largo plazo, ya que la obsesión por lo coyuntural ha sido la causa de la destrucción constante de cualquier plan y de nuestras riquezas”.

Gas, en números 

  • La producción total país de gas en diciembre fue de 137,44 MMm3/día, presentando un aumento del 12% respecto del mismo mes del 2017.
  • La producción no convencional total país en diciembre fue de 50,68 MMm3/d, presentando un aumento del 48% respecto al mismo mes del 2017 y representa el 35% del total país.
  • La producción de gas natural desde el Shale alcanzó 27.63 MMm3d en diciembre del 2018 representando el 20,11% del total producido en el país y el 35,47% del total de la cuenca neuquina. Y una mejora de 242% respecto a diciembre del 2017.
  • La producción de Tight gas alcanzó los 20,41 MMm3d en diciembre del 2018 representando el 14,85 % del total producido en el país y el 26,20% del total de la cuenca neuquina. Un -23% de diciembre del 2017.
  • La producción de gas no convencional alcanzó los 48,05 MMm3d en diciembre del 2018 representando el 34,96% del total producido en el país y el 61,67% del total de la cuenca neuquina. Y un 44% más que Diciembre del 2017.
  • La cuenca Austral presenta una producción de Tight gas de 2,63 MMm3/d (diciembre 2018) en las áreas de El Cerrito y Campo indio (CGC).

Gas natural – Demanda histórica de 1993 a 2018

  • La estructura de la demanda de gas natural cambia de 1993, donde el Residencial / GNC / Industrial / Centrales representan 33% / 4% / 36% / 28% respectivamente, a ser 27% / 5% / 28% / 40% en 2018. Se observa el importante aumento de participación en demanda para generación eléctrica respecto de la Residencial e Industrial.
  • La demanda ha crecido sostenidamente en 117%.

Gas natural – Oferta, exportación e importación de 1993 a 2018

  • La mayor exportación se concreta en el año 2004 de 22 MMm3/d, a partir de julio de 2007 se reducen a valores insignificantes. A partir de septiembre 2018 comienzan a realizarse exportaciones de importancia alcanzándose un pico de 7,2 MMm3/d en 12/2018.
  • Las importaciones de gas natural comienzan en 2004 desde Bolivia y a partir del 2008 mediante GNL por el barco regasificador ubicado en Bahía Blanca. En 2011 entra en operaciones el segundo barco regasificador en Escobar, en noviembre 2018 se retira el barco de Bahía Blanca.

Producción de petróleo en detalle

  • La producción de petróleo total país en diciembre fue de 80,72 Mil m3/día, presentando un aumento del 3% respecto del mismo mes del 2017.
  • La producción de Petróleo no convencional total país en diciembre fue de 12.97 Mm3/d, presentando un aumento del 66% respecto al mismo mes del 2017 y representa el 16% del total país.
  • La producción de petróleo no convencional en diciembre fue de 12,90 Mil m3/dia, representando el 15,98 % del país y el 36,2% de la cuenca neuquina.
  • La producción de petróleo no convencional creció un 66% entre diciembre 2018 y diciembre 2017.

 

Vaca Muerta. No nos olvidemos del largo plazo

Por Roberto Carnicer*

La finalización del año nos sorprendió con el cambio del secretario de Energía, aunque parecería responder a la exigencia que el nuevo secretario este más alineado con el ministro de Economía Dujovne ante la situación macroeconómica argentina. ¿Afectará este cambio el exitoso desarrollo del gas no convencional en Vaca Muerta? Esperamos que no. No debería haber grandes cambios.

Los objetivos de normalización del sector y de recuperar el liderazgo energético ya están en pleno proceso. Es probable que se desacelere puntualmente, pero, a nuestro entender, se recuperará apenas se cumplan los objetivos económicos.

Las políticas de gas y petróleo del Gobierno consistieron en tratar de normalizar un sector que se encontraba totalmente destruido. Sin embargo, sus errores macroeconómicos ocasionaron un nuevo cimbronazo económico financiero y el mercado no los perdonó. Consecuencia: Tal vez la pendiente para lograr el objetivo se reduzca.

Sin embargo, y a pesar de la crisis económica, 2018 fue el año de la explosión de gas en Vaca Muerta. Actualmente, su producción no convencional representa el 38% de la total del país y el 60% de la Neuquina. Se debe resaltar que el programa de estímulo a la inyección de gas no convencional (2017) fue, principalmente, la causa que generó esta extraordinaria producción de gas NC. Este incentivo no defraudó.

La excelente perfomance realizada por los productores, con mejoras tecnológicas y de eficiencia, permitió un nivel de producción impensado hace un año atrás. Los resultados demuestran al mercado y al Gobierno que Vaca Muerta no es sólo para el autoabastecimiento sino fundamentalmente para la exportación.

Ahora, a los objetivos antes mencionados -normalización y autoabastecimiento-, se suma el desafío del desarrollo intensivo de la exportación energética para que Argentina sea un gran jugador en el ámbito internacional.

1: Hay un importante desafío a definir por las autoridades, concretamente el mantenimiento del incentivo ante el compromiso económico actual de déficit cero. Recordemos que su motivación fue fomentar la producción de gas natural con nuevas tecnologías y reducir importaciones. Por un lado, el Ministerio de Economía necesita limitar el gasto para lograr el déficit cero pero, por el otro, el Gobierno dio su palabra ofreciendo un incentivo para desarrollar la extracción no convencional que finaliza en el 2021. Y el incentivo dio sus frutos.

Hoy hay una postura del gobierno, que lamentablemente se concentra en el corto plazo, afectando decisiones del futuro argentino como política de Estado de ser fuerte exportador de energía. Hay que diferenciar el déficit público producto de la ineficiencia, de aquellos que significarán el crecimiento de la Argentina. Necesitamos con urgencia enfocarnos en la planificación de nuestro país en el largo plazo, la coyuntura ha sido la causa de la destrucción constante. Se tiene el recurso de las instituciones universitarias y de las Academias Nacionales como sector de consulta, además de profesionales con un gran conocimiento del sector. Estamos todos ávidos de sacar adelante al país y ayudar a los gobiernos.

Sugiero como país de análisis y de estudio a Australia, en todos los sectores, desde el manejo de la cosa pública hasta sus políticas de estado en materia de energía. El éxito de este país es haber definido objetivos de largo plazo y la actualización permanente de que país se quiere en el futuro.

Los argentinos tenemos de nuestra parte el ingenio para superar las dificultades, sumémosle el diálogo y el consenso para desatar este nudo georgiano, pero por favor que las coyunturas no nos hagan perder de vista nuevamente el largo plazo.

*Director del Área de Energía y Oil&Gas de la Facultad de Ingeniería de la Universidad Austral.

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