Lo único que le faltaba a la Reserva Federal para decidir una nueva suba de sus tasas de política monetaria era un aumento de la inflación. Ello ocurrió, ya que tanto los precios al consumidor como los mayoristas de mayo crecieron cómodamente por encima del 2%, tanto en su versión núcleo (core) como en la general.
Por Juan J. Llach
Poco antes, los precios implícitos en los gastos de los consumidores norteamericanos, el dato más seguido por la Reserva Federal, se habían ubicado justo en el límite del 2%. La suba de la tasa fue de un cuarto de punto, hasta 1.75%/2.0%, y quedó abierta la posibilidad de dos aumentos más este año, totalizando en tal caso cuatro aumentos. El Banco Central Europeo, en cambio, anunció que mantendrá sus muy bajas tasas un año más.
¿Habrá llegado,por fin, el escenario negativo generalizado que se pronosticó al ser electo el Presidente Trump, un escenario de altas tasas de interés, fuga de capitales de los países emergentes,dólar fuerte y commodities débiles?
No se advierte todavía esa tendencia, sino por mitades. Cierto, subió el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro de EEUU y el riesgo país de los países emergentes (EMBI). Pero,al mismo tiempo,también se desvalorizó el dólar y subieron los commodities (esto último no ocurrió con la soja, ni con los granos en general, por grandes cosechas globales, aunque no en la Argentina). Un escenario mixto, en línea con lo dicho aquí hace un año y medio,y que muy probablemente llegó para quedarse.
Esto es así porque el aumento de la inflación en los EEUU, que casi seguramente persistirá un tiempo, tiene efectos contradictorios para la suerte de los países emergentes.
Financieramente complica, porque suben las tasas de interés y se enrarece el financiamiento externo. En la actual coyuntura esta tendencia se acentuará porque la Reserva Federal está, al mismo tiempo,reduciendo su tenencia de bonos del Tesoro -por una cifra cercana a 1,3 billones de dólares- continuando así la ejecución de su “endurecimiento cuantitativo”, puesto en marcha hace dos años para desarmar la gran expansión monetaria iniciada con la crisis del 2008. Esta mayor oferta de bonos del Tesoro agregará presión a la suba de sus rendimientos.
Desde el punto de vista de la economía real, en cambio, el aumento de la inflación en los EEUU tenderá a debilitar al dólar y a fortalecer a las commodities, tal como ha ocurrido desde la elección de Trump. Este debilitamiento del dólar puede postergarse un tiempo con los anuncios de esta semana del Banco Central Europeo de mantener sus muy bajas tasas un año más, en parte contrapesada por el anuncio simultáneo de empezar a retirar sus estímulos monetarios (“endurecimiento cuantitativo”), en paralelo con lo dicho por la Reserva Federal.
Pese al factor atenuante mencionado,y por darse en un contexto también nuevo de proteccionismo que puede reducir el crecimiento de la economía global, que el balance que surge a partir del aumento de la inflación en los EEUU, no es favorable para los países emergentes,especialmente los que dependen en medida importante del financiamiento externo o en moneda extranjera.
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