La industria cayó 2,1% en enero y acumula 18 meses recesivos

En un contexto de estancamiento interno y fuerte baja en las exportaciones, fundamentalmente a Brasil –principal socio de la Argentina–, la producción industrial permanece en caída y sumó en enero 18 meses de bajas consecutivas, informó el Indec.  Proyectan una baja anual de 2,4%. Las consultoras privadas concuerdan, pero  marcan […]

En un contexto de estancamiento interno y fuerte baja en las exportaciones, fundamentalmente a Brasil –principal socio de la Argentina–, la producción industrial permanece en caída y sumó en enero 18 meses de bajas consecutivas, informó el Indec.  Proyectan una baja anual de 2,4%.

Las consultoras privadas concuerdan, pero  marcan un panorama aún más dramático: la consultora FIEL, por ejemplo, marcó una merma interanual de 5,4%, lejos del  2,1% que acusa el Indec. En la medición desestacionalizada, enero contra diciembre marcó una suba de 1%, frente al 1,8% adelantado por FIEL.

Al igual que viene ocurriendo desde el año pasado, el sector que más incide en la caída de la actividad manufacturera es el automotriz, que el mes pasado registró una caída de 28,7% interanual y de 38,4% en relación con diciembre. En la comparación mensual, influyen las paradas técnicas que muchas empresas hacen en enero.

La industria textil también reflejó una fuerte merma el mes pasado en términos interanuales, al caer 10,8%, en tanto que el sector de metales básicos mostró una baja de 3,5% respecto de enero de 2014. En ese sector, la producción de acero crudo se derrumbó 3,8% y la de aluminio, 2,6%. A su vez, los productos de caucho y plástico tampoco fueron beneficiados en enero. El rubro mostró una caída de 9,5%, afectado por la abrupta baja de 33,3% en la fabricación de neumáticos y de 4,3% en las manufacturas del plástico.

El sector de edición e impresión se desplomó 5,4% respecto del mismo mes del año pasado y lo mismo le ocurrió a la fabricación de cigarrillos, que fue 9,2% menor que en enero de 2014.

El rubro alimenticio mostró una suba interanual de 1,6%, aunque cayó 17,8% respecto de diciembre. La industria química también registró una suba de 1,1% interanual y una baja mensual de 2,3%.

“Durante enero la industria prolongó el proceso recesivo iniciado durante el último trimestre de 2013; el tercero, el más largo y el de mayor magnitud desde la crisis de 2001-2002”, remarcó la consultora Ledesma sobre las cifras del Indec. De acuerdo con sus números, la actividad marcó una caída de 3,6% anual para enero, “el menor nivel de actividad mensual desde enero de 2010”. En tanto, la variación respecto de diciembre fue positiva en apenas 0,2%.

De cara a lo que resta de 2015, Ledesma consideró que “dado que no se espera que la administración CFK realice un ajuste profundo de su esquema de política este año, lo esperable es que el mal desempeño de la industria se prolongue durante ese período”.

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La industria cayó 2,1% en enero y acumula 18 meses recesivos

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