La Reserva Federal de EEUU subió la tasa: ¿y ahora?

Lo único que le faltaba a la Reserva Federal para decidir una nueva suba de sus tasas de política monetaria era un aumento de la inflación. Ello ocurrió, ya que tanto los precios al consumidor como los mayoristas de mayo crecieron cómodamente por encima del 2%, tanto en su versión […]


Lo único que le faltaba a la Reserva Federal para decidir una nueva suba de sus tasas de política monetaria era un aumento de la inflación. Ello ocurrió, ya que tanto los precios al consumidor como los mayoristas de mayo crecieron cómodamente por encima del 2%, tanto en su versión núcleo (core) como en la general.

Por Juan J. Llach

Poco antes, los precios implícitos en los gastos de los consumidores norteamericanos, el dato más seguido por la Reserva Federal, se habían ubicado justo en el límite del 2%. La suba de la tasa fue de un cuarto de punto, hasta 1.75%/2.0%, y quedó abierta la posibilidad de dos aumentos más este año, totalizando en tal caso cuatro aumentos. El Banco Central Europeo, en cambio, anunció que mantendrá sus muy bajas tasas un año más.

¿Habrá llegado,por fin, el escenario negativo generalizado que se pronosticó al ser electo el Presidente Trump, un escenario de altas tasas de interés, fuga de capitales de los países emergentes,dólar fuerte y commodities débiles?

No se advierte todavía esa tendencia, sino por mitades. Cierto, subió el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro de EEUU y el riesgo país de los países emergentes (EMBI). Pero,al mismo tiempo,también se desvalorizó el dólar y subieron los commodities (esto último no ocurrió con la soja, ni con los granos en general, por grandes cosechas globales, aunque no en la Argentina). Un escenario mixto, en línea con lo dicho aquí hace un año y medio,y que muy probablemente llegó para quedarse.

Esto es así porque el aumento de la inflación en los EEUU, que casi seguramente persistirá un tiempo, tiene efectos contradictorios para la suerte de los países emergentes. 

Financieramente complica, porque suben las tasas de interés y se enrarece el financiamiento externo. En la actual coyuntura esta tendencia se acentuará porque la Reserva Federal está, al mismo tiempo,reduciendo su tenencia de bonos del Tesoro -por una cifra cercana a 1,3 billones de dólares- continuando así la ejecución de su “endurecimiento cuantitativo”, puesto en marcha hace dos años para desarmar la gran expansión monetaria iniciada con la crisis del 2008. Esta mayor oferta de bonos del Tesoro agregará presión a la suba de sus rendimientos.

Desde el punto de vista de la economía real, en cambio, el aumento de la inflación en los EEUU tenderá a debilitar al dólar y a fortalecer a las commodities, tal como ha ocurrido desde la elección de Trump. Este debilitamiento del dólar puede postergarse un tiempo con los anuncios de esta semana del Banco Central Europeo de mantener sus muy bajas tasas un año más, en parte contrapesada por el anuncio simultáneo de empezar a retirar sus estímulos monetarios (“endurecimiento cuantitativo”), en paralelo con lo dicho por la Reserva Federal.

Pese al factor atenuante mencionado,y por darse en un contexto también nuevo de proteccionismo que puede reducir el crecimiento de la economía global, que el balance que surge a partir del aumento de la inflación en los EEUU, no es favorable para los países emergentes,especialmente los que dependen en medida importante del financiamiento externo o en moneda extranjera.

 

132 thoughts on “La Reserva Federal de EEUU subió la tasa: ¿y ahora?

  1. Hey there! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with SEO? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good gains. If you know of any please share. Thank you!|

  2. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You definitely know what youre talking about, why waste your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us something informative to read?|

  3. This is very fascinating, You are an overly skilled blogger. I have joined your rss feed and stay up for looking for extra of your great post. Additionally, I’ve shared your site in my social networks|

  4. Simply want to say your article is as astonishing. The clearness for your publish is simply nice and i can suppose you are an expert on this subject. Fine together with your permission let me to seize your RSS feed to stay up to date with impending post. Thanks one million and please carry on the enjoyable work.|

  5. I have been browsing on-line greater than three hours today, yet I by no means discovered any attention-grabbing article like yours. It’s pretty worth enough for me. Personally, if all web owners and bloggers made just right content material as you probably did, the internet will probably be a lot more helpful than ever before.

