10 Predicciones Económicas en 2017

Según AT Kearney estos serán los 10 eventos que impactarán a la economía global en 2017. La consultora mundial A.T. Kearney Global Business Policy Council está presente en 40 países y trabaja con las principales empresas multinacionales del mundo. Por eso identifica eventos en un amplio rango de dimensiones, demográficas, […]

Según AT Kearney estos serán los 10 eventos que impactarán a la economía global en 2017.

La consultora mundial A.T. Kearney Global Business Policy Council está presente en 40 países y trabaja con las principales empresas multinacionales del mundo. Por eso identifica eventos en un amplio rango de dimensiones, demográficas, recursos, tecnología, economía, medioambiente, geopolítica y gobernancia. Estas son sus predicciones para el 2017.

 

1El primer Ciberataque Incapacitante será lanzado sobre infraestructura crítica en alguna de las grandes economías.

2- El Brexit y la elección de Donald Trump inspirarán más victorias de populistas y fascistas europeos en las boletas electorales.

3- Un mundo tripolar será cimentado conforme crezcan las tensiones entre Estados Unidos, Rusia y China.

4- La “Islandización” continuará fragmentando la economía global.

5- Los mercados fronterizos retrocederán a su frontera.

6- La coordinación de políticas globales contra el cambio climático quedará sola en la lucha.

7- La pandemia del Zika será global.

8- La realidad virtual proliferará a una tasa sin precedente y no sólo para los amantes del juego.

9- Los precios globales del petróleo permanecerán debajo de los 60 dólares por barril.

10- La nueva carrera espacial se acelerará.

LAS 10 PREDICCIONES

1- Hackeo

El ‘Primer Ciberataque Incapacitante’ será lanzado sobre infraestructura crítica en alguna de las grandes economías.

La rápida proliferación del Internet de las Cosas (IoT, por sus siglas en inglés), permeará casi cada aspecto del mundo moderno. Un mundo más conectado que nunca, también lo hace más vulnerable a ciberataques. De 3.800 millones de dispositivos contectados en 2014, se llegó a 6.400 dispositivos en 2016 y a 20.800 dispositivos en 2020.

El blanco de estos ataques será alguna de las economías globalmente conectadas con infraestructura de internet como Alemania, Japón, Corea del Sur, Estados Unidos o países del Consejo de Cooperación del Golfo. El atacante podría tener su sede en Rusia, China, Irán o Corea del Norte y direccionaría su ataque hacia las fuentes de energía, lo que podría disrrumpir la normal operación de los negocios o en los centros financieros impactar los sistemas de pagos internacionales y aunque fuera por breves momentos, causarán daños económicos de miles de millones de dólares, además de desestabilizar el ambiente empresarial y reducir el crecimiento económico.

2- BREXIT

El Brexit y la elección de Donald Trump inspirarán más victorias electorales de populistas y FASCISTAS europeos 

En 2017 partidos de derecha populistas, nacionalistas, fascistas y xenofóbicos, continuarán ganando apoyo popular y asientos en los parlamentos nacionales. La economía europea continuará su trayectoria de desaceleración y la crisis migratoria persistirá.

3- EE.UU, RUSIA Y CHINA

Un mundo tripolar será cimentado conforme crezcan las tensiones entre Estados Unidos, Rusia y China

Vivimos en un nuevo mundo tripolar, donde Estados Unidos, China y Rusia compiten por la influencia geopolítica en regiones clave del mundo, tal como lo demuestra dramáticamente Siria en la actualidad.

Aunque Donald Trump ha hablado de su simpatía por Putin, el presidente ruso busca concesiones incompatibles con los intereses clave de Estados Unidos y las tensiones entre los dos países regresarán. Tensiones también podrían surgir entre China y Rusia conforme las esferas de influencia de estas dos grandes potencias se incrementen.

El mundo tripolar acelerará el desarrollo de bloques separados de alianzas geopolíticas y las correspondientes asociaciones económicas. El resultado será un ambiente geopolítico mucho más volátil.

4- DÓLAR

La ‘Islandización’ está emergiendo conforme la globalización se ha estancado desde la crisis financiera global con el comercio mundial relativamente débil como porcentaje de la economía global y de las inversiones transfronterizas debajo de sus picos de antes de la crisis.

