El mercado está en modo corrección debido a la reacción exagerada a los titulares sobre los cambios en la política de biocombustibles de USA de la semana pasada.
Por Celina Mesquida, RJO´Brien, en Agro Educación.com
Finalmente fueron solo rumores, que la Casa Blanca tuvo que desmentir, bastaron para hacer sacudir los precios de una manera inesperada.
Por otro lado, si bien las ideas de mayores producciones en Sudamérica no son noticias nuevas, parece que las entidades que publican estos números están jugando una carrera con los valores de producción de soja de Brasil.
Con cerca del 50% de la producción cosechada en Brasil, los privados salen a adivinar cualquier número entre 105-112 mill de t. Mientras que la única zona que preocupa por la intensidad de lluvias es Rio Grande do Sul donde se podría retrasar la cosecha.
La situación en Argentina parece decente con algunas secciones de Santa Fe, Entre Ríos y Corrientes con pronóstico de lluvias excesivas. Algunas zonas al oeste de La Pampa continúan esperando precipitaciones, pero en general parece que Argentina estaría en condiciones de producir unos 55 mill de t de soja y unas 37 mill de t de maíz. Esta último comenzó a cosecharse con rendimientos sorpresivamente mayores a los esperados.
Es así como ambos países van camino a reunir una buena cantidad de producto. La logística continúa siendo la incógnita, Brasil con sus caminos anegados y excesivas colas para llegar a los puertos, y Argentina con la misma suerte pero con menos porcentaje cosechado aún. Estos serán puntos a evaluar en los próximos días y gran parte del mercado estar mirando esta situación.
El reporte del USDA de marzo se dará a conocer este jueves y se esperan muy pocos cambios en las hojas de balance para soja y maíz de USA, tal vez algún aumento en el uso de maíz para etanol que en consecuencia llevaría a recortar algo los stocks finales. Pero en realidad, la estrella la quieren empujar al Sur y salir con un número de producciones que haga estallar o adormecer las pantallas.
Es así como todo esto se empalma con el comienzo de la siembra en USA, con una relación de precios increíblemente favorable a la soja, pero con una primavera temprana que hará poner a más de un farmer nervioso por no salir corriendo a sembrar maíz.
No siempre los precios se comportan de igual manera, acordate que estamos partiendo de precios bastante más altos que misma fecha a esta altura del año, ante este escenario, crees que los precios tienen espacio para solo subir?
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