El panorama actual es complejo aunque está lejos del 2001. En aquel entonces la convertibilidad estaba muy amenazada y no había apoyo del FMI, además de la bajísima gobernabilidad existente.
Por Eduardo L. Fracchia
El gradualismo adoptado por el gobierno fue una estrategia inteligente y arriesgada. No dejó del todo conforme a los mercados aunque si aparte de la sociedad. La tasa de interés en 40% expresa la complejidad de esta visión.
La vulnerabilidad del financiamiento externo fue crucial para aplicar el Plan B que significó ir al Fondo. Carrió comprendió la fragilidad de la situación. El contexto asustó al gobierno y por eso se acudió al Fondo asumiendo los costos políticos de su rechazo (al 80% de la población el FMI le cae mal).
Lo ocurrido en mayo no fue un cisne negro, era un tema anunciado tras la suba de las tasas de la Fed y pareciera que sorprendió al gobierno confiado en obtener recursos en el mercado.
Según el análisis del Fondo en su informe de diciembre pasado el dólar estaba atrasado. Mantener el dólar cercano a los 20 pesos sin dejarlo correr fue un error del Central, dadas las devaluaciones de otros países. Aunque se trata claramente de una corrida, se da en un momento donde el Central cuenta con muchas Reservas. No obstante, durante el mes de mayo, el Central perdió 6.500 millones de dólares pese a la fuerte devaluación.
El atesoramiento de dólares fue un preámbulo de la corrida cambiaria. El dólar, que se preveía bajo durante la administración Macri, buscó hasta el 18 de junio (edición del IEM), un nivel superior al de la convertibilidad y esto sorprendió a los analistas con una devaluación importante que, salvo Brasil, casi nadie tuvo.
El acuerdo con el FMI aporta sobre todo para auxiliar la balanza de pagos en el contexto de un déficit de cuenta corriente muy importante. El déficit por cuenta corriente es peligroso en 5 puntos del PIB. Este podría corregirse parcialmente con un dólar más cercano a los 30 pesos. Los recursos del Fondo, en principio, no se usan en su totalidad sino que constituyen una base de confianza a partir de la cual el Gobierno puede buscar otros aportes.
Las Reservas de libre disponibilidad son las que hay que monitorear junto con las totales. El gobierno quiere purificar ese stock sacando activos espurios que introdujo el kirchnerismo en el balance del BCRA.
La volatilidad del contexto financiero internacional actual no debería afectar en gran medida a la economía local, en parte porque el sistema financiero doméstico es pequeño. Éste solo financia una parte del sistema.
La cuestión de las Lebacs es un tema que se subestimó y ahora surge en la agenda desactivar esta bomba por el peso de los intereses que acumulan.
De ahora en adelante, el Poder ejecutivo no se financiará más con el BCRA (no hay “maquinita”). Esto es un cambio estructural que se puede reafirmar con el ajuste de la Carta Orgánica.
Respecto de las nuevas metas fiscales pautadas con el Fondo, es importante preguntarse el impacto a nivel país. Por otra parte: ¿el ajuste fiscal va a influir en las provincias?¿En qué magnitud?
Hay que ver como el Fondo percibe el enfoque hacia gastos sociales universales. En la propuesta del FMI quizás se cuestiona a los mismos procurando una aproximación más focalizada del gasto social que no se ha querido recortar.
En gastos de salud y educación, existe una superposición entre Nación y provincias que habrá que aclarar. Las provincias sentirán el ajuste y hay que reprogramar la relación con los gobernadores hecha en el acuerdo fiscal de fin del año pasado.
Por otra parte, la devaluación puede incrementar el déficit fiscal dada cierta indexación del gasto con el dólar.
No se habla de reforma laboral en el acuerdo con el Fondo. El problema del trabajo es un aspecto clave que debe resolver el gobierno. Atados al molde de los 40, el peronismo no quiere revisar el modelo sindical. La tensión está presente y el paro de la CGT del 25 se da en parte porque el gobierno no cedió en casi nada de las peticiones.
La dinámica futura del salario real es fundamental. Si el poder adquisitivo de los trabajadores cae fuerte, se pueden complicar las elecciones por el descenso del consumo. Será necesario que el gobierno acuerde paritarias justas revisando el 15% porque la inflación será el doble este año.
En cuanto a las nuevas metas de inflación, bajar la inflación en el 2019 a 17% no será fácil. Lo más probable es que se observe una tasa superior al 20%.
Los pronósticos macroeconómicos a mediano plazo son muy difíciles durante la corrida. Nadie puede con certeza afinar el lápiz en inflación, duración de la recesión, nivel del dólar, cuenta corriente y salario real. Se abren varios escenarios que se irán decantando hacia cierto consenso en agosto. Por ahora, los datos del REM son razonables para 2018 y 2019 pero hay dispersión entre los encuestados.
En materia de política, estamos ante un peronismo más agresivo que olfatea poder y mayor debilidad en el PRO.
El kirchnerismo hace bien manteniéndose con bajo perfil. Su menor visibilidad le suma puntos. Para CFK la realidad actual es un paraíso: el Fondo en medio de la escena y una recesión en puertas.
En el justicialismo no surgen aún liderazgos claros. La situación es similar a lo que ocurre en Brasil con gran dispersión de candidatos.
El radicalismo aún conserva un protagonismo importante en el gobierno puesto que en el Congreso posee el 50% de las bancas de Cambiemos. Debe buscar como influir más en las decisiones.
Ante un desgaste político del Presidente, un plan alternativo para que el oficialismo llegue mejor a las Paso, podría ser pensar en el reemplazo de Macri por María Eugenia Vidal. El Fondo del conurbano será recortado con un ajuste serio a la obra pública y la gobernadora lo sentirá con menor apoyo popular.
De acuerdo con la consultora Isonomía, la imagen positiva menos la negativa da cero para el conjunto de los principales políticos. Este indicador bajó mucho en el último tiempo, lo cual expresa la menor credibilidad en la clase gobernante.
En resumen, el estancamiento actual es fruto de la subida del dólar y de la tasa de interés en una primera ronda. Con el apretón fiscal (obras públicas, provincias y menor sueldo real a empleados públicos) se puede profundizar el ciclo macro adverso. Este período de recesión corta una buena racha de 7 trimestres de crecimiento. Se especula que el crecimiento volverá en 2019 de forma moderada, esperando una buena cosecha y muñeca en la gestión.
Pareciera que esta administración es una suerte de transición después de un gobierno que dejó una herencia muy distorsiva. El saldo será un período en el cual se procuró llegar a equilibrios en el frente fiscal y externo con un crecimiento promedio mediocre para los cuatro años. Esperamos que la próxima gestión, a partir de la buena orientación general de Cambiemos, procure una meta de 4% de crecimiento o con una inflación cercana a 10% que permita llevar la pobreza por debajo del 20% en 2023.
Por Eduardo L. Fracchia
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