Crecen las exportaciones de ganadería bovina pero la producción mantendrá la tendencia negativa
La ganadería bovina cerró el primer trimestre con un aumento del 1,5 por ciento y una faena total de 3,11 millones de cabezas. El aumento fue impulsado principalmente por las exportaciones que acumularon un crecimiento del 47%, principalmente por mayores ventas a China y una baja base de comparación (el primer trimestre de 2014 habían caído un 23% respecto a 2013), según un informe de abeceb dado a conocer hoy.
El trabajo advierte que, más allá de esta mejora, todo indica que este año no se observará una recuperación de la producción bovina. Javier Cao, analista de abeceb, explicó que “el consumo interno mantendría en niveles bajos en 2015 debido principalmente a un estancamiento en el poder adquisitivo de la población. También influirá, pero en menor medida, la tendencia de largo plazo de un incremento en el consumo de carne porcina y aviar, en desmedro de los cortes vacunos”, aclaró.
De todas formas, no se observaría una reducción de la magnitud de 2014 cuando el consumo per cápita cayó un 7,3% debido al fuerte aumento de precios que mostraron los cortes vacunos entre fines de 2013 y principios de 2014 (en parte producto de la devaluación de la moneda).
Por otro lado, se espera que continúe la tendencia positiva en las exportaciones, con un fuerte incremento de las ventas a China y en menor medida a Rusia. No obstante, las ventas externas continúan limitadas y aún con un crecimiento estimado en torno al 10% este año, representarían apenas un 9% de la producción total, muy por debajo del promedio histórico de 15%, aún en un contexto de menor consumo local.
Javier Cao sostuvo que:
“El sector tiene la mirada puesta en 2016 y que un posible levantamiento de restricciones a la exportación cambie completamente las perspectivas”.
Si bien en un escenario de recuperación del poder adquisitivo podría esperarse un moderado repunte del consumo doméstico de carne vacuna aun en un escenario de pérdida de participación frente a las carnes porcina y aviar, las mayores perspectivas están en el mercado externo, con la apertura de nuevos mercados.
Pero a diferencia de lo que ocurre con la demanda interna, el mercado internacional muestra excelentes perspectivas.
La demanda global se mantiene firme y la Argentina se vio beneficiada por la posibilidad de participar de la cuota europea 481 para la exportación de carne de feedlot a un precio muy superior al promedio de exportación y con un arancel de importación de 0% (un cupo de 48 mil toneladas anuales por el que compiten Argentina, Uruguay, Canadá, Australia, Estados Unidos y Nueva Zelanda).
Además, un fallo de la OMC ha obligado a la reapertura del mercado de Estados Unidos, tras un bloqueo de 14 años derivado de la aparición de un brote aftosa.
“Por la gran tradición ganadera del país y las excelentes condiciones naturales, se descuenta que con mejores condiciones Argentina podría volver a transformarse en un jugador relevante en el mercado de carne bovina a nivel mundial, especialmente si se revisa la política de restricción a las exportaciones”, destacó.
Por último, Cao precisó que “tras la caída de los precios de los granos, la actividad ganadera se ha transformado en una opción relativamente más atractiva, especialmente tras la recuperación de los precios del ganado en pie observada en los últimos meses”.
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