  6. Simply want to say your article is as surprising. The clarity in your post is simply spectacular and that i could suppose you are a professional on this subject. Well together with your permission let me to clutch your RSS feed to stay up to date with impending post. Thank you a million and please keep up the gratifying work.|

  7. Pretty section of content. I just stumbled upon your web site and in accession capital to assert that I acquire in fact enjoyed account your blog posts. Anyway I’ll be subscribing to your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently fast.|

  8. I’m amazed, I have to admit. Rarely do I come across a blog that’s both educative and engaging, and without a doubt, you’ve hit the nail on the head. The problem is something that not enough men and women are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I found this during my search for something relating to this.|

  9. Do you mind if I quote a few of your articles as long as I provide credit and sources back to your webpage? My website is in the very same niche as yours and my users would certainly benefit from a lot of the information you present here. Please let me know if this alright with you. Cheers!

  10. Excellent post. I was checking constantly this blog and I’m impressed! Extremely useful info particularly the last part 🙂 I care for such info much. I was looking for this particular information for a very long time. Thank you and best of luck.

  11. Hi , I do believe this is an excellent blog. I stumbled upon it on Yahoo , i will come back once again. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and help other people.

  12. Hello, Neat post. There’s a problem together with your website in web explorer, could test thisK IE nonetheless is the market leader and a big component to people will pass over your magnificent writing because of this problem.

  13. I’ve learn a few just right stuff here. Certainly value bookmarking for revisiting. I wonder how so much attempt you set to make one of these great informative website.

  14. Today, I went to the beach front with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  15. naturally like your web-site but you need to check the spelling on quite a few of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling issues and I find it very bothersome to tell the truth nevertheless I will certainly come back again.

  16. There are actually a variety of particulars like that to take into consideration. That may be a great level to convey up. I provide the thoughts above as basic inspiration but clearly there are questions like the one you convey up where an important factor shall be working in honest good faith. I don?t know if greatest practices have emerged around things like that, but I am sure that your job is clearly identified as a good game. Each girls and boys really feel the influence of only a moment’s pleasure, for the remainder of their lives.

  17. Wonderful beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your site, how can i subscribe for a blog web site? The account helped me a acceptable deal. I had been a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered bright clear concept

  18. I was wondering if you ever thought of changing the page layout of your website? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1 or two images. Maybe you could space it out better?

  19. Write more, thats all I have to say. Literally, it seems as though you relied on the video to make your point. You clearly know what youre talking about, why throw away your intelligence on just posting videos to your blog when you could be giving us something enlightening to read?

  20. Hey very nice site!! Man .. Beautiful .. Amazing .. I’ll bookmark your website and take the feeds also…I’m happy to find a lot of useful info here in the post, we need work out more techniques in this regard, thanks for sharing. . . . . .

  21. I’ve been surfing online more than three hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like yours. It is pretty worth enough for me. Personally, if all webmasters and bloggers made good content as you did, the net will be much more useful than ever before.

  22. Good – I should definitely pronounce, impressed with your web site. I had no trouble navigating through all the tabs and related info ended up being truly easy to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it in the least. Reasonably unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, web site theme . a tones way for your customer to communicate. Nice task..

  23. Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your site and in accession capital to assert that I get actually enjoyed account your blog posts. Anyway I’ll be subscribing to your augment and even I achievement you access consistently rapidly.

  24. Just wish to say your article is as astonishing. The clearness in your post is just great and i could assume you are an expert on this subject. Fine with your permission let me to grab your feed to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please carry on the rewarding work.

  25. Throughout the great design of things you’ll secure a B+ for hard work. Exactly where you confused everybody was first in all the facts. You know, people say, the devil is in the details… And that could not be more accurate right here. Having said that, allow me reveal to you precisely what did work. Your authoring is definitely extremely persuasive and this is possibly the reason why I am taking an effort in order to opine. I do not really make it a regular habit of doing that. Next, while I can easily notice a jumps in reason you come up with, I am definitely not confident of exactly how you seem to connect your ideas that help to make the conclusion. For right now I shall yield to your position however trust in the foreseeable future you actually link the facts better.

