El proceso parlamentario de las modificaciones al sistema de ajuste a las jubilaciones, de la reforma tributaria y el presupuesto de 2018, así como del Consenso Fiscal y su adhesión por la Provincia de Buenos Aires y, finalmente, la alineación de las metas de inflación del BCRA con la política fiscal, reveló que algunas nuevas realidades se avizoran y dan lugar para el optimismo.
Por Alberto Schuster – Director de la Unidad de Competitividad de Abeceb – @mascompetitivos
En el ámbito político, que motoriza el cambio en las reglas del juego, se observó un consenso bastante aceptado sobre la necesidad de dotar a la economía de una mayor competitividad, mediante el fomento de las inversiones y la creación de empleo; no es menor desde lo simbólico el cambio de normativa en la Provincia de Buenos Aires en orden a eliminar privilegios en la política y en ciertos estamentos del mercado laboral.
El impacto social de la lamentable violencia en el Congreso, en oportunidad de la discusión de la reforma previsional, parece haber dejado claro la impractibilidad de ajustes alternativos a la táctica de mejora gradual planteada por el Gobierno.
Éste demostró capacidad de flexibilizar posiciones en orden al logro de acuerdos, mirar con realismo y reconocer los cambios que deben ser hechos, como en el realineamiento entre las metas fiscales y la política del BCRA.
La reforma previsional, que permitió hacer efectivo el Consenso Fiscal, adquiere un impacto socio-económico significativo de cara a las generaciones futuras.
La afluencia de fondos a la Provincia de Buenos Aires por $100.000 millones en dos años, da a sus autoridades la posibilidad de empezar a solucionar un problema clave para el futuro del país en su conjunto: la falta de generación de progreso social y el déficit de capital humano en el conurbano bonaerense. Es allí donde una abrumadora mayoría de los niños se ubica por debajo de la línea de pobreza y los jóvenes registran altísimas tasas de desocupación o de empleo precario. Asimismo es allí donde se registran déficits de vivienda y cloacas, salud, seguridad y se dan los problemas de consumo de sustancias. Los bienes públicos que el Estado redistribuye deberían tener un sesgo en favor de esos segmentos etarios y en favor de su progreso social.
Sin mejora en las condiciones sociales y la consecuente generación de capital humano para el trabajo productivo, es impensable un país competitivo.
Lo que aprobó el Congreso es un conjunto de modificaciones donde los segmentos etarios mayores hacen un esfuerzo para aumentar el gasto en el conurbano y bajar impuestos distorsivos que impiden se genere empleo para los jóvenes que deberían entrar en el mercado de trabajo, lo cual no es otra cosa que una apuesta generacional al futuro.
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