Paradoja: el INDEC sobreestimó la caída de las exportaciones

Prensa Económica 6 años ago 296

En su último informe mensual, la consultora Elypsis de Eduardo Levy Yeyati señala que, a raíz de las inconsistencias en los datos de comercio exterior que publica el Indec, la crisis que atraviesan las exportaciones podría ser más leve a lo observado. Por Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luciano Cohan Según […]

En su último informe mensual, la consultora Elypsis de Eduardo Levy Yeyati señala que, a raíz de las inconsistencias en los datos de comercio exterior que publica el Indec, la crisis que atraviesan las exportaciones podría ser más leve a lo observado.

Por Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luciano Cohan

Según el informe, los datos que reporta el INDEC en su informe del Intercambio Comercial Argentino (ICA) reflejan una situación crítica. Tras cerrar 2014 con una caída de 12.1% a/a, en el primer trimestre de 2015 las exportaciones acumulan una caída de 15.6% frente al mismo período del año pasado. Dentro de ellas, la baja en el rubro Energía es notable (-56.9% a/a), afectada por la baja en el precio del crudo, mientras que las manufacturas de origen industrial (MOI) caen 16.8% a/a, seguidas por las manufacturas de origen agropecuario (MOA) con -10.1% a/a y los productos primarios (-0.4% a/a). Elypsis también señala que el panorama de las importaciones tampoco es alentador, con una caída de 15.9% en el primer trimestre frente al mismo período del 2014.

Sin embargo, la consultora resalta que los datos del ICA están seriamente sospechados de manipulación, en especial en 2013 y primera mitad de 2014. En Elypsis llegan a esta conclusión al comparar los datos de esta fuente con los de las “Bases Usuarias”, también elaboradas por el INDEC a partir de información de la Aduana. Como señala el Economista Jefe de la consultora, Luciano Cohan, “la diferencia histórica de ambas series es mínima, por ejemplo USD 0.7mm en 2012”. Pero, agrega Cohan, “a partir de 2013 la diferencia se vuelve muy importante a favor del ICA”. Específicamente, en 2013 el ICA reportó exportaciones USD 5.6mm mayores que las Bases Usuarias y en 2014 la diferencia fue de USD 5.0mm. La consultora también destaca que las sobreestimaciones más importantes, en ambos años, se encuentran en los rubros MOA y MOI, donde se concentra más del 75% de la diferencia total.

Por lo tanto, concluye Elypsis, la crisis que refleja el ICA puede deberse, paradójicamente, a la fuerte sobreestimación de los datos a comienzos de 2014. Estimaciones preliminares para el primer trimestre de 2015 a partir de las Bases Usuarias muestran datos algo más alentadores en las exportaciones: mientras que para el ICA mostraban una caída de 15.6% a/a, la estimación alternativa apunta a una caída menor: 6.1% a/a.

Prensa Económica

https://www.prensaeconomica.com.ar

296 thoughts on “Paradoja: el INDEC sobreestimó la caída de las exportaciones”

  82. In January pattern year, speck mpupljd mow down ill. It’s okay, just a mild viagra cost, which passed in five days. But the temperature in the twinkling of an eye returned past the intent of the month: the thermometer showed 36. The old bean was urgently hospitalized with fever and convulsions. A occasional hours later, three-year-old Yegor stopped breathing – he fell into a coma. With the inform appropriate of a ventilator and a tracheostomy, the doctors resumed the charge of the lungs, but oxygen starvation struck the brain. The kid has out of the window the total that he managed to learn in three years. The diagnosis is posthypoxic encyphalopathy.

    Responder

  105. Our doctor scheme that Dad was perhaps uniform advance than Mom in this situation. Stricter, more insistent, when one pleases not mournfulness at intervals again when you want to perform miserable cialis generic. Well, I wanted to send my missus a break.
    I spent a little in excess of a month in the all-out custody part and two and a half months in the bone marrow move unit. There I became a provider for my son. I’m glad I was adept to cure him. I was the only human beings in both departments, but my parents were already there. That is, a handcuff in the repulse with a lady is no longer a rarity.

    Responder

  152. Mikhailik was born trim, grew up zingy and cheerful, developed quite quick, went to kindergarten. Loved and still loves to demeanour enjoyment functioning games, viagra dreams of a remote-controlled propeller, which can fly at home in the field.

    Responder

  177. Having read this I believed it was rather enlightening. I appreciate you spending some time and effort to put this article together. I once again find myself spending a significant amount of time both reading and leaving comments. But so what, it was still worth it!

    Responder

  187. I truly love your site.. Great colors & theme. Did you make this amazing site yourself? Please reply back as I’m planning to create my very own site and would like to learn where you got this from or what the theme is named. Many thanks!

    Responder

  189. After I originally left a comment I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now whenever a comment is added I recieve 4 emails with the exact same comment. There has to be a means you are able to remove me from that service? Thanks!

    Responder

  190. Can I simply say what a comfort to uncover someone that truly knows what they are talking about on the net. You certainly understand how to bring an issue to light and make it important. More and more people really need to check this out and understand this side of your story. I was surprised that you aren’t more popular because you certainly possess the gift.

