Nuestro país podría ser uno de los más afectados por el desplome de WallStreet y la suba de tasas. Dólar, inflación y tasas de largo plazo. Una semana clave en la economía.
Fue la peor caída en puntos en un solo día en toda la historia de Wall Street. El índice Dow Jones cayó 1.175 unidades, luego de meses de bonanza y arrastró consigo a todas las bolsas del mundo, desde Tokio a Buenos Aires.
Los inversores hicieron sentir su temor al doble aumento: el de la inflación y de los tipos de interés. Y Argentina, que se subió al barco del mundo recientemente, también sintió las turbulencias.
Fin de la luna de miel?
Desde la elección de Donald Trump el mercado tocó sus máximos históricos en EE UU (hasta el momento, aún acumula 23,8% de crecimiento). Pero tanto inversores como analistas sabían que habría un eventual freno que moderaría los crecimientos.
La excusa: el pasado viernes se publicó un informe mensual sobre el empleo. ¿Catastrófico?. De ninguna manera: el documento daba cuenta de un panorama alentador para la economía, mostrando un aumento significativo de los salarios, el mejor en 8 años.
Entonces, ¿qué fue lo que vieron los operadores de Wall Street?. La sombra de la Inflación incontrolable. Algo con lo que no están familiarizados los norteamericanos (y un tema en el que podríamos dar cátedra, lamentablemente). Esta visión de medio vaso vacío, tuvo un efecto devastador en los mercados, y disparó el temor a todo el mundo.
Como un dominó
El terror a un panorama inflacionario fue tal, que impulsó la expectativa de que aumentarán los tipos de interés a un ritmo más rápido del previsto. De esta manera se elevó el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense, por lo que se liquidaron gran número de acciones buscando una mejor inversión.
De hecho, según estima la agencia Reuters, globalmente las pérdidas de los mercados financieros representaron u$s 4.000 millones en sólo un día.
Al fuego, nafta…
Como si los ánimos no estuvieran alterados, los informes prevén que el Tesoro de los Estados Unidos incremente “significativamente” sus emisiones de deuda este año, para compensar las menores compras de la Fed.
Es clave ver la reacción de los mercados si el Tesoro cumple con la venta programada de u$s 66.000 millones en deuda esta semana. Día por día, el martes se desprenderá de u$s 26.000 millones en notas a tres años; el miércoles, de u$s 24.000 millones en bonos a 10 años; y el jueves, venderá u$s 16.000 millones en bonos a 30 años. Una semana para el infarto…
Pero los ojos también están puestos sobre la Fed, con suposiciones de un aumento de las tasas a un ritmo más rápido. Los temores y rumores han cundido en el mercado desde que el organismo anticipó un alza de las tasas de interés de referencia, medida que si bien presiona a la baja la inflación, encarece el costo del dinero.
La Inflación
La inflación norteamericana cerró el año pasado en “apenas” 2,1%, y la Fed espera acordar tres subidas de las tasas durante este año para mantenerla en torno al 2%.
Política doméstica de la Fed
Pero este anuncio se hizo en plena transición de la presidencia de la Fed, que ostentaba desde 2014, Janet Yellen y que dejó formalmente el pasado sábado en manos de Jerome Powell, designado por el mandatario Donald Trump. La llegada como presidente de la Reserva Federal (FED) de Powell, abogado de Wall Street y mano derecha del presidente, fue otra señal de alerta. Powell es visto como un duro en materia de política monetaria, a diferencia de su antecesora. Así corrió fuerte el pronóstico de que sean cuatro las alzas en lugar de tres.
La incertidumbre puede alargarse, ya que la próxima reunión de política monetaria, la primera que encabezará Powell, está prevista recién para el 20 y 21 de marzo.
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