En 2017 esta antiglobalización que se ha nombrado ‘Islandización” se intensificará. El FMI proyecta que el crecimiento global será alrededor del 3.4% en 2017, pero este estimado está sujeto a riesgos a la baja por el creciente proteccionismo. La desigualdad económica permanecerá elevada en mercados clave generando una mayor frustración popular con un sistema globalizado que parece sólo beneficiar a la élite“, de acuerdo con el documento.

5- Mercados retroceden a su frontera

Los mercados fronterizos han estado en el borde de los flujos de la economía global transfronteriza. Son economías en desarrollo que tienen menor ingreso per cápita, menores ambientes regulatorios que las economías avanzadas y una integración más débil con el sistema financiero global que los mercados emergentes.

Éstos mercados han significado sólo 5.0 % de las exportaciones mundiales y 5.5 % de la inversión extranjera directa global. Los mercados fronterizos han sido atractivos a los inversionistas buscando rendimientos ante las tasas en mínimos en la mayoría de los mercados de economías desarrolladas; sin embargo, se estima retrocederán a su frontera en 2017.

Algunos comenzarán a sufrir el peso de fuertes deudas y su opacidad llevará a los inversionistas financieros una vez más a preferir los ambientes de inversión relativamente más líquidos y transparentes de los mercados emergentes.

6- Políticas globales contra el cambio climático MERMARÁN

El ACUERDO DE PARÍS recortarÍA las emisiones co2 A 32% en 2030 respecto a 2005. SIN EMBARGO DARÍA MARCHA ATRÁS SI TRUMP LO ABANDONA.

Aunque en la recta final del 2016 fueron tomadas diversas acciones internacionales en contra del cambio climático, sobresaliendo el Acuerdo de París que entró en vigor el 4 de noviembre luego de que 55 países que representan al menos el 55 % de las emisiones globales de carbono ratificaron su compromiso, incluyendo a China y a Estados Unidos, sin embargo, este progreso se ha cuestionado con la victoria de Donald Trump una vez que él ha señalado que cancelará la participación de Estados Unidos en este acuerdo. Si Estados Unidos ignora o abandona este acuerdo, puede desalentar que otros países lo ratifiquen durante el 2017.

 

 7- La pandemia del Zika será global

En 2016 la OMS declaró LA emergencia global por EL Zika. LA ENFERMEDAD causa severos daños congénitos sin que exista actualmente vacuna para protegerse. Además de Brasil con 120 mil personas infectadas, otros 50 países YA FUERON AFECTADAS.

Ante advertencias de gobiernos de los peligros de áreas fuertemente afectadas por Zika, la actividad turística se reducirá en varios países y como resultado el crecimiento económico se desacelerará en varias de las economías dependientes del turismo en Latinoamérica y Sureste asiático.

8- Expansión de la realidad virtual

La realidad virtual proliferará a una tasa sin precedente y no sólo para los amantes del juego

Con un amplio rango de aplicaciones más allá del juego, en el segmento industrial, académico y comercial. Su aplicación se extenderá aún más en 2017 con Facebook lanzando un software que optimizará la realidad virtual para fines sociales con cuartos de chat y personas relacionándose con avatares digitales. También influirá la salida al mercado de dispositivos más económicos permitiendo que el consumidor medio se familiarice con esta tecnología.

 

9- PETRÓLEO SIGUE EN EL SUBSUELO

Los precios globales del petróleo permanecerán debajo de los 60 dólares por barril

El mercado petrolero continuará bien abastecido a pesar de los recortes en la producción acordados por la OPEP de 4.5 % o de 1.2 millones de barriles diarios. Con un escenario de fuerte oferta, el crecimiento de la demanda de petróleo continuará siendo débil con un precio por barril que permanecerá debajo de los 60 dólares por barril.

 

10- La nueva carrera espacial se acelerará

La exploración espacial está entrando a una nueva era dorada con un creciente número de países que están interesados en participar en la carrera espacial, incluyendo China, India, Japón y la Unión Europea, entre otros y también firmas privadas participando activamente como Blue Origin, Moon Express, recientemente fue la primera compañía en recibir la aprobación regulatoria para aterrizar en la Luna a finales del 2017.

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10 Predicciones Económicas en 2017

tiempo de lectura: 6 min