Política monetaria del Central, inflación y dólar

Con la presentación que hizo Sturzenegger ayer por la tarde, en la que hizo hincapié sobre las mejores condiciones que tiene la Argentina en cuanto a la inflación de enero del 2017, quedó claro que existe la posibilidad concreta de una reducción adicional en la tasa de referencia. Por Alejandro […]

Con la presentación que hizo Sturzenegger ayer por la tarde, en la que hizo hincapié sobre las mejores condiciones que tiene la Argentina en cuanto a la inflación de enero del 2017, quedó claro que existe la posibilidad concreta de una reducción adicional en la tasa de referencia.
Alejandro Bianchi

Por Alejandro Bianchi, gerente de inversiones de InvertirOnline.com

En la presentación de Sturzenegger se mostró como la inflación núcleo, la variable principal que sigue el Banco Central, a principios de 2018 se ubica en 18.5 contra el 23.1 de enero 2017, lo cual genera para la autoridad monetaria una tasa real positiva de 10.5%, que puede resultar demasiado elevada y sería el motivo por el cual habría algún  eventual recorte adicional en la tasa.

Impacto en el mercado de valores en caso de un nuevo recorte, o no, de las tasas

Si el recorte se convalida, seguramente los bonos ajustados con CER serán los más beneficiados, debido a que el mercado podría juzgar que el Central está privilegiando crecimiento económico por sobre el control de la inflación. Ante este panorama, es de esperar que haya algunos meses más de inflación alta por delante y eso podría beneficiar a estos bonos.

Qué deberán tener en cuenta inversionistas y ahorristas en los próximos días

El inversionista o el ahorrista deberá prestar atención a la variable clave que será el dólar. Ayer el Tesoro adjudicó 1.500 USD millones y eso mantiene a raya todavía el tipo de cambio. Ahora bien, de acuerdo al anuncio sobre la reducción del financiamiento en dólares en este 2018, la mayor expectativa de inflación podría tener algún impacto adicional en el tipo de cambio. En este caso, para cubrirse de los efectos adversos, lo más recomendable es mantener una parte del portafolio en bonos en dólares, que a su vez pueden beneficiarse de una reducción de 100 puntos básicos adicionales en el riesgo país durante el año.

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Política monetaria del Central, inflación y dólar

tiempo de lectura: 1 min