Los granos siguen en baja. El clima en EEUU está ayudando a los cultivos. En el caso del trigo las lluvias habrían ayudado a estabilizar la condición de los cultivos, mientras que a medida que la siembra de maíz se larga en estados del norte y oeste de ese país, el avance de la siembra gana ritmo, y se espera que esta semana se ponga al día.
Por Dante Romano
Sembrar temprano es el primer paso para pensar en buenos rindes potenciales del maíz, y en las semanas anteriores, cuando la implantación arrancó lenta, los precios sumaron prima climática. Ahora que el ritmo de está normalizando, esa prima desaparece. Mientras tanto la soja se muestra un tanto más firme, ya que un avance normalizado para las labores de maíz implica menos riesgo de que área inicialmente destinada al cereal pase a la soja.
En el mientras tanto los operadores de maíz vienen siguiendo con preocupación los casos de gripe aviar que se están detectando en EEUU. La forma de controlar estos focos es con matanzas de animales, y por otro lado en casos similares, por más que resulte muy extraño que el virus pase a los humanos por ingesta de comida, es normal que el consumo baje. Se habla de que podrían sacrificarse casi 10 mill. de aves en Norteamérica si la situación se sale de control. Mientras tanto lo precios debilitados del maíz por este factor le darán aires a la industria de etanol que verá reducidos sus costos de materia prima.
En el caso del trigo otra amenaza para los precios es que Rusia eliminaría antes de tiempo los derechos de exportación de este cereal. Ello llevaría a que vuelva un oferente de trigo barato que viene generando gran competencia en la zona del Mar Negro y Asia. El objetivo de Rusia es que la producción aumente fuertemente generando mayor participación en mercados del exterior, pero el riesgo es desabastecer el mercado interno. Por ello están estudiando otros mecanismos como cuotas de exportación o retenciones móviles. Cualquier parecido con Argentina es coincidencia.
Es importante destacar que esto sucede en una semana donde el dólar sufrió una devaluación importante. Ante el menor crecimiento que lo esperado del PBI norteamericano (0,2% contra 2,2% del trimestre anterior) la reserva federal pondría en espera el programa para aumentar las tasas de interés. El dólar más firme, en un contexto internacional de otras monedas debilitadas, especialmente el euro, la reactivación de EEUU se detuvo. Esto genera un marco alcista para los commodities en general.
A más largo plazo, tendremos que seguir monitoreando el desempeño de la demanda, el clima en EEUU, y el ritmo de venta de Argentina en materia de soja. Todos estos elementos pueden darnos chances de recuperación, especialmente en un mercado que hoy tiene descontados muchos datos bajistas en los niveles de precio. Seguir presionando a la baja exige que el flujo de novedades negativas continúe.
En lo que hace a nuestro mercado, la cosecha gruesa avanza con la soja superando el 60% trillado con rinde promedio de 30 qq/ha y el maíz en 28% trillado y un rinde promedio nacional en unos 87 qq/ha, de acuerdo a la Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires. De hecho los rindes reportados por el servicio GEA de la Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario muestran valores todavía superiores para la región núcleo.
Sin embargo podemos decir que con el 60% de la soja trillada, la presión de cosecha comenzará a mermar lentamente. En tanto el Ministerio de Agricultura muestra que los exportadores e industriales habían cerrado negocios para recibir granos por un total de 16,4 mill.tt. contra 12,8 mill.tt. del año anterior a la misma fecha. Sin embargo sólo algo menos de la mitad del tonelaje comprometido tenía precio, unas 8,9 mill.tt. El tonelaje con precio fijado del año pasado era similar, 8,4 mill.tt. Los exportadores y fábricas pueden utilizar la soja recibida a fijar, por ello esto no implica problemas a la hora de cumplir sus compromisos. Sin embargo para que el productor pueda cobrar, necesita vender. Cierto es que existen operatorias que permiten recibir créditos con garantía sobre mercadería a fijar, pero esto no sería tan relevante como para explicar la diferencia. Creemos que esto va a llevar a que la presión de ventas continúe, ya que este año hará falta vender más soja que el año pasado para financiar los vencimientos y gastos de cosecha que otras campañas.
Mientras tanto tras la publicación de ROE VERDE de maíz y con un programa de embarques anunciado importante, los exportadores están más presentes en este mercado pagando precios similares a la paridad de exportación, pero ese valor no tienta a los productores. De toda formas, hay mucha mercadería comprada, pendiente de recepción. Los compradores no deberían estar nerviosos. Si lo están puede ser por problema puntuales de que algún barco llegue y no tengan grano suficiente. Pero esto podría ser algo que rápidamente se supere.
La otra discusión es la implantación de trigo en nuestro país. Mientras que la opinión predominante es una baja del área sembrada, las diferencias pasan por la magnitud de la misma. En la zona núcleo maicera/sojera, se habla de mermas superiores al 20%. Hacia el sur del país, el área repetiría, y en esta región se implanta casi la mitad del trigo Argentino. La cuestión es que con estos precios y costos, el trigo debería rendir entre 25 y 40 qq/ha para ser negocio en campos propios, lo cual es una locura. Sin embargo si las promesas de campaña se dan y se eliminan restricciones comerciales (ROE VERDE) y derechos de exportación, este cultivo podría terminar siendo muy atractivo. Esta semana en el tradicional seminario A TODO TRIGO de la Federación de Acopiadores, Mauricio Macri fue muy enfático en cuanto a esta posibilidad, indicando que la caída de recaudación que generaría se compensaría con mayores ingresos por ganancias gracias a la mayor actividad económica. Sin embargo la situación del sector producto no admite un error por tomar una mala apreciación política.
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