  26. There are certainly lots of particulars like that to take into consideration. That is a nice point to deliver up. I offer the ideas above as normal inspiration but clearly there are questions like the one you convey up the place an important factor will probably be working in trustworthy good faith. I don?t know if greatest practices have emerged around things like that, but I’m certain that your job is clearly recognized as a fair game. Both girls and boys really feel the affect of only a moment’s pleasure, for the remainder of their lives.

  27. Hi, i believe that i noticed you visited my web site thus i came to “return the prefer”.I am attempting to in finding things to improve my site!I guess its ok to use some of your concepts!!

  28. Have you ever thought about writing an e-book or guest authoring on other blogs? I have a blog based on the same topics you discuss and would love to have you share some stories/information. I know my viewers would appreciate your work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to send me an e-mail.

  29. We’re a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your website provided us with valuable info to work on. You have done a formidable job and our whole community will be thankful to you.

  30. I’ve been exploring for a little for any high quality articles or blog posts on this kind of area . Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon this site. Reading this information So i’m happy to convey that I’ve an incredibly good uncanny feeling I discovered exactly what I needed. I most certainly will make sure to don’t forget this website and give it a look on a constant basis.

  31. Thanks for some other magnificent article. Where else may anybody get that type of info in such an ideal approach of writing? I have a presentation subsequent week, and I am at the search for such information.

  32. Hmm is anyone else experiencing problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to find out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated.

  33. What¦s Happening i’m new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve discovered It positively useful and it has helped me out loads. I am hoping to contribute & aid other users like its helped me. Great job.

  34. I have not checked in here for some time because I thought it was getting boring, but the last several posts are good quality so I guess I’ll add you back to my daily bloglist. You deserve it my friend 🙂

  35. Thanx for the effort, keep up the good work Great work, I am going to start a small Blog Engine course work using your site I hope you enjoy blogging with the popular BlogEngine.net.Thethoughts you express are really awesome. Hope you will right some more posts.

  36. Just about all of whatever you articulate happens to be astonishingly legitimate and that makes me wonder why I hadn’t looked at this in this light before. This piece really did switch the light on for me as far as this subject goes. Nevertheless at this time there is actually 1 issue I am not too comfortable with and whilst I make an effort to reconcile that with the main theme of the point, allow me see exactly what all the rest of your readers have to say.Well done.

  37. I’ve been surfing online greater than 3 hours today, but I by no means discovered any fascinating article like yours. It?¦s pretty worth sufficient for me. In my opinion, if all web owners and bloggers made good content as you probably did, the net might be much more helpful than ever before.

  38. Hi there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found that it’s truly informative. Im going to watch out for brussels. Ill be grateful if you continue this in future. Lots of people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  39. I’d have to examine with you here. Which is not one thing I usually do! I take pleasure in reading a post that may make folks think. Additionally, thanks for permitting me to comment!

  40. I really wanted to construct a simple comment to say thanks to you for all of the fabulous points you are showing on this site. My extended internet lookup has finally been compensated with incredibly good facts to share with my partners. I ‘d state that that many of us readers are really fortunate to be in a superb network with so many awesome individuals with good techniques. I feel pretty fortunate to have discovered your webpages and look forward to so many more fabulous moments reading here. Thanks a lot again for everything.

Deja una respuesta

Tu dirección de correo electrónico no será publicada. Los campos obligatorios están marcados con *

Siguiente nota

Un desequlibrio creciente

Lun Jul 2 , 2018
Los datos de la Balanza de Pago, son sin dudas preocupantes. Cuáles son los factores que están influyendo en este desempeño del sector externo argentino, es decir, aquellos que reflejan las relaciones económicas y financieras entre los residentes del país y el resto del mundo. (*) La cuenta corriente mostró […]

La Reserva Federal de EEUU subió la tasa: ¿y ahora?

tiempo de lectura: 2 min