El Panorama Político, por Rosendo Fraga

1. Desde Angostura, Macri transmitió a su coalición política y sus funcionarios, qué acciones y gestión deben alinearse detrás del objetivo de obtener su reelección. Por Rosendo Fraga El Jefe de Gabinete (Peña) fue el encargado de transmitir el mensaje. El propio Presidente dio durante la semana pasada pasos en este sentido. […]

1. Desde Angostura, Macri transmitió a su coalición política y sus
funcionarios, qué acciones y gestión deben alinearse detrás del objetivo de
obtener su reelección.

  • Por Rosendo Fraga

El Jefe de Gabinete (Peña) fue el encargado de transmitir el mensaje. El propio Presidente dio durante la semana pasada pasos en este sentido. Reunió al Jefe de Gobierno porteño (Larreta) y los gobernadores de Mendoza (Cornejo) y Jujuy (Morales) para pedirles pongan la misma fecha que la elección presidencial (27 de octubre) para sus comicios
locales. Se acordó postergar la definición hasta marzo para, en ese momento, de acuerdo a las ventajas y desventajas que muestre la situación electoral, adoptar una decisión definitiva. También se reunió con dos gobernadores opositores que tienen buen diálogo con la Casa Rosada: los de Neuquén (Gutiérrez) y Río Negro (Weretilneck). Y decidió viajar a Santa Cruz para tener el primer encuentro a solas con las Gobernadora (Alicia Kirchner) en tres años. En la Casa Rosada hay quienes piensan que para Cambiemos, en el ámbito nacional sería más útil que fuera reelecta, dado que en caso contrario ganaría un radical (Costa) que ha mostrado independencia como senador nacional, respecto a la conducción nacional de Cambiemos. Peña también se reunió con Carrió -el Presidente por ahora sigue sin recibirla- y tras el encuentro su vocero (Ferraro) anunció que ella va a participar en la campaña del oficialismo.

2. Pero el tema que va adquiriendo relevancia política para Macri es el posible adelantamiento de la elección de la provincia de Buenos Aires, que tiene el 40% de los votos efectivos.

La Comisión Bicameral de la legislatura bonaerense a la cual la Gobernadora (Vidal) giró el tema, ya dio dictamen favorable para que sea tratado, dado que requiere una ley provincial. Los argumentos de ella para proponer el adelantamiento son: neutralizar, con un triunfo oficialista en la provincia más importante, el “clima político” adverso al oficialismo, que crearán numerosas derrotas en las 17 elecciones provinciales que tendrán lugar antes y quitar a la eventual candidatura presidencial de Cristina Kirchner, el apoyo electoral activo de los intendentes del conurbano, donde tiene su mayor base electoral. A ello se agrega un dato: un sondeo publicado por el diario Clarín la semana pasada, da cuenta que la imagen positiva de Vidal es 11 puntos más alta que la de Macri y la negativa 9 menos.
El Jefe de Gabinete se opone decididamente a la iniciativa, argumentando que será una señal de que la gobernadora teme el supuesto costo de ir junto con Macri y se debilitará su campaña presidencial. Ya en noviembre Vidal dijo que el adelantamiento lo definiría en marzo, de acuerdo con Macri. En lo inmediato, el Kirchnerismo impulsa las “marchas de antorchas” contra el “tarifazo” que comenzaron la semana pasada en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires y que esta semana se realizan en Rosario y Santa Fe y también el “ruidazo” contra los aumentos de tarifas, que iniciado en la Ciudad de Buenos Aires se va extendiendo al conurbano y algunas ciudades del interior. El viernes 18 de enero, se realizará por cuarta vez consecutiva.

3. Por su parte Cristina Kirchner sigue desarrollando una estrategia silenciosa con un objetivo preciso: bajar su nivel de rechazo que le complica ganar en segunda vuelta.

El sondeo mencionado da cuenta que la imagen negativa de la ex Presidenta alcanza al 62% (la de Macri es 60%). Ella está dando señales de unidad dentro del Peronismo. En La Rioja, para el referéndum que tiene lugar el 27 de enero, para permitir un controvertido tercer mandato del Gobernador (Casas) -alineado con Alternativa Argentina que expresa al PJ anti-K- ella decidió quitar su apoyo a un candidato K que competirá con él (Beder Herrera). En San Juan, el candidato kirchnerista (Gioja) llegó a un acuerdo de unidad con el Gobernador (Uñac) quien en diciembre se reunió públicamente con Roberto Lavagna. Las PASO en este distrito se realizan el 31 de marzo. El Gobernador de Chubut (Arcioni) -que también ha participado de la reunión de Alternativa Argentina- llegó a un acuerdo con el Kirchnerismo local, para una lista de unidad. En los tres distritos Cristina ha elegido la unidad antes que competir, allanando la posible reelección de los gobernadores. Por su parte Alberto Fernández -quien nuevamente es el principal operador político de la ex Presidenta- dijo que podía haber coincidencias entre Cristina y Massa. En la decisiva Provincia de Buenos Aires, la unidad es un tema más complejo y los intendentes del PJ han comenzado a impulsar que la fórmula para la gobernación sea integrada por dos de ellos.

4. En cuanto al tercer espacio, la figura de Roberto Lavagna se va perfilando como posible candidato.

El ex ministro de economía se reunió nuevamente con el Gobernador de Santa Fe (Lifshitz) quien desde el Socialismo lidera el espacio “progresista”. Ratificó el apoyo a su candidatura presidencial. Desde el Peronismo, el presidente del bloque de senadores
nacionales -y uno de los cuatro fundadores de Alternativa Argentina con Massa y los gobernadores de Córdoba (Schiaretti) y Salta (Urtubey)- dijo que “no descartaba” la candidatura presidencial de Lavagna. Desde el Frente Renovador la diputada nacional Graciela Caamaño -esposa del sindicalista Luis Barrionuevo- se sumó al apoyo a Lavagna. Massa -quien recorre el país haciendo campaña en automóvil- dijo que no se oponía a esta candidatura.

Lavagna ya cuenta con apoyo explícito en los dos sectores del sindicalismo peronista (dialoguistas y duros) y en ámbitos empresarios que están tomando distancia de Cambiemos por la recesión. Lavagna es así la mayor amenaza a la polarización, que en forma coincidente tratan de imponer Macri y Cristina.

En los márgenes de la política, la fórmula Olmedo-Yofre amenaza a Cambiemos, que responde “bolsonarizando” su discurso y un economista “libertario” (Espert) también intenta captar voto desencantado del oficialismo. Sobre la izquierda, los partidos trotskistas que integran el FIT, buscan ampliar sus alianzas, lo que puede quitar votos al Kirchnerismo.

5. En conclusión:

a) Macri, desde Angostura, envió a través de Peña tanto a los políticos de su
coalición como a los funcionarios, la decisión de alinear acciones y
gestión detrás de su reelección presidencial.
b) Recién en marzo se resolverá si la provincia de Buenos Aires irá a
elecciones la misma fecha que la presidencial, algo a lo cual se opone la
Casa Rosada.
c) Cristina sigue operando en silencio para bajar su nivel de rechazo en la
opinión pública, da señales de unidad hacia el Peronismo y apoya con
discreción las protestas contra el aumento de tarifas.
d) Lavagna aparece como el candidato con más posibilidades de liderar el
“tercer espacio”, mientras que Cambiemos “bolsonariza” su discurso en
seguridad pública para evitar perder votos por derecha.

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El Panorama Político, por Rosendo Fraga

tiempo de lectura: 5 min