Un año turbulento: Claves del 2016

Las sorpresas -muchas- vinieron esta vez del primer mundo. En un planeta inestable, las victorias anti globalización de Trump y del Brexit parecen ser sólo las primeras. La suba del oro y el masivo desempleo juvenil europeo (Italia al tope) también estuvieron en la lista, así como la preocupante calma […]

Las sorpresas -muchas- vinieron esta vez del primer mundo. En un planeta inestable, las victorias anti globalización de Trump y del Brexit parecen ser sólo las primeras. La suba del oro y el masivo desempleo juvenil europeo (Italia al tope) también estuvieron en la lista, así como la preocupante calma china.

PETRÓLEO DESCONTROLADO

A comienzos de 2016, el precio del crudo Brent se derrumbó a menos de US$ 30 por barril, el más bajo en 13 años. Las sirenas de alarma sonaron y se comenzó a mirar de reojo las reservas. El “lifting” que realizó Obama sobre las sanciones en contra de Irán significaron, para el productor petrolero, el poder comprar crudo iraní y exportarlo a mercados que se suplían con el shale oil norteamericano y de países de la OPEP. Los precios se fueron recuperando a medida que avanzó el año, cuando hubo signos de disminución en las expectativas sobre el stock exportable de los países de la OPEP. Pero a fin de año, la OPEP y algunos países no miembros, llegaron a un acuerdo para bajar el suministro, logrando que el crudo alcanzara el precio que tenía 17 meses atrás: US$ 57, con lo que el aumento interanual fue del 54%.

TODO LO QUE BRILLA ES ORO

Sin dudas, el año fue tumultuoso en lo político. El inesperado triunfo del Brexit y de Donald Trump, aceleraron la demanda de oro, como en los más turbulentos años de la historia. El oro siempre se ha demostrado como un lugar seguro cuando hay tormentas, pero además el apetito por el dorado metal se acentuó por las bajas tasas de interés que presentaba. Los inversores no obtuvieron casi nada de otras acciones que pagaban intereses y por eso también se refugiaron en oro. El precioso metal perdió un poco de su brillo, luego de que los mercados lograran digerir el triunfo de Donald Trump y el proyecto de gran gobierno “gastador” y con tasas en aumento. Cuando las aguas se calmaron, todo volvió a la normalidad: oro apenas arriba y dólar más reforzado.

BREXIT: LIBRA DÉBIL Y LLUVIA DE INVERSIONES

La Libra se derrumbó luego del referéndum sobre la permanencia en la UE, alcanzando caídas históricas que no se veían por lo menos desde hace 31 años. La subida en la tasa de interés de EEUU en diciembre pasado hizo que el dólar ganará mucho terreno sobre la esterlina. De hecho la libra está un 17% por debajo del dólar desde la elección que desemboco en el Brexit. Comparativamente, el Índice FTSE 100 alcanzó records, mucho debido a la debilidad de la libra. Muchas de las firmas registradas reportan en dólares por lo que sus ganancias fluctúan de acuerdo al tipo de cambio. La débil libra también animó a muchos inversores extranjeros a tomar todo tipo de acciones, bienes y propiedades en Gran Bretaña.

EEUU: DOW Y DONALD, MÁS QUE AMOR

El mercado de acciones de EEUU alcanzó nuevos récords alcistas en 2016, rozando los 20.000 puntos. Las preocupaciones sobre el presidente electo Donald Trump fueron más bien declamatorias, para un Wall Street que espera con avidez grandes planes y gastos en infraestructura y una desregulación de la economía norteamericana que la impulsará en el corto plazo. Desde la elección, los bancos han estado entre los mayores compradores de bonos de EEUU, ayudados por los intereses alcistas y las expectativas sobre las desregulaciones económicas de Trump.

EL FRENO CHINO

El año comenzó con nuevas preocupaciones acerca de la desaceleración china, enviando ondas de choque a los mercados globales. Las expectativas de crecimiento del PBI chino, según los economistas mundiales, eran menores del  7% anual y una caída mayor para 2017. Un marcado contraste si lo comparamos con la expansión del  14% experimentada una década atrás. La desaceleración en el crecimiento era muy esperada, mientras la economía china crecía a dos dígitos, preocupando al viejo primer mundo. Con el crecimiento atascado, Beijing se encaminó a brindar estímulos a la deuda china. El gobierno comunista, bajando los precios de la propiedad y de los préstamos bancarios, dió señales de alarma para algunos economistas, sobre todo por el posible aumento del monto de la deuda china.

EL PESO BAJO LA BOTA DE TRUMP

El peso mexicano tuvo el dudoso honor de actuar como barómetro en las chances de victoria de Trump en la campaña presidencial. Después que el republicano amenazó  con el muro EEUU-México y borrar o salir de tratados comerciales internacionales, el peso estuvo permanentemente bajo presión y fue aplastado permanentemente por el dólar, más aún luego del triunfo del excéntrico Trump. Más recientemente, el peso se mantuvo expectante mientras Trump parecía bajar los decibeles de su retórica anti-mexicana pero los analistas advierten que el peso podría afrontar mayor volatilidad una vez que el presidente asuma.

BANCOS NERVIOSOS EN JAPÓN

Los bajos intereses en los préstamos, hicieron que los bancos la tuvieran difícil para hacer una diferencia entre las tasas pagadas en ahorros y las tasas activas de préstamos. Esto quedó expuesto, por ejemplo, en Japón en 2016. Las acciones  de los bancos japoneses estuvieron por años bajo presión por la emisión de moneda del Banco Central, pero cayeron a principios de  2016, cuando el Banco de Japón les impuso su tasa de interés negativa a los demás bancos para animarlos a volcarse a los negocios. En septiembre, el Banco Central tuvo que salir a calmar la agresiva táctica de estímulo y repartió una ayuda en todo el sector bursátil, con la esperanza de mejorar sus números rojos.

INFLACIÓN INMÓVIL

El Banco Central Europeo tomó medidas sin precedentes para animar el anémico crecimiento del bloque y levantar un poco la ínfima inflación. A pesar de las súper-bajas tasas de interés y un vasto programa de emisión, la inflación se mantuvo muy lejos de las expectativas del BCE: “menor o cerca del 2%”. Los economistas también apuntan a la inflación “core” que excluye ítems tan volátiles como energía, y que se estancó en 0.8% desde julio, sugiriendo que existe una pequeña y subyacente presión en los precios. El BCE anunció recientemente que frenaría el monto de los estímulos, pero su presidente, Mario Draghi, insistió que el banco central se encuentra preparado para reforzar cualquier ayuda si los planes para elevar la inflación fallan.

ITALIA EN BAJA Y FRANCIA EN PELIGRO

La derrota aplastante del primer ministro italiano Matteo Renzi en un referéndum sobre la reforma constitucional en diciembre,  cayó en medio de un estancamiento histórico en los estándares de vida de los italianos. En la actualidad Italia tiene una de las tasas de desempleo más altas de la UE (11.6%). La situación entre los menores de 25 es peor aún, con un desempleo de más del 36%, 7% más que 5 años atrás. Francia también experimentó un aumento en el desempleo juvenil en años recientes (25%), un punto que, es esperable, influya en la decisión de los votantes en la elección presidencial de 2017, donde la ultra derecha de Marie Le Pen tiene por primera vez expectativas.

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