Los números de una economía al rojo vivo

La inflación más alta de los últimos dos años, la industria que cae luego de doce meses de crecimiento y el déficit de cuenta corriente más elevado desde la salida de la Convertibilidad. ¿Hacia dónde va la economía argentina de cara a un año de elecciones presidenciales?  Según el análisis […]

La inflación más alta de los últimos dos años, la industria que cae luego de doce meses de crecimiento y el déficit de cuenta corriente más elevado desde la salida de la Convertibilidad. ¿Hacia dónde va la economía argentina de cara a un año de elecciones presidenciales? 

Según el análisis del nuevo Informe Económico Mensual de Julio elaborado por el Área de Economía del IAE Business School de Universidad Austral, a cargo de Eduardo Luis Fracchia, se destacan, entre otras consideraciones:

PRECIOS  
  • La inflación de junio fue 3,7%, la más alta en 2 años. En el primer semestre del año los precios minoristas acumulan un avance del 16%.
  • La inflación mayorista fue 6,5% y ya acumula en el año 30,3%

ACTIVIDAD ECONÓMICA  

  • La actividad económica retrocedió 0,9% en abril, luego de 13 meses de crecimiento. Respecto del mes de marzo, el retroceso fue de 2,7%, el mayor valor registrado desde abril de 2012.
  • En mayo, la industria registró una caída luego de 12 meses de crecimiento. El retroceso fue de 1,2% de acuerdo con el EMI del INDEC.

SECTOR FISCAL 

  • El déficit fiscal primario se redujo 71% en el mes de mayo. Los recursos fiscales crecieron por encima de los gastos primarios por onceavo mes consecutivo.
  • La recaudación tributaria creció 31,9% en junio impulsadada por las ingresos provenientes del comercio exterior que crecieron 70,7%.

SECTOR EXTERNO  

  • El déficit de cuenta corriente alcanzó los us$ 9.600 millones en el primer trimestre de 2018. En el acumulado de los últimos 4 trimestres el saldo negativo (-us$ 34.000) es el más elevado desde la salida de la Convertibilidad.
  • El Tipo de Cambio Real (TCR) bilateral se depreció 8,2% promedio en junio y alcanzó el mayor nivel desde marzo de 2010.

SECTOR MONETARIO Y FINANCIERO  

  • La tasa de LEBACs de corto plazo cerró en 46,5% de acuerdo con la última licitación del martes pasado. La renovación de los vencimientos fue del 74% del total.
  • Luego de rozar los 30 pesos a fines de junio, el dólar minorista se ubica en 28,30. En los primeros 15 días de julio bajó 4,5%

El informe completo incluye:

  1. Panorama internacional: La economía global navega todavía para alcanzar la velocidad crucero
  2. Panorama interno I: Consideraciones sobre la economía argentina a largo plazo
  3. Panorama interno II: La economía en la recta final del mandato
  4. Precios
  5. Actividad económica
  6. Sector fiscal
  7. Sector externo
  8. Sector monetario y financiero
  9. Anexo: Cuadro Estadístico

*Haga click en los vínculos para acceder a la versión online: IEM – Ampliado / IEM – Reducido / Anexo

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Los números de una economía al rojo vivo

tiempo de lectura: 2 min