La herencia actual es peor que la de Menem en 1999

Las herencias económicas pesadas no son una “rara avis” en nuestra joven historia democrática -opina la consultora Economía & Regiones-. Una década y media atrás, la administración menemista también le dejaba una pesada herencia económica al nuevo gobierno del presidente De la Rúa. El estancamiento del nivel de actividad llevaba […]

Las herencias económicas pesadas no son una “rara avis” en nuestra joven historia democrática -opina la consultora Economía & Regiones-.

Una década y media atrás, la administración menemista también le dejaba una pesada herencia económica al nuevo gobierno del presidente De la Rúa. El estancamiento del nivel de actividad llevaba 5 trimestres, el PBI per cápita también caía, la tasa de empleo bajaba y el desempleo subía del 12% al 15%. Paralelamente, por la caída de los precios internacionales los precios mayoristas y los alimentos y bebidas empezaban a sufrir un proceso deflacionario con aumento de pobreza.

En este marco, comparar la herencia actual que deja este gobierno con la herencia que dejó la administración menemista sirve para determinar si la presente coyuntura es más o menos complicada que la de aquel entonces.

La herencia 2015 es más pesada que la herencia 1999, porque el derrotero actual es mucho más duradero y profundo que el de hace 16 años atrás.

A fines de los ‘90s, la recesión llevaba cinco trimestres y había margen de tiempo para tomar medidas de política económica capaces de revertir la situación. Las correcciones no se ejecutaron y la economía entró en crisis en 2002. La próxima administración deberá tomar medidas para reconstituir la competitividad, estimular la inversión, fomentar el empleo y volver a crecer.

COMPARANDO FOTOS: 2015 vs 1999
En el presente, el sector manufacturero viene siendo uno de los más perjudicados por la situación económica y arrastra 25 meses de caídas interanuales consecutivas. La fuerte caída de la actividad industrial viene siendo acompañada de un proceso de desinversión de los sectores productores que se mantienen consumiendo el stock de capital de los años anteriores, lo que contrae su frontera (capacidad) de producción. En 1999, si bien la industria se presentaba como uno de los sectores más golpeados y registraba 14 meses de caídas interanuales consecutivas, el output por trabajador crecía reflejando aumentos de productividad.

En 2015 el salario se encuentra mucho más desalineado con la productividad del trabajo que lo que estaba en 1999. La falta de competitividad que padece nuestro sistema económico es más difícil de resolver en la actualidad que hace 15 años; ya que una devaluación aislada no solucionaría el problema sino que trasladaría a precios y a salarios.

La actual gestión entrega una situación fiscal más delicada. Por un lado el rojo fiscal es más abultado hoy que en el ´99. El déficit primario bien medido suma 5% del PBI (2015) contra un superávit de 1% del PBI (1999). Sumando los intereses de deuda, el déficit financiero alcanza los 7,1% del PBI (2015) contra solo 1,4% del PBI (1999).

SEMANARIO ECONÓMICO E&R – Nº 191
Fecha: 16 de octubre de 2015

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La herencia actual es peor que la de Menem en 1999

tiempo de lectura: 2 min