Paradoja: el INDEC sobreestimó la caída de las exportaciones

En su último informe mensual, la consultora Elypsis de Eduardo Levy Yeyati señala que, a raíz de las inconsistencias en los datos de comercio exterior que publica el Indec, la crisis que atraviesan las exportaciones podría ser más leve a lo observado. Por Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luciano Cohan Según […]

En su último informe mensual, la consultora Elypsis de Eduardo Levy Yeyati señala que, a raíz de las inconsistencias en los datos de comercio exterior que publica el Indec, la crisis que atraviesan las exportaciones podría ser más leve a lo observado.

Por Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luciano Cohan

Según el informe, los datos que reporta el INDEC en su informe del Intercambio Comercial Argentino (ICA) reflejan una situación crítica. Tras cerrar 2014 con una caída de 12.1% a/a, en el primer trimestre de 2015 las exportaciones acumulan una caída de 15.6% frente al mismo período del año pasado. Dentro de ellas, la baja en el rubro Energía es notable (-56.9% a/a), afectada por la baja en el precio del crudo, mientras que las manufacturas de origen industrial (MOI) caen 16.8% a/a, seguidas por las manufacturas de origen agropecuario (MOA) con -10.1% a/a y los productos primarios (-0.4% a/a). Elypsis también señala que el panorama de las importaciones tampoco es alentador, con una caída de 15.9% en el primer trimestre frente al mismo período del 2014.

Sin embargo, la consultora resalta que los datos del ICA están seriamente sospechados de manipulación, en especial en 2013 y primera mitad de 2014. En Elypsis llegan a esta conclusión al comparar los datos de esta fuente con los de las “Bases Usuarias”, también elaboradas por el INDEC a partir de información de la Aduana. Como señala el Economista Jefe de la consultora, Luciano Cohan, “la diferencia histórica de ambas series es mínima, por ejemplo USD 0.7mm en 2012”. Pero, agrega Cohan, “a partir de 2013 la diferencia se vuelve muy importante a favor del ICA”. Específicamente, en 2013 el ICA reportó exportaciones USD 5.6mm mayores que las Bases Usuarias y en 2014 la diferencia fue de USD 5.0mm. La consultora también destaca que las sobreestimaciones más importantes, en ambos años, se encuentran en los rubros MOA y MOI, donde se concentra más del 75% de la diferencia total.

Por lo tanto, concluye Elypsis, la crisis que refleja el ICA puede deberse, paradójicamente, a la fuerte sobreestimación de los datos a comienzos de 2014. Estimaciones preliminares para el primer trimestre de 2015 a partir de las Bases Usuarias muestran datos algo más alentadores en las exportaciones: mientras que para el ICA mostraban una caída de 15.6% a/a, la estimación alternativa apunta a una caída menor: 6.1% a/a.

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Paradoja: el INDEC sobreestimó la caída de las exportaciones

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