    Responder

  194. I’m amazed, I must say. Seldom do I encounter a blog that’s equally educative and engaging, and without a doubt, you have hit the nail on the head. The issue is something which too few people are speaking intelligently about. Now i’m very happy I found this during my hunt for something regarding this.

    Responder

  198. Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Many thanks, However I am experiencing troubles with your RSS. I don’t know the reason why I am unable to join it. Is there anybody having similar RSS problems? Anyone who knows the answer will you kindly respond? Thanks!!

    Responder

  201. I was extremely pleased to find this site. I need to to thank you for ones time for this fantastic read!! I definitely loved every bit of it and i also have you saved as a favorite to check out new things in your blog.

    Responder

  202. I was excited to find this site. I need to to thank you for your time due to this fantastic read!! I definitely appreciated every bit of it and I have you book marked to look at new stuff in your website.

    Responder

  205. Oh my goodness! Incredible article dude! Thank you so much, However I am having problems with your RSS. I don’t understand the reason why I cannot join it. Is there anybody having the same RSS problems? Anybody who knows the answer can you kindly respond? Thanks!!

    Responder

  206. I seriously love your site.. Pleasant colors & theme. Did you make this site yourself? Please reply back as I’m hoping to create my own website and want to learn where you got this from or exactly what the theme is named. Cheers!

    Responder

  207. Hello there! This article could not be written any better! Going through this article reminds me of my previous roommate! He continually kept talking about this. I most certainly will send this post to him. Pretty sure he will have a very good read. Many thanks for sharing!

    Responder

  213. Right here is the perfect site for anyone who would like to understand this topic. You know so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I actually will need to…HaHa). You certainly put a brand new spin on a topic that’s been written about for many years. Great stuff, just excellent!

    Responder

  214. Howdy, I do believe your blog might be having internet browser compatibility problems. Whenever I look at your website in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping issues. I simply wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other than that, great blog!

    Responder

  215. I have to thank you for the efforts you have put in penning this website. I’m hoping to check out the same high-grade blog posts from you later on as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has motivated me to get my own, personal blog now 😉

    Responder

  224. I blog frequently and I really thank you for your information. This article has really peaked my interest. I am going to take a note of your blog and keep checking for new details about once a week. I opted in for your Feed too.

    Responder

  226. naturally like your web-site however you need to take a look at the spelling on several of your posts. A number of them are rife with spelling issues and I find it very bothersome to tell the truth however I¦ll definitely come back again.

    Responder

  227. May I simply just say what a relief to find someone who genuinely knows what they’re discussing online. You definitely realize how to bring a problem to light and make it important. A lot more people should read this and understand this side of your story. I was surprised you’re not more popular because you certainly have the gift.

    Responder

  242. Casio is one of our most popular brands in Japan, and its dynamic, youthful, modern and diverse image is ingrained in everyone’s mind. The EDIFICE series of men’s watches is Casio’s new pointed-headed men’s watch line, which has been loved by high-fashioned men of all walks of life.The fourth window for three hours of the watch is used to display information. 6am location is marked with 300m / 1000ft and is automatic. 300m / 1000ft means that the water level of the watch can reach 300 meters, which is 1000 feet. Seal of pressure gauge at depth is not damaged by water; ‘Automatic’ means the purpose of the watch is to provide personal power.

    Responder

  290. Opposition to keeping chastity means that when your daughter wants to engage with other people, she will engage with others, and whoever she wants to engage with. This is how your wife is sexually free?

    Responder

  293. Finally, when you are comparing different models of outdoor projectors, pay close attention to the lens. This is the part of the projector that produces the images to project onto the screen. A quality lens will provide crisp, clear pictures with great resolution. Pay attention to the quality of the lens when you are comparing different models.

    Responder

  294. Opposition to keeping chastity means that when your daughter wants to engage with other people, she will engage with others, and whoever she wants to engage with. This is how your wife is sexually free? Click:Forced rape.

    Responder

  296. Like in January – Some on line casino offers their bonus in the initial month of the year. For a certified gambling guy, none is more satisfying than taking part in poker. Discovering this kind of factor is absolutely simple.

    Responder

Deja una respuesta

Tu dirección de correo electrónico no será publicada. Los campos obligatorios están marcados con *

Siguiente nota

Se presentó la Red de Buenas Prácticas Agrícolas (BPA)

Mié May 6 , 2015
Treinta entidades públicas y privadas vinculadas a la agroindustria decidieron integrar la primer Red de Buenas Prácticas Agrícolas del país. Con la presencia de miembros de las 30 instituciones que la integran, se presentó la Red de Buenas Prácticas Agrícolas. Esta Red es el resultado de un proceso de diálogo […]

Quizás quieras leer

Contacto

Teléfono: 4342-0151 y 4312-7414

Mails:

Info: info@prensaeconomica.com.ar
Publicidad: publicidad@prensaeconomica.com.ar

Archivos

Nuestra nueva dirección

Av. Pte. Julio A.Roca 546 piso 3 oficina 3.

Actualidad

Paradoja: el INDEC sobreestimó la caída de las exportaciones

tiempo de lectura: 2 min
Actualidad Se presentó la Red de Buenas Prácticas Agrícola…
Actualidad Lo nuevo: entrenar sin rutina